In the spring of 2019, we should expect aggravation of the military-political situation on the Tajik-Afghan border, in Tajikistan and in the South-East of Uzbekistan.
It is unlikely that the fighting of the ISIS and the Tajik opposition will become large-scale one, since both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are members of the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” and of the “Collective Security Treaty Organization”, and the charts of these organizations provide for “strengthening peace, international and regional security, collective defense of independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty of member states”. The potential of member countries is relatively higher than that of Iraq and Syria.
It is clear that neither the Russian Federation nor China will allow the “infiltration” of the war in the region of Central Asia, while the ISIS' attempts to find and capture new “food bases” will be doomed.
The article is available in Ukrainian
