Victor Hvozd
Recently, the situation around the Korean Peninsula has significantly worsened, which could lead to an armed conflict in the Asia-Pacific region with direct consequences for Ukraine.
Thus, on 5 August 2017, the UN Security Council tightened sanctions against North Korea in connection with its launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The UN Security Council's resolution imposes an embargo on North Korea's export of iron and lead and their ores, as well as any seafood, including fish. In addition, the establishment of joint ventures with North Korea is prohibited, and the list of its citizens who are not allowed to travel abroad is also being expanded.
The decision of the UN Security Council caused a sharply negative reaction from the government of the DPRK, which called it “an encroachment on North Korea's sovereignty”. Proceeding from this, Pyongyang has announced its firm intentions to continue the steps to strengthen the country's nuclear missile potential. At the same time, the DPRK's leadership has strengthened aggressive rhetoric towards the USA, which is considered by Pyongyang to be the main initiator and driving force of the UN Security Council's sanctions policy. According to North Korean media, the United States is trying to isolate and destroy the DPRK.
Along with this, North Korea came up with yet another threat of the possibility of a missile strike on the territory of the United States. According to the North Korean state agency KCNA of August 10, “The DPRK Armed Forces are developing a plan to launch four medium-range ballistic missiles in the direction of the US military base on the island of Guam,” which can be put into action by the decision of the country's leader Kim Jong-un at any moment. According to the Commander of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army, General Kim Rak-gyom, the “Hwasong-12” missiles will fly over the territory of Japan and fall into the water at a distance of 30–40 km from the island of Guam.
In response to such actions of the DPRK, US President D. Trump warned Pyongyang about Washington's readiness to take tough measures against North Korea — “like the world has never seen”. He also reminded about the UA's actions to renew and modernize its nuclear potential, which is “more powerful than ever” today. In turn, US Secretary of Defense J. Mattis called on the DPRK to abandon isolation, as well as to stop work on the creation of nuclear weapons and other actions that “would lead to the end of the North Korean regime and destruction of its people”. According to J. Mattis, any of the DPRK “regime's actions will continue to be grossly overmatched by ours and would lose any arms race or conflict it initiates”.
The decisiveness of the USA's positions on this issue is confirmed by reports of influential American media about the Pentagon's preparation of a plan for a preemptive strike against 20 DPRK's missile bases. B-1B strategic bombers from the US Air Force Andersen base on the island of Guam can be involved in this task. They will operate under the cover of fighters in cooperation with long-range radar detection aircrafts and air tankers. Since May of this year, B-1B bombers from the Andersen airbase were 11 times involved in carrying out exercises, during which the questions of conducting strikes against the DPRK were worked out. The latest of such exercises was held on 7 August, 2017.
This development of events significantly increases the likelihood of an armed conflict between the United States and the DPRK in late August – early September this year. Thus, North Korea's launch of ballistic missiles in the direction of the US base would lead to Washington's mandatory military reaction, since otherwise it would undermine the position of the USA as the leading center of power in the world.
At the same time, the United State's military actions against the DPRK would inevitably provoke a negative reaction from China, which considers North Korea to be its zone of influence and has an agreement with it on mutual assistance in the sphere of security. In turn, this could put the USA and China on the brink of military confrontation. Despite the declaration of the USA's and PRC's plans to build a strategic partnership between the two countries, China has been harshly reacting to any manifestations of US military activity in the APR, and even more so — in the Korean Peninsula.
This would create another source of instability in the world, which in its scale and consequences for the security of the whole world would far exceed Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine. The result would be a diversion of the world community's attention from Ukraine to the situation in the Asia-Pacific region, which would untie Russia's hands in realizing its neo-imperial policy. The emergence of such a situation could be used by Russia both to attack the Baltic countries and to expand the scale of its armed aggression against Ukraine, including with the aim of “finalizing the Ukrainian issue”.
In fact, the conditions for this have already been created within the framework of Russia's preparation of the strategic command post exercise “West-2017”, which is planned to be held on the territory of Belarus and Russia in September this year. Thus, since the beginning of August 2017, Russia has been building up its troops on the territory of Belarus, as well as in northwestern, western and southwestern regions of the Russian Federation, including near the border with Ukraine in Voronezh and Rostov regions. In particular, there is an active transfer of military equipment by rail, which in its scope exceeds the scale of the preparation of Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine in 2014.
According to the plans of the Russian leadership, preliminarily worked out during the comprehensive inspection of the Russian Armed Forces during the winter training period in March–April 2017, during the “West-2017” exercise they are going to master simultaneous military operations on the North-Western (Baltic) and South-Western (Black Sea and Ukrainian ) strategic directions.
Taking into consideration the above circumstances, there are two main variants (scenarios) of Russia's military actions against Ukraine, namely:
A limited offensive operation aimed at seizing the entire territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as well as providing preconditions for further creating of a land corridor to the Crimea and Trans-Dniester.
This task can be entrusted to the 20th (HQ in Voronezh), the 8th (HQ in Rostov-on-Don) and the 49th (HQ in Stavropol) Combined Arms Armies of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, as well as the grouping of Russian troops in the Crimea and units of the reinforcement of the Airborne Forces. At the same time, the grouping of Russian troops in Belorussia and in the western and northwestern regions of Russia, involved in the “West-2017” exercise, would fulfill the tasks of demonstrating the power to intimidate Ukraine, exert pressure on it and force the Ukrainian side to disperse forces. At this, as before, the offensive operation of the RF Armed Forces in the Donbas would be masked by the actions of “local militia men”;
Russia's full-scale military invasion to Ukraine from the Northern (Belorussian) direction with the ultimate goal of restoring pro-Russian government in Ukraine and its actual occupation. The scenario of such RF's actions could consist of several stages, including:
The first — provocation of unrest in Kyiv on the basis of socio-economic and political problems. Such riots could be organized both through pro-Russian forces in Ukraine and through individual Ukrainian parties and movements. At this, to Russia would be important the very fact of the beginning of the riots, not their real mass character, as it was during the first and second Maidans;
The second — radicalization of the anti-government forces in the capital of Ukraine and their transfer to the phase of armed confrontation. For this purpose, with the participation of special groups of provocateurs disguised as units of the Ukrainian Police, the Armed Forces and the National Guard, as well as “Ukrainian nationalists”, attacks on participants in rallies and demonstrations, including with using firearms, may be committed. This is how Russia tried to make a coup in Montenegro last autumn;
The third — a military invasion of Ukraine from the Northern (Belorussian) direction under the guise of Ukrainian troops that “came to the aid of the insurgent Ukrainian people”. The main role in the fulfillment of this task could be assigned to the 1st Tank Army (HQ in Moscow region), part of the forces of the 20th Combined Arms Army and the units added to them from the interior regions of Russia. Besides, in the first echelon of Russian troops could be mobile armed units from militants of Ukrainian origin with documents of citizens of Ukraine, in Ukrainian military uniforms and with Ukrainian flags.
The grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas would be bound by the intensification of the armed confrontation in the conflict zone. In turn, the movement of units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Kyiv from western regions of the country would be blocked by Russian troops on the main thoroughfares by landing airborne forces.
At the same time, in order to distract the United States, NATO and the EU's attention from Ukraine, as well as to disperse their efforts, active measures to demonstrate force would be conducted near the borders of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as part of the “West-2017” exercise;
The fourth — blocking and seizure of buildings of the central authorities and power structures of Ukraine in Kyiv. At this, all attempts of resistance, including by the peaceful population, would be resolutely suppressed with the use of military force (in the future, responsibility for the victims would be assigned to “actions of the power structures of Ukraine and Ukrainian nationalists”).
The fifth — proclamation of the “interim government of Ukraine” followed by holding of parliamentary and presidential “elections” under the control of the Russian Federation and at rifle point of Russian troops.
The implementation of such a scenario would allow the Putin regime to declare about “having resolved all problems around Ukraine” and “establishing good neighborly relations between Russia and Ukraine.” Proceeding from this, Moscow would raise the issue of “no grounds for maintaining sanctions against Russia”.
This issue becomes particularly relevant for V. Putin's regime due to the introduction by the USA in August this year of new sanctions against Russia, which are critical for the latter, and also because of Moscow's actual failure to take adequate countermeasures in the economic sphere. Under such circumstances, Russia's only instrument for exerting pressure on the United States and Europe is to demonstrate its military force and to threaten to use it against their partners from the countries of the former USSR, first of all Ukraine and Georgia.
