September 16, 2019

Afghanistan: The Eve of the Presidential Election

The fall of the central government in Kabul will pose a real threat to the security of the entire region of Central Asia and Middle East


Vadym Volokhov

The military and political situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated significantly in 2019. Taliban talks stopped, Washington will continue to support the current Afghan regime and seek to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan.

Besides, the current situation should be realistically assessed and it should be understood that if the USA withdraws its troops from Afghanistan, a “chain” reaction will begin when Western European countries will have either to withdraw their troops or to negotiate with Russia and countries of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) and the CSTO (Organization of the Collective Security Treaty) on their involvement in the conflict.

In this case, Washington will find itself in a rather difficult situation: after all, its activities have proved ineffective, and the issue of ending the war in Afghanistan — helpless.

The fall of the Republic of Afghanistan, led by President Ashraf Ghani, will pose a real threat to the security of not only its neighbors but the entire region of Central Asia and Middle East.

With the fall of central government in Kabul, processes such as the migration of large numbers of refugees, cross-border crime, increase in the flow of drugs to Western Europe through the Central Asian republics and Russia, and arms and human trafficking, will rapidly accelerate.

The fall of Kabul will provoke and intensify the activities of terrorist organizations, such as the Islamic State, radical movements in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and the rise of anti-Israel sentiments.

The article is available in Ukrainian