September 23, 2019

Afghanistan: The Old Guard Relies on Youth

Significant changes are expected in Afghanistan in the near future


Vadym Volokhov

September 28, 2019, the next presidential election will take place in Afghanistan. In this regard, it is considered appropriate to analyze the political situation in the country and the alignment of forces.

In recent years, the political course of the country has almost entirely depended on the activities of politicians and much less — on political processes. After four decades of active armed struggle, bloody upheavals and conflicts, a whole generation of political figures and military leaders has been born and has grown in the country, which has been determining and are still determining Afghanistan's policy.

Most of them originate from old Pashtun and Tajik clans. Certainly, during the armed struggle against the Soviet troops and the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan, or against the Taliban, many of the clan leaders either died or left the political arena.

Almost all influential politicians have left behind no less influential heirs today. Therefore, the existence of political clans in the country where tribal relations still play a major role has become an integral part of the present moment, when power is inherited through the party line.

It is clear that the generation of young politicians is influenced by the authority of their parents, but each of them has already acquired education, mainly abroad, and gained own combat or political experience. Therefore, we should expect that the future of Afghanistan in the next 3–7 years will be characterized by new political parties, alliances and transformations.

The article is available in Ukrainian