March 6, 2017

Week's News Express Analysis № 09(40)/03

 

LAST WEEK'S KEY FACTORS AND MAIN TRENDS
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SITUATION AROUND UKRAINE
(February 27–March 05, 2017)

 

I. Major-Profile Events in the Development of the Situation around Ukraine

The situation around Ukraine remains a major problem in the development of increasingly escalating relations between the USA and Russia. The reasons for this are: on the one hand — Donald Trump's (under pressure from the US Congress) giving up the pro-Russian populist rhetoric, on the other — the failure of Moscow's expectations about the possibility of the resumption of cooperation with Washington, happening against the background of the conservation of negative trends in the Russian economy.

Joint Address to the US Congress by President D. Trump

Evidence of these problems was Russia's reaction to the key (relating to the security sector) aspects of Mr. Trump's Joint Address to the US Congress on 28 February 2017 (for the first time as President of the USA). Although there was no direct mentioning of Russia or Ukraine, the speech was quite indicative in nature from the point of view of the future of the USA-Russia relations.

At this, the US President announced the plans to significantly increase spending on national defense (by 54 billion US dollars — to 689 billion US dollars). He also reiterated his position on NATO's key importance for the United States of America. At this, Mr. Trump once again stressed the need for strict observance by the member countries of the Alliance of their obligations regarding the defense spending.

Dan Coats testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee on his nomination to be the next Director of National Intelligence

Thus, Donald Trump has actually confirmed the USA's attitude to Russia as a potential enemy, against whom NATO is directed. More clearly this position was voiced by the candidate for the post of Director of National Intelligence of the United States Dan Coats during congressional hearings on 28 February 2017.

In particular, he expressed concern about Russia's actions for “self-assertion on the world stage”, which is accompanied by interference with the internal affairs of other countries. With this in mind, D. Coats announced the plans to provide the special commission of the US Congress with all the documents of US intelligence agencies on Russia's attempts to influence the results of the US presidential elections.

Another strong statement about Putin's regime was made by US Ambassador to the United Nations N. Haley. She said Washington was ready to “challenge” Russia in case of the Kremlin's illegal actions. In this regard, N. Haley confirmed the USA's negative attitude to Russia's annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea and provoking tensions in the Donbas.

At this, March 2, 2017, the Committee on Appropriations of the US House of Representatives approved the decision to allocate to Ukraine 150 million US dollars (of the total 350 million US dollars of the USA's military aid in 2017), including acquisition of the lethal weapons of a defensive nature (except MANPADS).

Donald Trump and members of his administration's statements, as well as the decision of the US Congress regarding Ukraine were perceived by Moscow as a threat to Russia's security and the beginning of a new arms race. Thus, in this context were stressed the USA and NATO's actions to build up their military presence in the East of Europe, as well as providing assistance to the countries of the former Soviet Union to counteract the Russian Federation. At this, the allocation of money for Ukraine's military needs was seen as “the USA's moving into the category of parties to the conflict in Ukraine”.

According to Russian experts, the USA and other NATO countries' total expenditures on defense in 2018 will be about 900 billion US dollars, which will allow to have the forces of more than 3.5 million people and 4.3 million people of military reserve. At the same time, Russia, because of the country's financial problems, is reducing its defense spending by 27.1 % in 2017 and by further 4 % in 2018. In these circumstances, during the latest “government hour” in the State Duma, Russian Defense Minister S. Shoigu spoke about Moscow's plans to “respond asymmetrically”, including by building up nuclear missile forces.

 

II. Russia's Armed Aggression against Ukraine

In this situation, V. Putin's regime is stepping up pressure on Ukraine and its Western partners by increasing tension around the conflict zone in the Donbas, and by further militarization of the Crimean Peninsula.

2.1. The East of Ukraine (The ATO zone)

Within the given Moscow's policy, lately there has been another escalation in the war zone in the Donbas. Evidence of this is the increase in the number of attacks on the ATO forces' positions and civilian settlements with a peak intensity of more than 100 a day. The most difficult situation remains at Avdiivka.

At the same time, in order to demonstrate Russia's possible recognition of the breakaway republics in the Donbas, from March 1, 2017, the Russian ruble was introduced as the basic unit of payment in “LPR”. Besides, the leaders of the self-proclaimed republics in the Donbas have announced the “nationalization” of Ukrainian enterprises in their territories, as well as a complete reorientation of the local economy to Russia.

The separatists' actions have been openly supported by Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov and Russian President's Press Secretary D. Peskov. According to them, the “DPR” and “LPR “…had no choice, because they had been rejected by Ukraine”. In turn, according to Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs L. Kalashnikov, “...Russia may recognize the breakaway republics if Ukraine refuses to implement the Minsk Agreements”.

These issues were discussed during the meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk on 1 March, 2017. Ukraine regarded Russia's recognition of documents of the “DPR” and “LPR” and “nationalization” of the Ukrainian enterprises in the occupied territories as a violation of the Minsk Agreements. However, Ukraine's position has not been accepted either by Moscow or the separatists. Furthermore, they demanded from Ukraine to let representatives of the self-proclaimed “republics” to Ukrainian enterprises in the liberated areas of the Donbas.

As a result of the negotiations, it was agreed to terminate the shelling of the Donetsk Filtration Station and to withdraw the troops near Stanytsya Luhanska from March 7 this year. However, the separatists' representatives actually disavowed these decisions. In the words of the representative of the “LPR” V. Dayneho, in his interview with the Russian edition “Sputnik” (one of the main instruments of the Russia's information war), “...the negotiations on arms withdrawal have got into a dead end”.

 

2.2. The Crimean Peninsula

Throughout the week, in the Crimea and around it, there continued training of the Black Sea Fleet. In particular, small anti-submarine corvettes “Suzdalets” and “Muromets” were practicing the tasks of seeking and conditional destroying of the enemy submarine. Besides, on 3 March 2017, Russians were practicing airborne landing near the town of Dzhankoy in the North of the Crimea. During the exercise, they intensified air reconnaissance of the adjacent to the Crimea areas of the mainland Ukraine, using helicopters and “Rys” gas aerostats.

However, within the framework of improving the combat potential of the RF Armed Forces grouping in the occupied Crimea, they continued rearming the 1096th Air Defense Missile Regiment (Sevastopol) with “Buk-M2” SAMs. In the future the Regiment is planned to receive more modern “Buk-M3” systems. Apart from this, in the second half of this year, one more Air Defense Regiment in the Crimea will be rearmed with S-400 SAMs..

Moscow pays special attention to improving the reliability of the personnel of the Russian troops in the Crimea. At the beginning of 2017 it actually completed the process of transferring to other regions of Russia (mainly to the North of Russia), or retiring to the reserve of the former military servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who went over to Russia's side after the annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea in March 2014.

 

On March 02, began a sudden inspection of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces

2.3. Other Aspects of Russia's Actions against Ukraine and the West

Along with the above-mentioned aspects, one of the basic elements of Russia's pressure on Ukraine and our Western partners is the Kremlin's demonstration of force on the Baltic, Central European and Black Sea operational directions. Thus, after the unannounced inspections of the VKS (Russia's Aerospace Forces) and the Western Military District of the Russian Federation's Armed Forces in February 2017, on 2 March 2017, there began a sudden inspection of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces.

During sudden inspections were alerted the units of the Russian Armed Forces stationed in the occupied Crimea, and in the Karachay-Cherkessia, Dagestan and Chechnya. All in all, in the inspection were engaged about 3 thousand military servicemen, as well as more than a thousand units of military and special equipment, including T-72B3 tanks, BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles and BTR-82A armored vehicles. They were mastering marches to training grounds, rejecting attacks of enemy special forces units, and combat actions practicing.

At the same time, there were trainings of the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army of the VKS, which is subordinate to the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces. They were mastering relocation of tactical aviation to airfields of operational deployment, bringing anti-aircraft missile systems to combat positions, rejecting enemy air strikes and retaliation. About 40 Su-30M2 and Su-27SM3, Su-30SM and Su-34 aircrafts, Mi-8MTPR helicopters and “Pantsyr-S1” and “S-300PM” SAMs participated in the trainings.

On March 03, started a joint exercise of the Airborne Troops of Russia and Special Operations Forces of Belarus

Besides, on 3 March 2017, near the Russian city of Pskov there started an active phase of the Russia-Belarus exercise with the participation of units of the Airborne Troops of the Russian Armed Forces and Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Belarus. According to official reports of the Russian and Belarusian Defense Ministries, the exercise is conducted within the framework of response to the USA and NATO's strengthening their military presence in Europe, as well as part of preparing the “West-2017” SCPE.

At the same time, Russia continues to use elements of “energy wars” against Europe and Ukraine. Since the end of February 2017, the Russian company “Gazprom” has significantly reduced the volume of gas supply to the entrance to the Ukrainian gas transportation system through the gas-measuring station “Sudzha”. These facts have been brought to the attention of the European Commission in the online mode.

 

III. Ukraine, International Organizations and Leading Western Countries

As a counterbalance to Moscow's provocative actions, international organizations and Western countries have reaffirmed their support to Ukraine.

3.1. International Organizations

UN. 28 February, 2017, within the framework of the 34th Session of the UN Council on Human Rights in Geneva's Palais des Nations, there was a meeting themed “The Human Rights Situation in the Crimea”. The event was attended by over 70 representatives of UN member countries and several international non-governmental organizations. The participants condemned Russia's actions for the annexation of the Crimea and persecution of the Putin regime's opponents in the Crimean Peninsula.

The European Union. Last week, the EU leaders took important steps in the procedure for the completion of the process of the visa liberalization for Ukrainians. As a result of the negotiations between the EU Council, the European Parliament and the European Commission on 28 February, 2017, a preliminary positive decision was reached on the matter. March 2, 2017, that decision was approved at the meeting of the Committee of Permanent Representatives (Ambassadors) of the European Union.

According to the official procedure and the EU work plans, the issue of the visa liberalization for Ukrainians should be considered: on 9 March 2017 — by the European Parliament's Committee on Freedoms, Justice and Home Affairs; April 5, 2017 — at the plenary session of the European Parliament; April 26, 2017 — at the meeting of the EU Ambassadors; May 11, 2017 — by the Council of the European Union. The signing of the Agreement is expected on 15 May 2017, and its entry into force — roughly in the first half of June 2017.

On March 01, 5 Black Hawk helicopters from the 10th Aviation Brigade of the US Armed Forces arrived in Latvia

NATO. March 2, 2017, NATO Secretary General J. Stoltenberg confirmed NATO's openness to Ukraine. However, according to him, Ukraine must itself decide on taking this step and to fulfill relevant conditions of membership. In this regard, J. Stoltenberg denied Russia's accusations of the NATO leadership's violation of the commitments taken during the collapse of the USSR. According to the Secretary General of NATO, such obligations did not include the Alliance's refusal to accept new members.

Measures are being taken to strengthen the USA and NATO's military presence in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and in the Baltics. In particular, on 1 March 2017, 5 Black Hawk helicopters from the 3rd Aviation Battalion of the 10th Aviation Brigade of the United States Armed Forces arrived in Latvia.

Besides, in April 2017, the German Air Forces' Deployable Control and Reporting Centre (DCRC) will be deployed in Latvia. The Center is a part of the NATO airspace control system.

 

3.2. Leading Western Countries

The USA. The US Congress continues steps in order to obtain opportunities to strengthen its influence on D. Trump and stripping his entourage from individuals associated with Russia. On 1 March, 2017, at the meeting of the Intelligence Committee of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, it was decided to initiate an investigation of the facts of secret negotiations of members of D. Trump's electoral headquarters, as well as members of his administration with Moscow.

In particular, such accusations were put forward against US Attorney General J. Sessions, US President's senior adviser and son-in law J. Kushner, as well as two other advisors of D. Trump's election headquarters — J. Gordon and C. Page.

Fiona Hill, Director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution

With this in mind, Donald Trump is implementing a new staff policy providing for appointment to positions in his administration of the Russian Federation's opponents.

In particular, the post of the US National Security Council's Curator of Russia and Europe was offered to a senior researcher at the Brookings Institution F. Hill — well-known for her negative attitude to Putin. According to the American political consultant J. Bremmer, judging from the latest appointments made by D. Trump, “any talks about the possibility of changing the nature of the relationship between the USA and Russia are becoming pointless”.

A meeting of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany Sigmar Gabriel with President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko

Germany. Germany is paying special attention to the development of the situation around Ukraine. Thus, during his visit to Ukraine (March 2–3, 2017), Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany S. Gabriel expressed his concern about another intensification of the armed conflict in the Donbas. According to him, this situation is a challenge to the security of the whole Europe, which needs the Federal Republic of Germany's continuing efforts to promote peace in the East of Ukraine. At this, S. Gabriel found Russia responsible for the continuation of the conflict. Evidence of this was called Russia's recognizing passports of the “DPR” and “LPR” as well as Moscow's approving the separatist leaders' actions to “nationalize” Ukrainian enterprises. He also stressed the need for the unconditional implementation of the Minsk Agreements, without any demands to Ukraine to make compromises in favor of Russia. In view of the above-mentioned circumstances, S. Gabriel supported Ukraine's initiative to strengthen the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in the Donbas, including through supplying it with technical equipment.

A meeting of the Foreign Ministers of UK, Poland and Ukraine Boris Johnson, Witold Waszczykowski and Pavlo Klimkin

Great Britain–Poland. Support for Ukraine was confirmed also during the joint visit to Ukraine on 1 March, 2017 of the Foreign Ministers of the UK and Poland Boris Johnson and Witold Waszczykowski. In particular, in this regard, the Ministers expressed their countries' readiness to join the “Normandy” format of negotiations on the settlement of the conflict in the Donbas.

France. The European Community takes consistent steps to counteract Russia's growing influence in Europe. Thus, on 28 February 2017, Members of the European Parliament voted in favor of the removal of parliamentary immunity from the leader of the French “National Front”, the presidential candidate of France M. Le Pen. The reason for this was M. Le Pen's posting on the Internet photos of the Islamic extremists' violence.

Besides, law enforcement agencies of France continue to investigate into the illegal activity of another pro-Russian candidate for the post of head of the French state — F. Fillon. In particular, on 3 March 2017, the French Police searched his home.

 

 

IV. Other Important Trends and Developments that Will Have an Impact on Ukraine's National Interests

Russia. Complication of the socio-economic situation in Russia leads to further spread of protest activity in the country. Thus, despite the Putin regime's increased repressions against the opposition, on 27 February 2017, in the center of Moscow there was a mass meeting dedicated to the memory of an opposition politician Boris Nemtsov (who was killed two years ago).

In turn, the Association of Russian carriers, Interregional Trade Union of professional drivers and the association “Dalnoboyshchik” (“Trucker”) announced their plans for nationwide protests on 27 March, 2017. The campaign is being prepared in coordination with the movement of the farmers, who at the same time, are going to hold a “Tractor March” to Moscow.

The demands of the participants of the protest movement are not only economic, but also political — resignation of Russia's government. Besides, they will also express distrust of the Russian President, as the guarantor of the Russian Constitution. In case of refusal of the Russian authorities to fulfill the demands of the protesters, the actions will be transferred into the format of unlimited strikes.

Moldova. Against the background of the sharp political confrontation in Moldova, its new President I. Dodon is continuing efforts to strengthen his authority. On 1 March 2017, I. Dodon proposed at the Moldovan parliament the draft law on amendments to the Constitution, providing for granting him the right to dissolve the highest legislative body in “special cases”. In particular, such cases would include “parliament's refusal to comply with the will of the people to hold advisory referendums”. The aim of such I. Dodon's actions is to create prerequisites for early parliamentary elections with the prospect of the victory of pro-Russian forces.

 

V. Major Trends in the Development of the Situation around Ukraine in the Future

5.1. Key Events and Trends that Will Be Most Important for Ukraine

Positions and actions of the US Congress, as well as key officials in the administration of D. Trump actually do not allow the possibility of pro-Russian changes in Washington's policy, at least in the nearest future. Given this, we should expect further strengthening of the disagreements between the USA and Russia on the Ukrainian issue. Similar differences will remain also in the relations between the EU/NATO and the Russian Federation.

Thus, Western countries and international organizations will continue to support our state and to put pressure on Russia. In this regard, the determining factor will be the USA and EU's decisions (in March 2017) on the maintenance of sanctions against Russia imposed for the annexation of the Crimea. Besides, important will be D. Trump's administration's reaction to the US Congress' decisions (after their adoption) on imposing new sanctions against the Kremlin for its interference with the presidential elections in the United States.

In response, the Putin regime will increase pressure on Ukraine and our Western partners by provoking new tensions in the Donbas and demonstrating the possibility of recognition of the “DPR” and “LPR”. In particular, under the guise of “Ukraine's transport blockade of the breakaway republics”, they can accelerate the process of reorienting their economies to Russia. At this, Moscow will never allow the expansion of the “Normandy format” at the expense of countries that do not support its position, and will block the OSCE's possible decision to send a monitoring mission to the Crimea (consideration of this issue in the OSCE is planned for the end of March this year).

At the same time, continuing the confrontation with the West would make Russia face the need to increase financial expenses, first of all, for military needs and the implementation of its plans for the “DPR”/“LPR”. This will be an additional factor of the burden on the state budget of the Russian Federation, which will lead to further deterioration of the socio-economic situation in Russia. In turn, this will be a powerful catalyst for increasing protest activity in the country. In this situation, Putin's regime with a high probability will resort to strengthening the toughness of repressions against the opposition.

Such actions of Moscow can be used by the West as a basis for the deployment of a new large-scale campaign of pressure on the Russian leadership by accusing Russian authorities of human rights violations. This will create an additional justification for the continuation of sanctions against Russia in June–July this year.

 

5.2. Prospects for the Development of Events in the Conflict Zones in Ukraine

Worsening of the armed conflict in the Donbas since the beginning of February this year, in fact shows Moscow's decisive refusal to implement the Minsk Agreements. Due to this, there will be a high level of tension in the conflict zone with periodic intensification of hostilities in certain areas.

First of all, in this regard, the Russian-terrorist forces will try to recapture the lost grounds near Debaltsevo (Svitlodarsk Arc), Avdiivka (Donetsk) and Dokuchaevsk (North-East of Mariupol). At the same time, even the restoration of its positions on the front line will not stop Russia from further “creeping” moving deeper into the territory of Ukraine. In this context, rather revealing and cynical is Russia's using the tactics of forcing the ATO forces to surrender the key strongholds by massive shelling of them.

A special aim of Moscow's provoking tensions in the Donbas can also be a distraction of the Russian population's attention from Russia's economic problems and switching of protest moods in society to the confrontation with Ukraine.

 

5.3. Other Important Events that Will Have an Impact on Ukraine's Interests and Security

In June 2017, the UK Ministry of Foreign Affairs is going to hold an international conference to discuss the situation in Ukraine and around it. The conference will prepare recommendations for further forms of the USA, NATO and the EU's assistance to Ukraine, as well as proposals on how to resolve the conflict in Donbas. Depending on the situation, these recommendations may include both weakening and strengthening of international sanctions against Russia.

 

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