September 12, 2018

The Middle East and North Africa. Analytical Review 08/2018

Oleksiy Volovych

The Military-Political and Economic Situation in August 2018

 

In August 2018, the military-political situation in the Middle East was tense. Important events and processes had been taking place simultaneously in many countries of the region, but we decided in this review to concentrate mainly on events in Syria, in particular, on the preparation for the Syrian troops' forthcoming operation to liberate the northwestern province of Idlib, with which four countries have to do in one way or another: the TR, IRI, RF and USA. Syria and Iran clearly intend to conduct it, the United States and Turkey are against it, trying to prevent the strengthening of the positions of Bashar al-Assad and Russia in case of Damascus and Moscow's success. The leadership of the Russian Federation has doubts and has for some weeks kept Damascus and Tehran from carrying out the operation, not wanting to “quarrel” with Ankara and Washington, or rather, fearing a tough counteraction from them. In any case, the battle for Idlib will inevitably be a turning point for the Syrian conflict and all the forces involved in its settlement or in its further fuelling. In turn, the nature of the settlement of the Syrian conflict in the postwar period will largely determine the nature of military-political and economic changes throughout the Middle East.

The article is available in Ukrainian