July 26, 2013

The Prospect of Resumption of Economic Development of the USA and Its Consequences

TIn its previous articles “Borysfen Intel” has already touched upon the theme of the current state and prospects for the economic development of leading countries of the world, including the European Union, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) group, as well as the oil and gas monarchies of the Middle East (United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar).

But not less interesting is the current state of the economy of the United States of America, as of the most developed nation with close ties to other leading countries and  which actually determines the direction of  development of the world economy.

The main reasons for the global financial and economic crisis in 2008 was the problem of debts in the USA, because of which, actually, took place the so-called “domino effect”
The main reasons for the global financial and economic crisis in 2008 was the problem of debts in the USA, because of which, actually, took place the so-called “domino effect”
http://bin.ua/

Thus, most of estimates confirm that one of the main reasons for the global financial and economic crisis in 2008 was the problem of debts in the USA, because of which, actually, took place the so-called “domino effect” that affected the entire global financial and economic system. This caused a number of military and political consequences of a global nature; in particular, it has changed the balance of power in the world, as well as increased instability at the global and regional levels.

First of all, the USA's world leadership has got narrower, and the EU, reputed to have been the leading international organization, has lost some positions. As a result, positions of the countries of the BRICS, who confirmed their positive dynamics of development, got stronger. Negative effects of the global financial and economic crisis served as a catalyst for the “Arab Spring” in North Africa and the Middle East, the territory of which immediately sank into social unrest and armed conflicts.

But even in such circumstances, the U.S. economy remains the factor that largely forms financial, economic and military-political situation in the world. Besides, since the beginning of this year, it (the economy - auth.) has been tending to gradual strengthening.

The dynamics of growth of the U.S. GDP
The dynamics of growth of the U.S. GDP
http://www.vestifinance.ru/

Thus, during the first half of 2013, thanks to increased levels of both domestic consumption in the country, as well as exports and investments in residential and industrial sectors, the U.S. GDP grew by about 2.5%. Besides, there has been reduced the deficit in trade. In particular, in January-May this year, the U.S. trade deficit amounted to 209 billion U.S. dollars, while over the same period of 2012 it equaled 236 billion U.S. dollars. The total U.S. exports rose to 934 billion U.S. dollars and imports — up to 1.143 trillion U.S. dollars. Major economic trading partners of the USA remain China and the EU.

In May of this year, resumed the norm of Law on establishing a limit of U.S. state debt (has been suspended by the U.S. Congress in January of this year) at about 16.7 trillion US dollars. According to U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jacob Lew, problems with debt servicing are not expected, at least by the beginning of September 2013. By that time, lawmakers will try to have set a new limit of state debt in order to avoid technical default of the country.

Thanks to all this, as well as to the improved indexes of bank capital and asset qualities, more acceptable have become lending terms for individuals and businesses. Besides, the Federal Reserve continues a softer monetary policy by buying government bonds and mortgage-backed securities for a total amount of at least 85 billion US dollars every month, as well as by keeping the near-zero interest rate on federal funds, which helps to increase consumer costs and activates business activities in the country.

Personnel changes in the government of the United States, where to key positions will be assigned highly skilled professionals, working for the sake of achieving qualitative changes in the country, can also positively influence the development of the US economy.

The United States Secretary of Energy has become E. Moniz
The United States Secretary of Energy has become E. Moniz
http://www.atomic-energy.ru/

For example, the United States Secretary of Energy has become E. Moniz — a well-known physicist who has the necessary experience in the U.S. Government in various management positions in the field of science and modern technology, as well as in the energy sector (including as Director for Science in the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Executive Office of President, the Deputy Minister of Energy of the United States, a member of the Council for Science and Technology under the President of the United States).

E. Moniz speaks for further expansion of production of shale hydrocarbons and an increase of exports of liquefied gas, which will increase the energy independence of the country, will raise the level of competitiveness of the U.S. economy, in particular, will increase the proposal of volumes of gas at world and European markets.

Trade Representative of the United States has been appointed M. Froman
Trade Representative of the United States has been appointed M. Froman
http://www.nytimes.com/

Trade Representative of the United States has been appointed M. Froman — one of the most experienced financial professionals of the United States, including through public and private sector (he served as Assistant to the President and Deputy Adviser for International Economic Affairs, served as facilitator of the Presidential Administration policy in the sector of international trade, investment and energy). His main efforts M. Froman focuses on solving major economic problems, first of all, on the resumption of high rates of growth of the U.S. economy.

To the position of U.S. Secretary of Commerce has been appointed P. Pritzker
To the position of U.S. Secretary of Commerce has been appointed P. Pritzker
http://www.peoples.ru/

To the position of U.S. Secretary of Commerce has been appointed P. Pritzker — one of the wealthiest women of the United States of America (the total capital of 1.9 billion US dollars), who specializes in investments in real estate and hotel business (she owns the international hotel chain “Hyatt”). During the first and second Presidential campaign of Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, P. Pritzker was the financial director of Obama's presidential campaign. The main thing in her work on the post of the Minister of Commerce is implementation of the President's program of development of trade and strengthening the middle class of the country.

The dynamics of growth of the GDP at purchasing power parity, per capita
The dynamics of growth of the GDP at purchasing power parity, per capita
http://woc-org.com/

Positive for the economic development of the USA is the process of negotiations on a Free Trade Area between the United States and the European Union. The first round of negotiations took place on the 8th of July this year in Washington under the auspices of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. A corresponding agreement on the matter will be signed in 1.5-2 years. According to experts, the elimination of import tariffs between the United States and the European Union as well as the unification of the rules of exports and imports of basic goods and services (cars, drugs, medical equipment, agricultural products, transportation, etc.) will contribute to the growth of the USA's GDP to 0.4% and of the GDP of the EU — by 0.5%. This will make about 116 billion US dollars in one year. Besides, it will allow to create about 2 million jobs.

Administration of the United States of America has also intensified negotiations on making an agreement on Pacific Partnership with countries in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR), including the USA, Japan, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, Canada and Mexico. This agreement will facilitate the creation of a Free Trade Area in the Asia-Pacific Region by reducing trade barriers, as well as harmonization of legislation of trade member-states.

A meeting of the President of the United States of America Barack Obama with the President of China, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping
A meeting of the President of the United States of America Barack Obama with the President of China, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping
http://ru.gbtimes.com/

An important achievement of the United States is also establishing a new level of strategic partnership with China. This became possible after a meeting of the President of the United States of America Barack Obama with the President of China, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping in Washington in early June of this year. In particular, it is envisaged to improve the coordination of macroeconomic policies of the United States and China, which will positively influence the development of national economies of both countries and will contribute to the continued and balanced economic growth in Asia-Pacific Region and in the world at large.

The continuation of this process became the fifth round of talks between the USA and China within the framework of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue between the two countries that was held in China on the 10th-11th of July, 2013. The parties agreed to start negotiations on signing an agreement on mutual investments in all spheres of the economic sector.

The fifth round of talks between the USA and China within the framework of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue between the two countries
The fifth round of talks between the USA and China within the framework of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue between the two countries
http://www.cntv.ru/

In general, all this creates favorable conditions for overcoming the tendency of weakening of the USA as the leading center of power in the world. For example, the economic strengthening gives the United States an opportunity to restore its military and political positions. This is evidenced by the increased activity of the U.S. policy in the Asia-Pacific Region, as well as the intensification of activities of operational and combat trainings of the U.S. Armed Forces, which kept reducing before, due to the decrease in military spending. In particular, the allocation of additional almost 300 million US dollars to the U.S. Defense Department has fully restored intensity of flights of the U.S. Military Aviation.

The  summary table on the dynamics of regional GDP
The  summary table on the dynamics of regional GDP
 http://eurodollar.com.ua/

Improving of the state of affairs in the American economy has also positively influenced the economic development of partners of the USA, and expands the opportunities for trade and economic cooperation. Since the beginning of this year gradual improvement in the economy of the European Union — the main partner of the United States— also has been noticed. And this helps resolve the internal problems of the EU, as well as the successful implementation of the main programs of the European Union, including “Eastern Partnership” in which Ukraine participates. Therefore, the prospect of Western choice of Ukraine and its European integration can be considered positive.

As for the statement of the Russian side about the “crisis of the West” and “greater efficiency of Eurasian integration structures with the Russian Federation at its head”, it can be viewed as blatant bias that is not supported by a single positive step towards Ukraine, except illusive promises.