October 7, 2013

What Can the European Union «Win» by Losing Ukraine?

Actively interfering with the process of European integration of countries participating in the “Eastern Partnership” Program of the EU, Russia for its own benefit is trying to influence the public opinion. For example, it tries to persuade the world community that “the West has increased doubts about advisability of further support of Ukraine on its way to the European Union.” No wonder that in Western media publications appeare on the possible postponement of the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU (scheduled for November during the EU summit in Vilnius). They even give “reasons” — the former Prime - Minister Yulia Tymoshenko still being a prisoner, and Ukraine's inability to fulfill the remaining conditions of the EU, in particular, to adopt necessary Law acts in time.

In this case, it is appropriate to consider possible consequences for the EU if it delays the conclusion of the above-mentioned Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, as an essential component of the process of European integration of the Ukrainian state. Thus, postponing of its signing will create real conditions under which Russia will implement its strategic goal to restore control over Ukraine. This will automatically lead to significant changes in the political environment and the balance of power in Europe and Eurasia.

For example, for itself Europe will lose Ukraine as a powerful partner in political, economic and security spheres, but Moscow, «having got» Ukraine, will have in its hands the most important tool to build a full-fledged Eurasian Union. And what will be the consequences of this?

  • Firstly, Russia will significantly enhance its economic potential due to subordination to Russian business of Ukrainian economy with its strong metallurgy, fuel and energy complexes, modern machinery and high-tech industries (including space, aircraft- and ship- building industry, electronics and nanotechnologies) and highly productive agriculture.
  • Secondly, the Russian Federation will radically improve its geopolitical position in the Central and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region, having restored its control over the territory of Ukraine, and this will allow it to reach the borders of the former Russian Empire and the Soviet Union.
  • Thirdly, Russia will be able to integrate Ukraine into structures of CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization of Russia and its allies in the CIS), and thus will complete the process of building the Russian military system in the European direction (South-Western and Southern sectors).
  • Fourthly, the RF, due to demographic potential of Ukraine (over 46 million people) will be able to solve its demographic problems that have got significantly complicated due to changes in the demographic balance in favor of non-Russian (non-Slavic) population.
  • Fifthly, all these achievements will greatly enhance the credibility of the Russian Federation as the winner of the U.S. and NATO in the competition for influence in the former Soviet Union's space.

All this taken together, will enhance abilities of the Russian Federation for further implementation of its geopolitical plans to resume its positions now in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, which not long ago were part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. At this, Russia will use the same active means that it today applies to Ukraine and other CIS countries, as well as to Poland and Lithuania.

Russia will activate trade wars against the CEE and Baltic countries
Russia will activate trade wars against the CEE and Baltic countries

In particular, Russia will activate trade wars against the CEE and Baltic countries, will create energy problems for them, and will strongly support pro-Russian political organizations in their territory. At the same time, in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia there may be provoked conflicts between Russian and local population, which may escalate into clashes and unrest.

Furthermore, with direct access to the borders of CEE, Russia will receive additional opportunities for political pressure on its neighbors using elements of military force. Thus, the Russian military trainings “West- 2013” will inevitably be followed by similar military trainings in the South-West direction, in which military actions against Slovakia, Hungary and Romania will be trained.

Besides, Russia, seeking to strengthen its positions in the “old Europe”, will try to cause a split between EU member states in political, economic and security issues.

Extremely negative consequences for the whole European Union and individual member countries will not take long to come.

First of all, the European Union will largely relinquish its positions in Central and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region and will forever lose the opportunity to expand to the East.

On the Eastern border of the EU there will be renewed Russian state with totalitarian regime and aggressive foreign policy, ready to resort to any measures (including the armed force and nuclear weapons) in order to achieve its foreign policy goals.

The EU's dependence on Russia's in economic and energy spheres will grow significantly, because Russia will be controlling transport and energy routes from the East towards Europe. And this will mean increasing political dependence of EU on Russia.

Eastern EU members will lose the buffer with Russia and will be under direct pressure from Russia, which will significantly increase the level of threats to their safety in the political, economic and military spheres.

The European Union's losing to Russia at the territories of the former Soviet Union, will significantly worsen its image and credibility as of an influential and effective international organization. This is not the best way affect both the unity of the EU, and the European Union's relations with other partner countries.

In 2008, the preconditions for such developments were created by Europe when at the Chicago Summit of NATO, it refused to sign the Action Plan for Ukraine's membership in NATO.

With postponing of the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU to a later time, this process can be finished completely. And if the European Union, under the pressure from the Russian Federation dares to do so, we can assume that the EU will have completely giving up its positions.