Borysfen Intel

Winners and the Defeated. Part 2

November 17, 2014
<p>Winners and the Defeated. Part 2</p>

Scenarios of Disintegration.

In its previous publications, “Borysfen” has already touched upon the subject of possible consequences of the Russian military aggression against Ukraine both, for our state, and directly for the Russian Federation itself. There is a need to turn again to the subject, especially as the current situation really has a deeper and more serious character, especially in relation to Russia.

Thus, the analysis of the events around the Russian Federation allows to draw quite a convincing conclusion that the West has started to implement a clear scenario of Russia's disintegration as it once was done about the Soviet Union. Moreover, by using similar methods of the late 1970s — early1990s. In particular, with regard to the USSR, and concerning Russia, they are identical:

Firstly — like once the Soviet, now Russian economy depends on exports of oil and gas and other natural resources; both countries are equally untenable in the development of high technologies (except for certain industries) and in self-securing their own food needs;

Ethnic composition of the USSR at the 1989 census
Ethnic composition of the USSR at the 1989 census (nations of over 1 million people)

Secondly — both, the former Soviet Union and the current Russian Federation are of multinational character, as well as the federal form of the state represented by union republics, national-territorial autonomies, subjects of the Russian Federation and the like, with their governments, parliaments and other organs of local (regional) power. All this contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union and contributes to the disintegration of Russia today, especially in the situation of aggravation of its social and economic problems;

Thirdly — in the Soviet Union, and today in Russia (as the “heiress” of the USSR), were and are observed a general degradation of the ruling elite in the form of large-scale corruption of the leadership (including under the “roof” of the security services), criminalization of the economy and transition of a greater part of it into the “shadow”, spread of “cronyism”, “nepotism”, vicegerency and other negative phenomena. All this was covered by imposing on the country's population of the communist ideology (in the case of the Soviet Union) or of national-chauvinist ideology (as the current government of the Russian Federation does).

Fourthly — Russia's policy in any ruling regime (from the Russian Empire — to the Soviet Union or the Russian Federation) has an aggressive nature, and it is not able to foresee possible consequences of its actions, both in the short and in the medium or long term. At this, as a rule, can be observed overestimation of Russia's forces and underestimation of the forces of the enemy (as a consequence of the policy of “permissiveness” and imperial ideology);

and the last — the leadership of the USSR, and later of the Russian Federation relies too much on the state force structures (including the Armed Forces and Security Services) in solving internal problems. Using military force, the conflicts on the territory of the country could be “frozen” only partially, but in reality, they were not eliminated. Besides, in case of a variety of large-scale cataclysms in Russia its Armed Forces has been considerably weakened (as it happened in the Russian Empire in 1917 and in the Soviet Union in 1941 or 1991).

Having taken into consideration these aspects, the West made the scenario of the USSR's collapse and its actual removal from the international arena as a leading world-class state — geopolitical rival of the USA and Europe.

Thus, at the first stage, during the 1970s — early 1980s, on the Soviet Union was imposed a large-scale arms race in the most difficult sectors of its economy (first of all in shipbuilding and space), which required excessive financial costs and was draining the state budget of the country. In particular, at that time the USSR's military spending was at least 40 % of the country's GDP, which is unacceptable for any state. In turn, the USA was only simulating the implementation of a number of large-scale military programs (including the well-known “Strategic Defense Initiative” or so-called “Star Wars”), and it gave it the opportunity to maintain its military spending at no more than 4-5 %.

The Soviet Union bogged down in protracted fighting in Afghanistan
The Soviet Union bogged down in protracted fighting in Afghanistan. From 1979 to 1989, about one hundred and fifty thousand Ukrainians had passed through the crucible of the “Afghan war”.  About 290 Ukrainians did not return from Afghanistan, 62 people are still missing or captured. More than 8,000 Ukrainians wereinjured, and 4,687 of them returned to the home disabled
US President Ronald Reagan proclaimed the “Strategic Defense Initiative” (SDI)
US President Ronald Reagan proclaimed the “Strategic Defense Initiative” (SDI) with elements of space basing. In the media, this project was called plan of “Star Wars”

At the second stage, starting in 1979, the Soviet Union had bogged down in protracted fighting in Afghanistan, which lasted about 10 years and had created for the USSR a number of new challenges, both internal and external. These were as follows: additional military spending (which was too large for the USSR) on the completely senseless war in Afghanistan; undermining of the international image of the Soviet Union (as the country-aggressor, the perpetrator of mass civilian casualties); increasing of the Muslim world's negative attitudes towards Russia (shuravi); heavy losses among Soviet soldiers (according to official data — more than 15 thousand were killed) that had a large negative resonance in the Soviet society; creating a stable channel of weapon and drug smuggling to the USSR.

Besides, was created the human resource base for both, future criminal gangs of the Soviet Union and for a variety of illegal armed groups, which later were used for provocation and unleashing armed conflicts on the territory of the USSR.

At the third stage (roughly from the late 1970s), with the help of agents of Western influence, was done great work to accelerate the process of criminalization and corruption of the ruling circles of the USSR, including the leadership of the ruling (at that time) Communist Party and the Union Republics of the Soviet Union, as well as directors of the national economy and security structures' commandment, including Armed Forces, Militia (Police) and KGB. This way the system of state authority of the USSR was undermined, and was created a powerful incentive for local party-economic groups in the issue of getting free from dependence of Moscow. At the same time, the Kremlin's attempts (during ruling of Yuri Andropov and “early” M. Gorbachev) to strengthen the struggle against corruption had failed.

At the fourth stage, in the middle of the 1980s, the USA and Saudi Arabia organized the sharp drop in oil prices, which finally destroyed the Soviet economy and forced the USSR to apply for Western loans. In its turn, the West put forward a condition: to democratize the Soviet Union and to eliminate the communist regime, which launched the process of disintegration of the USSR as a totalitarian state — in fact the last world empire of classical type. Besides, the USSR's falling was accompanied by a number of armed conflicts (both, provoked by Moscow to preserve its influence in the union republics, and those caused by criminal, ethnic and religious problems). This was an additional catalyst of the internal crisis of the USSR.

Currently, there are signs of similar steps of the USA and its allies against Russia with a view to its elimination as a threat to the Western world. The USA decided on this, after the so-called “Munich” V. Putin's speech at the International Conference on Global Security in 2007. There he for the first time clearly proclaimed Moscow's policy of confrontation with the West, and confirmed this in practice within the framework of the military aggression against Georgia in 2008, and Russia's support to totalitarian regimes in Egypt, Libya and Syria.

As part of the USA's adoption of the specific strategy to achieve its goal in the Russian direction, was taken into consideration the current situation in and around Russia. In particular, the obviously lower, compared with the former USSR, potential of the Russian Federation (in the economic, military and demographic spheres); Russia's increasing dependence on oil and gas exports, Western loans, investments and technologies; higher than in the Soviet Union, level of venality and corruption of the Russian ruling elite, (the actual transition of Russia to a scheme of criminal-oligarchic political system, which had been also imposed on Ukraine when Yanukovych's clan was in power).

The deployment of vanward US military bases in Romania and Bulgaria
The deployment of vanward US military bases in Romania and Bulgaria, the task of which is strengthening of the American military presence in Central and Eastern Europe

Thanks to the measures taken by the United States, has been actually implemented at the present time the first phase of measures regarding the Russian Federation, namely — it has been lured into a military confrontation with the West. In this regard, the USA's key step has become its withdrawal from the 1974 Agreement on Missile Defense, as well as the announcement of plans to deploy elements of the Missile Defense system of the USA/NATO in Europe. Besides, a certain role has been played by the deployment of vanward US military bases in Romania and Bulgaria, the formal task of which is the logistics of US and NATO's operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, but in reality – strengthening of the American military presence in Central and Eastern Europe.

All this has forced Moscow to embark on an ambitious program of technical re-equipment of the Russian Armed Forces (with estimates of hundreds of billions of US dollars), deployment of new units in the western parts of Russia, enhancement of activities of operational and combat training of the Russian Army and Navy, as well as demonstration of force to the United States and NATO. These steps require a substantial increase in military spending from the state budget of the Russian Federation (for 2015 it is planned at the level of 3.28 trillion rubles, or 4.2 % of the GDP).

At the same time, is being implemented the second stage of the USA and EU's plans regarding Russia, luring it into armed conflicts at former Soviet territories. Thus, at some point, the USA, NATO and the EU almost did not react to the Russian military aggression against Georgia in August 2008, and Moscow considered it as “weakness” of western countries and international organizations, and then actually ventured on such acts of war, which have led to disaster, with Russia's participation in Ukraine.

First of all, this refers to the unexpected for Russia consequence of the USA, EU and their partners' sanctions. For example, a large outflow of foreign and domestic investments (as estimated by heads of relevant committees of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, they make up to about one trillion US dollars). And the ban on the access to Western loans and technologies (first of all in the energy sector) complicates the economic situation in the Russian Federation, and at the same time it exacerbates its social and political problems.

Groupings in Putin’s team
Groupings in Putin’s team

Against this background, practically without the USA and EU's participation (or at their tacit consent) has been implemented the third stage of the elimination of Russia, comprising the total corruption of the Russian government, together with its political, business and military circles. All this, as well as the ruling elite of the Russian Federation's placing its assets (including the illegally obtained) in Western countries, give the USA and the EU powerful leverage of influence on Russia's leadership, including within the framework of the promotion of their interests. This is evidenced by the selective sanctions of the USA and the European Union against Putin's environment that have split it. To date, the trusted circle of President of the Russian Federation consists exclusively of persons closely associated with the criminal world, and those who had the leading role in the implementation of the adventures of Putin's regime (in particular, the Minister of Defense V. Shoygu and Vice Prime Minister Dmitriy Rogozin).

In recent years, conditions have been created for the implementation of the fourth stage of the USA's measures against Russia — namely, the decline in world prices of energy carriers. The USA has used new technologies in production of shale hydrocarbons, which has resulted in the surplus supply of oil and gas on the world market. Besides, after Russia's outright military invasion into Ukraine in late August of this year, the United States, having coordinated its actions with Saudi Arabia, began against the Russian Federation the so-called “dumping” war which has caused the persistent downward trend in oil prices and, therefore, significant (and actually irrecoverable) Russia's financial losses.

In other words, has been created the situation where the Russian economy will collapse in the nearest future. It will certainly provoke growth of centrifugal tendencies in Russian regions, as it happened in the mid-1990s. The basis for such development of events has been formed by anti-Russian sentiments in Muslim regions of Russia (primarily in the North Caucasus, the Volga region, and, strange as it might seem, in Siberia), as well as by initiatives of some Russian political forces about the creation of the so-called Kaliningrad, Krasnodar, Ural, Siberian and other people's republics.

Russia's falling apart – how it is possible
Russia's falling apart – how it is possible

According to Russian experts, including close to the Russian government ones (in particular, the former adviser to Putin — D. Illarionov), all this can lead to Russia's falling apart and neighboring countries' establishing control over adjacent Russian territories. Thus, the Russian experts and analysts predict a return of Kaliningrad to Germany, Karelia to Finland, western districts of Pskov region to Lithuania and Eastern Siberia and the Far East to China. Characteristically, such prospects are actively being discussed in the media in China, which openly demonstrates its claims to Russian territories.

Thus, in response to the Russian military trainings “East-2014” in September, to counter China's military plans against the Russian Federation, China took measures of operational and combat training, next larger than the Russian side could afford.

Obviously, with the collapse of Russia, Ukraine will be able to resume control over its territories, including the Crimea, the Donbas, Belgorod and Taganrog regions, and western districts of Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh regions. Likewise will also be solved Trans-Dniester, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts.

Unfortunately, Ukraine remains at the crossroads of the struggle between the West and Russia, and it is a hostage of their interests. However, no matter how painful it is, Ukraine must cope. The more Russia gets involved in the armed conflict with us, the sooner will come the end of the Russian empire in its last manifestation under Putin's leadership.

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