The World in 2015: Forecast and Prospects.
Predicting the development of the global geopolitical situation in 2015, it is necessary to go back, first of all, to our forecast for 2014 (http://bintel.com.ua/en/article/prognoz-i-perspektivy-2014/; http://bintel.com.ua/en/article/chto-god-grjadushhij-nam-gotovit2). We can say that Bintel's experts were accurate enough in their foreseeing major trends of geopolitical development of the current situation in the world. When analyzing the situation around Ukraine, accents were placed correctly and necessary conclusions were drawn. But what we could not assume – it's the main event of the past year – Russia's aggression against Ukraine and annexation of the Crimea. True, in regard to Russia's military actions in the Ukrainian lands, then we did have some doubts about their impossibility. And this, of course, can be called a major miscalculation in the forecast...
Authoritative experts, organizations and publications are now trying to answer the main question - what will be the world in 2015? At this, they all doubt: to believe or not to believe, will the forecast come true or will it not? But then, a year ago, no one could have predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine and the world would return to the “cold war”, that an organization called ISIS would turn into an “Islamic State” and would become a strategic threat not only in the Middle East, but also in the world, that the United States and Cuba would restore diplomatic relations, that the world price of oil would collapse, and so on.. Most did not even ask such questions. Obviously, it will be so in 2015 - much of what happens, none of us at the moment can even imagine.
Although there are some questions to which one cannot wait to get an answer today. For example, how long will the Russian aggression in the Donbas last and how far are the Russians ready to move forward? Will the conflict be “frozen” or will some other part of our territory be occupied? How will the international community respond to the increasing activity of the “IS”, and what will be the price of oil? Will the development of the US economy continue and how much will slow down China's economic growth? And will the Ebola virus be defeated?
Without an objective assessment and careful analysis of the main geopolitical, military-political and economic processes in the world in 2014 it is impossible to predict the dynamics of their development in the nearest and medium term and, consequently, to project them on 2015 and beyond.
| Taking into consideration the above said, it can be assumed that the main trend of development of the geopolitical situation in the world in 2015 will remain opposition for global and regional spheres of influence of the two major world powers - the United States and China. | |
| The main geopolitical event of the year will be aggravation of the conflict between Russia and the West, which could permanently plunge the world into an era of “cold war”. | |
| The main military-political events, unfortunately, will remain the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and terrorist activities of the “Islamic State” in the Middle East. | |
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The main economic events will be not just a weak growth, but collapse of the Russian economy, and world oil prices.
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| The main non-political event of the year will be curbing the spread of the Ebola virus. |
American leaders in 2015 will focus primarily on strengthening the role of the USA as the leading center of power in the world. To this end, the United States will even more actively start solving its economic and security issues, and will increase its influence in key regions of the world - in the Asia-Pacific Region, Europe and the Middle East.
Recovery of the US economy, which began in 2014, will continue and, as a consequence, the budget deficit will be reduced, inflation and unemployment will decrease, which will serve as the basis for the positive dynamics of development in the current year (to 2.8 % of GDP). At this, 2015 is the last (before the elections in 2016) full year of President Barack Obama, who will focus on carrying out the previously announced major reforms, especially in health care. And if on domestic economic reforms, the Republican majority of the US Congress will try to block many decisions, in the matter of foreign policy, support for Ukraine and imposition of additional sanctions against Russia are expected to increase.
In relations with the European Union, the most important task for the United States will be signing of an agreement on a free trade area, a political dialogue on coordination of sanctions against Russia. Special attention will be paid to relations with China. After a series of successful meetings between the two leaders in the past year, 2015 promises some reduction of diplomatic activity. However, this does not remove from the agenda a number of joint concern and contentious issues, on solution of which depend leadership positions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Priority directions in the United States' foreign activities will also remain stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan and Iraq, putting pressure on the regime of B. al-Assad in Syria, the fight against the terrorist organization “Islamic State”.
The main tool in the implementation of foreign policy interests of the United States will remain the North Atlantic Alliance. Within the framework of NATO will continue events to establish Ultra Rapid Reaction Force, building up capacity of the Alliance group in Poland, Romania and the Baltic countries, deployment of the USA/NATO Missile Defense system in Central and Eastern Europe.
As for the People's Republic of China, it will adhere to the strategy of building China as a new center of power at the global level. To do this, it will continue to strengthen its positions, especially in the Asia-Pacific Region, defend and promote its economic interests in other parts of the world. In the domestic economic policy the efforts of the PRC will focus on the country's transition from the old economic model of export promotion and capital construction projects in the country to the new principles of development of the internal market and high-tech industries. The Government will continue to take measures to curb the fall of the high economic growth rates (up to 7.0 % of GDP).
Strengthening regional confrontation between China and the United States, territorial conflicts because of the existing disputed island areas between China and neighboring countries may lead to the Asia-Pacific Region's becoming a new source of tension of regional and global levels. Further deepening of territorial disputes between the key players will take place against the backdrop of escalating arms race. Russia's annexation of the Crimea and aggression in the east of Ukraine are now viewed by most countries in Southeast Asia, especially by Vietnam and the Philippines, as a factor provoking building up of China's “bellicose” rhetoric in relations with these countries within the framework of further solving the issues of disputed territories in the South China Sea. All this, together with the long-term China-Japan conflict over the Spratly and Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and the permanent instability on the Korean peninsula due to the DPRK's aggressive policy, determines some increase in risk when the South-East and East Asia will turn into a zone of a military conflict, and the forms of China-USA confrontation in the Asia-Pacific Region get radicalized.
The European Union, having failed to cope with its long-term economic, political and social issues, will remain a central element of the global economic, trade, scientific and cultural system. At this we will see an increase in unemployment in Spain, Greece and other countries of Southern Europe, which will cause growth of Eurosceptic moods. Many politicians doubt, whether the price for EU membership is not too high. Leading Parties of Greece and Great Britain are seriously discussing the issue of their countries' withdrawal from the Euro zone, which could trigger a chain reaction and return Europe to the era of fragmentation.
Actually all over Europe has been observed an upsurge of public anger and political instability. Party mosaic becomes more varied, after the elections in 2014 many parties have lost not only their attraction, but also legitimacy. This year heralds a significant change in the political life of “problem” countries - Greece, Portugal and Spain, where in 2015 will be held parliamentary elections (held in Greece January 25). To date, their favorites are opposition parties (especially in Spain), which carries certain risks to economic stability and integrity of the EU. And while in Portugal and Spain the result of the elections (scheduled for autumn 2015) is so far being forecasted, the victory in Greece of the main opposition party SYRIZA (Coalition of the Radical Left) has already been called the “earthquake in European politics”.
Upcoming May parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom are rightly considered to be one of the determinants in Europe in 2015. The increasing popularity of the Independence Party (UKIP) headed by N. Farage (according to different estimates can get up to 30 %), advocating for UK leaving the EU, subordinates the United Kingdom's fate in the European Union.
Popularity of the National Front (FN) in France keeps growing. At the same time, popularity of opposition parties in Germany is limited by A. Merkel's opportunities to take measures for deepening of European integration and stabilization of the Euro-zone. Under these circumstances, for the EU the best option would be a close alliance and coordinated actions of Germany, France and the United Kingdom (which seems unlikely). Germany insists on introduction of austerity; against the background of rising unemployment and weak economic growth, the critically low rating of the President of France has risen only due to the January terrorist attacks in Paris; and London cannot solve completely the problems of its membership in the EU.
In European countries, on the basis of the number of European citizens who are fighting in Iraq and Syria, and the number of Muslim communities in these countries, one can state the increase in potential threats of Islamist militants' terrorist attacks.
The economic situation in Europe this year is also extremely unstable, especially in the Euro-zone, with its exceptionally slow growth (up to 1.3 % of GDP), and the economies of some European countries are threatened by recession. Other governments have to address the issues of pension reforms, balance of their budgets, and a number of other problems to maximize mitigation of consequences of the ongoing crisis.
In 2014, the policy of the Russian Federation and its measures to redraw European borders established since the end of World War II, have made a serious threat to global security. The annexation of the Crimea and actually aggression against Ukraine and the conflict with the West over Ukraine that followed has clearly outlined an aggressive anti-Western course of the Russian foreign policy.
Western sanctions, falling oil prices, economic stagnation and the collapse of the ruble - all these have economically and financially weakened Russia, but have not “bring to knees” yet. The RF is trying to quickly refocus its foreign economic ties to China, India, Turkey, Asia-Pacific and Latin America. In 2015, the Russian Federation will also be very active in Africa, it will be looking for new opportunities for itself in Iran, Pakistan and some Middle Eastern countries.
The weakening RF's aggressive policy determines dangerous consequences for Europe. It is obvious that Moscow will not stop arming rebel separatists in the Donbas in order to create a “frozen conflict”. This means that the war in the east of Ukraine will not stop, and Western sanctions will be used in 2015 too. At this, there is a real danger of the Russian escalation of the conflict and, respectively, introduction of additional sanctions. In this case, the situation may develop as follows:
1. There is a possibility that Russia will take a series of cyber attacks on major western financial or state institutions, which was confirmed by the recent events in Germany. Cyber war is part of the “hybrid” war unleashed by the Russian Federation.
2. Russia intends by its actions to “test” NATO and its ability to respond to Moscow's clearly aggressive actions, but without getting involved in an open conflict. Besides, with the help of such actions the Russian Federation is trying to identify separatist enclaves in Europe, counting on their support in the future, as well as on “wobbling” of the situation in them.
3. Moscow in no way intends to “let go” Moldova which hopes to deepen integration with the EU. Despite the fact that Moldova, unlike Ukraine, by and large, is not of a strategic importance for Russia, Moscow is trying to keep it in its exclusive zone of influence. The “frozen” conflict in Trans-Dniester allows Moscow to influence the situation in Moldova.
For Europe, Moldova is also not of great importance, but with the precedent established by Ukraine, Brussels will have to respond to any Russian attempts to block the progress in relations between the West and Chisinau.
4. It is expected that Russia will keep trying to neutralize the economic sanctions imposed against it by the USA and the EU. Moreover, Moscow might withdraw from the Arms Control Treaty. If negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program fail, Russia will be ready to break the regime of sanctions against Tehran. It is able to trigger the process of strategic reorientation of Iran to China, although in this case the IRI will be much weaker than its partners.
5. In 2015, Russia will try to develop and deepen its relations with China in security and the financial spheres, despite the fact that Beijing prefers cooperation first of all with the United States.
Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical tensions in the region, economic prospects of the Russian Federation, Ukraine and other CIS countries for 2015 are extremely none too good. In the Russian Federation has been predicted almost zero growth (0.2 %) of GDP, but is expected a real fall of the economy (to -3-3.5 %), while the high cost of capital will be deterring private investments. The prospect of a deep recession in Ukraine (-0.8 % of GDP) remains. In all the countries of the CIS in 2015 inflation will grow, national currencies will go down in value. To a lesser extent this will affect exporters of energy carriers from Central Asian countries and the Caucasus states.
Prospects for the development of the situation in the Near, Middle East and North Africa in 2015 will directly depend on how active the Islamist terrorist organization “Islamic State” is. Despite the fact that the IS has suffered heavy losses in manpower and military equipment in Iraq and Syria, it still retains a significant military power and influence in the Islamic world.
As expected, the IS will be growing by creating its branches in Yemen, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, which will inspire many Islamist (jihadi) organizations and ultraconservative Muslims, as well as will provide it with the influx of thousands of new mercenaries. The IS has already established itself as an organization of militant Islam, which shows the loss of positions by moderate Islamic movements and the increasing influence of Islamist organizations.
The growing influence and success of the IS could undermine the financial well-being, which is the basis of prosperity of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and several other Arab states in the region. Besides, the IS will try to undermine the unity of Arab states and prove that there isn't and can't be a strong alliance of Muslim countries with the United States and the Western world. The ongoing war could completely undermine the tourism industry and disrupt the investment climate in the region.
We can assume that Shiite formations, Kurdish forces “Peshmerga”, the Iraqi Army and Sunni tribes, with the active support of the USA and its allies, will be able to withstand the IS, but they will not achieve a final victory and it is unlikely they will be able to take under their control the territory of the “Caliphate”. It should be remembered that the IS arose on some uncontrolled by central power territories of Syria and Iraq, actively speculating on anti-government sentiments among Sunni groups of populations.
Alternatively, one can assume that if the IS' rebels try to seize new (Shiite) areas in Iraq, Iran will not remain indifferent and will try to stop them. In these circumstances, the Iraqi government will do its utmost to stabilize the country, to increase oil production, which will positively influence the situation in the country as a whole. In more stable Sunni states such as Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where there are powerful security forces, the IS will actually have no chances to consolidate and develop its activities.
As a result, we can say that the “Islamic State” will not disappear, and his influence on the development of the situation in the region will remain the same.
At this, it definitely will not produce significant military successes, as it was in 2014, and will not be able to expand the territory “of the Arab Caliphate.”
In 2015 there will take place further aggravation of confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, between Sunnis and Shiites in the region. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, the very internal policies of these countries contribute to strengthening of the conflict. Secondly, continuation of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, regardless of their results, in itself provokes Riyadh to hostile actions against Iran.
The reason for conflict between Tehran and Riyadh is almost obvious. In Iran, the vast majority of the political elite sees the decline in oil prices solely as part of Saudi Arabia's plot in order to undermine the Iranian economy. The followers of a strict policy towards the Kingdom have received clear support from President Hassan Rouhani.
As for the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, it is expected, a comprehensive agreement will not be reached. If Washington imposes new sanctions against Tehran, it will begin to respond pursuing a more aggressive regional policy, taking sides with Saudi Arabia. If the diplomatic process on nuclear talks becomes even more protracted and focuses on “long-term interim agreement”, and Iran patiently waits for easing sanctions, Saudi Arabia will feel “offended” and will begin to more aggressively defend its regional interests.
Even a partial agreement in favor of Iran will increase the level of Saudi Arabia's non-confidence in Washington's policy. Again, if a comprehensive or partial solution is achieved, for the Saudis the worst nightmare will become a reality. The monarchs of Saudi Arabia believe that such a deal will lead to a significant rapprochement of the USA with Iran, and will largely undermine the security of the Saudi Kingdom, and the Islamic Republic of Iran will become a powerful regional economic state.
Of course, a direct armed conflict between Tehran and Riyadh today is unlikely, although the threat of deterioration of relations between them will be destabilizing the region in 2015. Recent events in Yemen (capture of a part of the capital of Sana'a by Houthis), the election of Haider al-Abadi the Prime Minister of Iraq, the IRI and KSA's different approaches to solving the problem in Syria and Lebanon also in a certain way affect their relationship. So, in 2015 the situation in the region will remain tense and threatening with new geopolitical shocks.
The complex political situation on the eve of parliamentary elections in Israel (will be held in March 2015) and their possible outcome, the HAMAS’ desire to gain a greater political weight is aggravating the situation in the zone of the “hushed” Israeli-Palestinian conflict. At this, the probability of a new exacerbation, both from the Gaza Strip, and from other parts of the West Bank in 2015, remains very high.
Besides, the possibility of armed confrontations and terrorist threats in 2015 will remain in “hot spots” of the African continent. The situation will be very hectic in Libya, Sudan and South Sudan, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Central African Republic and several other African countries.
The efforts of the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the European Union and all the world's leading countries and international organizations, scientists, allocated financial and medical resources will provide grounds for optimistic forecast in the fight against the epidemic of Ebola fever. The WHO has already recorded the steady decline in new cases in three African countries affected by the epidemic, which have suffered most of all (in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone), as well as a significant reduction in the spread of the virus in other countries. Along with the success in the development of an experimental vaccine, it allows us to hope that the spread of the deadly outbreak of fever will be stopped in 2015. We will be able to speak about complete getting rid of Ebola not earlier than next year.
The situation in Ukraine will remain difficult throughout 2015. And the main reason for this, of course, is the ongoing armed conflict in the east. How will it develop? Will it get aggravated or will it be “frozen”? Can there be a peaceful way out of this situation? To answer these questions is almost impossible. First and foremost, because the principal bearer of responsibility here is the Russian leadership, and its plans and actions, as shown by events, are unpredictable. At the same time, this does not remove the responsibility from the Ukrainian leadership and political elite for the lack of full-value reforms in the political (constitutional), juridical and economic, security and defense spheres, energy security and defence, for the pretense of fighting corruption, deregulation, and so on. Moreover, against the background of the lack of progress in the implementation of essential reforms needed by the country, European and world community becomes more restrained in giving both, the previously announced and a new economic aid to Ukraine.
In general, so far one thing is definitely clear - the year 2015 will be filled with geopolitical events, and, with a clear priority of their political, rather than economic solutions. Politics today has become more important than the economy.
