January 22, 2014

Forecast and Prospects. What Awaits Us beyond the Horizon?

Prospective directions of development of the situation in the world and around Ukraine in 2014 and in the nearest years.

Without careful study and understanding of the dynamics of the development of the world economy and military-political processes, it is impossible to predict their near and medium term future. In particular, this perspective can be determined by analyzing the content and nature of the process of 2013, and, accordingly, to project them for 2014 and the nearest coming years.

Given this, as well as features of the situation in the world in 2013, it can be stated that the main trend in the development of the world situation in the current year will be further confrontation of interests of the two leading centers of power — the USA and China — which will go beyond the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) and become global, encompassing other world regions.

 

http://ria.ru/world/20131115/977217419.html

In the nearest future the USA will try to defend its positions of a leading center of power in the world with the help of the stable development of the national economy, strengthening its state security, as well as strengthening its influence in key regions of the world.

In the economic sphere, the USA will focus on the development of high-tech sectors of the economy, on attracting foreign investments, deepening economic and trade relations with the European Union and countries of the Asia-Pacific region. The USA is ready for revolutionary changes in the energy sector, in particular, to the transition to the use of shale oil, similar to how it was done with shale gas, which has completely eliminated the country's dependence on foreign energy carriers (primarily from the unstable region of the Middle East). It will finally transform the country from an importer of hydrocarbons to their exporter.

U.S. balance of payments. Expected shortfall of 101 billion US dollars

U.S. balance of payments. Expected shortfall of 101 billion US dollars. http://elitetrader.ru/i

 

Tracked ATV Riptide based on the principle of remote control

Tracked ATV Riptide based on the principle of remote control 
http://hontos.ru/

The USA will continue to raise the efficiency of its defence sphere. To do this, it will optimize the objectives, composition and size of the national Armed Forces, will equip them with the latest high-precision systems, aerospace, laser and robotic arms and military equipment. Increased attention the USA will pay to achieving the advantage over potential opponents in the computer field, which promises to soon become the new battleground between the major centers of power.

Based on its economic achievements and military capabilities, the United States will strengthen its positions in the Asia-Pacific Region, Europe, the Middle East, Central and South-East Asia, as well as in other regions, which, in its opinion, are strategically important for American people.

The main tool in the implementation of the external interests of the USA will remain the North-Atlantic Alliance, which due to the economic strengthening the USA and European countries, will get every opportunity for full development.

The main tasks of NATO in 2014 will be the completion of the operation in Afghanistan, ensuring the stability of Kosovo and fight against piracy in the Indian Ocean. In contrast to the Russian military activity, will intensify grow the activity of the Alliance in Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltics and in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Region.

http://hvylya.org/

With regard to the People's Republic of China, it will continue to pursue its strategy of building the PRC as a new center of power at the global level. To do this, it will seek to maintain relatively rapid development of its economy, strengthen its positions in the Asia-Pacific Region, defend and promote its economic interests on a global scale. The main direction of economic Chinese policy will remain expanding the domestic market while strengthening the Chinese financial and economic presence in other countries, primarily in Asia-Pacific, South-East and Central Asia, Europe, Middle East and Africa. The most important trade partners of China will remain Russia and the United States.

RMB deposits (blue, left scale) and nominated in RMB international trade (orange, right scale) in Hong Kong

RMB deposits (blue, left scale) and nominated in RMB international trade (orange, right scale) in Hong Kong 
http://mixednews.ru
/

At the same time, China will not give up its attempts to achieve military parity with the USA in the Asia-Pacific Region, while maintaining a confident edge over the rest of the region. China will increase its naval presence in the Asia-Pacific Region (putting into service aircraft carrying units and expanding system of naval base, included), enhance combat capabilities and mobility of the ground forces, and create new missile and aircraft systems. Particular attention will also be paid to strengthening the strategic nuclear forces of China as the basis for ensuring the global balance of forces with the USA and Russia.

Activity of other centers of power, especially of the European Union and the Russian Federation, will keep growing.

Economic strengthening of the European Union will increase the USA, PRC and Russia’s interest to it, which see it as one of the most promising trade partners. This will affect the strengthening of the EU, enhancing its role in the world. However, the activities of the European Union will be limited for the most part by the development of economic cooperation with other countries, as well as by participation in peacekeeping, stabilization and anti-piracy operations in certain regions of the world.

Internal policy of the EU will focus on consolidating its own positive trends in economic development, strengthening stability in Europe and the EU's enlargement due to the Western Balkan countries, as well as on strengthening the unity of the organization and the development of its institutional structures. The EU will maintain its openness to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, while requiring them to comply with European rules and regulations.

However, in its development, the EU will not be able to avoid a lot of problems. Mainly because some European countries do not have time to resolve in a short time their economic difficulties, while others will strive for greater autonomy in internal matters. Besides, we cannot ignore the spread of separatist tendencies in some EU countries, in particular, Scotland — in Great Britain, in Northern provinces of Italy and in the Basque Country — Spain.

Relying on some achieved in 2013 successes, Russia will try to resume construction within the framework of the Eurasian Union those positions, through which it has reason to consider itself “a big world's state.” Those will be the steps to increase pressure on the CIS countries with a view to force Ukraine to finally abandon European integration, to not let signing Moldova and Georgia sign Association Agreements with the European Union initialed during the summit of “Eastern Partnership” of the EU in November 2013 in Vilnius, as well as to complete the process of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan's joining the Customs Union.

Having reached the desired at post-Soviet territories, Russia will be able to focus on realization of its own interests in Europe. It will try to increase its influence in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics, to split the relationship between “old” and “new” EU members, to increase its presence in the energy sector of the European Union.

The World Bank has downgraded the outlook for economic growth of Russian economy
http://delyagin.livejournal.com/

Implementation of these tasks will be complicated by the falling level of the Russian economy due to increased negative conditions in foreign demand for Russian energy carriers as the basis for its exports and the source of filling the state budget of the Russian Federation.

Another problem for Russia will be caused by the increased activity of Islamic extremists in the North Caucasus and other Muslim regions of the Russian Federation, in particular, in the Russian Volga region (under the influence of events in Afghanistan and Central Asia). There is no doubt that the country's ethnic and religious contradictions will grow.

Russia's domestic problems will also adversely affect the economic development of the main partners of the Russian Federation from among the CIS countries, as well as the activities of the Russian integration structures at the post-Soviet territories, including the Customs Union.

Center of power in the multi-polar world. Pole 1. Political. “Asian elephant.” UNSC, control borders and territories

Center of power in the multi-polar world. Pole 1. Political. “Asian elephant.” UNSC, control borders and territories
http://russiancouncil.ru/

All these processes, this way or other, will be destabilizing the situation at the former USSR territories, will provoke social unrests. Especially in Central Asia, where there are large economic problems, tension in inter-state and inter-ethnic relations. Besides, the region's security will be threatened by the Islamic extremism, the origins of which now come from Afghanistan. Danger from it will increase especially towards the end of 2014, when International Forces will be leaving the Afghani territory.

Center of power in the multi-polar world. Pole 2. Military. Nuclear club, SCO, BRICS, Global Commons: space and ocean

Center of power in the multi-polar world. Pole 2. Military. Nuclear club, SCO, BRICS, Global Commons: space and ocean

Naturally, these problems of Central Asia will have a negative impact on neighboring regions, especially on the Muslim regions of Russia, particularly in the North Caucasus and the Volga region. It will be impossible to avoid growth of ethnic tensions and radical Islamism there. It is possible that the extremist wave will come to Ukraine, affecting, in particular, the Muslim community of the Crimea.

Center of power in the multi-polar world. Pole 3. Economic. “Asian Firebird”. Workforce “to grow into” intellectual capital, natural resources

Center of power in the multi-polar world. Pole 3. Economic. “Asian Firebird”. Workforce “to grow into” intellectual capital, natural resources

There will be no desired peace in the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia.

Center of power in the multi-polar world. Pole 4. Demographic. “Asian eagle”. Demographic trends over the past 10 years

Center of power in the multi-polar world. Pole 4. Demographic. “Asian eagle”. Demographic trends over the past 10 years

The list of the most troubled countries will remain as follows:

Syria — where in the nearest future won't be settled the protracted armed conflict between the government and the opposition, within the opposition forces of different orientation, although the international community is taking steps to resolve the crisis and liquidate Syrian chemical weapons;

Egypt — where will continue confrontation between the secular (military) government and Islamist forces, accompanied by protests of various political forces and extremist activity in the North of the Sinai Peninsula;

Afghanistan — where will continue active armed actions of radical Islamic organizations, even after the withdrawal of International Forces from Afghanistan and the beginning of preparations for the presidential elections;

Iraq — in which will continue interreligious and interethnic conflicts, enhanced by active attempts of Shiite leaders to establish the country's unipersonal power.

Center of power in the multi-polar world. Pole 5. Civilization. “Asian black horse”. Overall Eurasian cultural genetic code

Center of power in the multi-polar world. Pole 5. Civilization. “Asian black horse”. Overall Eurasian cultural genetic code

Besides, due to the contradictions of local nature and armed confrontation, it will be restless in Libya, Yemen, Sudan and South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Republic of South Africa and some other African countries as well as in Pakistan and Thailand.

It should be borne in mind that it is a pragmatic policy of the new Iranian leadership that will contribute to positive changes in the settlement of the situation around the Iranian nuclear issue. These changes will ensure significant changes in the life of the Middle East. Should be expected a decrease in the conflict potential in the region, strengthening of regional positions of Western countries and international organizations that will be possible thanks to the normalization of relations with Iran. At the same time, Russia's ability to use Middle East problems for its own purposes will be decreasing.

Lifting of international sanctions against Iran will also contribute to weakening tensions around the IRI. And this will increase shipments of Iranian oil to the world market and, consequently, reduce energy prices.

It will be complicated in the Asia-Pacific Region, which will become a new source of tension of regional and global levels.

First of all, due to the growing of both, regional confrontation between the USA and China, territorial contradictions existing because of disputed island areas between China and neighboring countries.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula because of conflicting relations between the DPRK and South Korea and the United States also cannot be avoided in the nearest future.

“Knowledge of the relationship of space, solar, climatic, economic, information technologies in a single system allows for more efficient and regularly redrawing of the map of the world with minimal cost and risk. Geopolitical, often subconscious, goal of a “certain” system is the world domination with minimum losses for this “certain” system, but not for the world community

“Knowledge of the relationship of space, solar, climatic, economic, information technologies in a single system allows for more efficient and regularly redrawing of the map of the world with minimal cost and risk. Geopolitical, often subconscious, goal of a “certain” system is the world domination with minimum losses for this “certain” system, but not for the world community” 
http://economics-21.narod.ru/

So, in 2014 and in the longer term the situation in the world, Europe and around Ukraine will be quite complicated and contradictory. If we define the main trend in the development of the global military-political situation, it is obvious that the global competition will continue between the USA and China in political, economic and security spheres.

Situation in Europe and Eurasia will be characterized by the conflict of interests of regional and superregional centers of power, among which the main role will be played by EU/NATO and Russia. The USA and China will also be strengthening their influence in the region.

If we define the challenges and threats to national security and interests of Ukraine, they will undoubtedly be associated with active actions of Russia, trying at all costs to increase its influence at the former Soviet territories. Ukraine will feel the effects of increasing economic problems of the Russian Federation, which is considered one of our main economic partners.

Instability in Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic and the Black Sea region will only be provoked by sharpening of the regional confrontation between the USA/NATO and Russia. This instability will have a direct impact on Ukraine. Ukraine will also be affected by instability in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.

And undoubtedly Ukraine will be affected by “frozen” conflicts at the former Soviet territories (first of all in Trans-Dniester) as well as by the enhanced activity of Islamic extremists in the Russian North Caucasus.