Against the background of another escalation of the situation in Syria, lately in a number of Russian media have emerged publications on the formation in Russia and Ukraine of so-called “Russian-Ukrainian corps” meant for operations in Syria on the side of B. Asad’s regime. According to these publications, initiated by retired military and special services personnel, is being carried out recruitment of “volunteers” from among Russian and Ukrainian citizens “to help the Syrian Armed Forces to restore Constitutional order in the country", i.e. “to suppress actions of terrorists and extremists who are trying to capture power in the country”. According to the statement of the organizers of this action, to the “volunteer” corps have signed up several thousand people.
In general, these publications are openly provocative and aiming at an obvious goal — creating the impression of a “similar attitude of Russia and Ukraine to the events in Syria in terms of support to the current leadership of the country”. Due to this, as Russia tries to strengthen its international positions, which are experiencing significant losses due to Moscow's support to the dictatorial regime of B. Asad (today, apart from Russia, only Iran and to some extent China, are on the side of the leadership of Syria) and to oppose Ukraine to the West within the framework of the overall Russian strategy of restoration of Russian control over Ukraine.
Relevance of the mentioned above issues for Ukraine needs more careful consideration of events in Syria and around it, which absolutely differ from those estimates that the Russian side is trying to impose on.
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| The armed conflict in Syria has much deeper reasons than confrontation between the government and the opposition and is connected with historical contradictions between different currents of Islam, particularly Shia and Sunni http://forum.polismi.org/ |
Thus, the armed conflict in Syria has much deeper reasons than confrontation between the government and the opposition (including extremist and terrorist organizations) and is connected with historical contradictions between different currents of Islam, particularly Shia and Sunni. To date, such contradictions have become exactly an armed confrontation in Syria, which is essentially a typical civil war on religious grounds between the Shiite minority, which represents the Syrian authorities and the Sunni majority, which is in opposition.
The parties to the conflict in Syria are supported by external forces, namely: by Islamic countries and organizations of Shiite and Sunni persuasion, as well as by other nations with their own military and political interests in the region.
Thus, on the side of the current government of Syria traditionally stands the Shiite Iran, the Shiite leadership of Iraq and the Islamic extremist organization “Hezbollah”, as well as Russia and China, who consider B. Asad’s regime their main ally in the Middle East. In contrast, the opposition forces of Syria are supported by Sunni Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as by most Western countries and international organizations that have relied on Sunnis in the struggle for influence in the Middle East region.
Considering the circumstances, development of the situation in Syria depends on potentials of the Syrian government and opposition, and to a much greater extent, on external aid on the part of their allies.
Thus, thanks to supplies of arms and ammunition, assisting in recruiting and training militants and organizational support from the foreign opponents of the regime of B. Asad, by April 2013 opposition militias managed to have established control over about two-thirds of the territory of Syria, and to begin measures for capturing the capital city of Damask. All this led to the real possibility of a fall of B. Asad’s regime, which was in a critical position.
In its turn, this has created a critical threat to the interests also of Russia and Iran which faced the prospect of final losing their positions in the Middle East (after the change of regime in Libya in 2011). Besides, the fall of B. Asad’s regime in Syria would provide the U.S. and its allies with a significantly greater opportunity to carry out a military operation against Iran as well.
In this regard, Russia and Iran have intensified measures to prevent such a development of events by strengthening their support to the current leadership of Syria. For this purpose, were increased amounts of arms and ammunition for the needs of the Syrian security forces, for which purpose were widely used Russian and Iranian military transport aircraft and warships of the RF Navy. Meanwhile, to Syria were sent military instructors and special purpose subunits from the Corps of Guards of the Islamic Revolution of Iran and. According to a number of reports, military advisers from Russia (mostly experts in defense, repair and maintenance of armored vehicles and counter-terrorist activities).
Besides, under the influence of Iran on the side of the regime of B. Asad were several thousands of Shiite militia extremist movement "Hezbollah" from South Lebanon who supported the Syrian government troops in establishing control of the South-Western regions of the country near the Syrian-Lebanese border. Substantial assistance to the Government of Syria provided also Iraq's Shiite leadership that blocked arm supply to the Syrian opposition from Iraqi territory.
Thus, the above mentioned steps of Russia and Iran were not concealed by their leaderships, but, on the contrary, they were widely reported in the media within the framework of political and informational pressure on opponents of B. Asad’s regime.
All this allowed the Syrian government to regroup their forces, to create striking forces of troops in most important areas and to begin the counteroffensive against the opposition. During the fighting Syrian Armed Forces, supported by Sunni militia groups and armed forces of the "Hezbollah" movement managed to push groups of oppositional «Free Syrian Army" (FSA) from Damascus, and regain control of the border areas with Lebanon, which made much more difficult logistics supplies to the FSA from Lebanese territory.
Today, the main efforts of the Syrian government forces are focused on the elimination of rebel militias in Aleppo, which is the second largest city in the country and in fact its economic capital.
Commenting on the above mentioned situation, the governments of Syria and its allies, especially Russia, have claimed a “hostilities break on the Syrian territory in favor of B. Asad’s regime”, that “creates conditions for the final defeat of the opposition in the nearest future”.
For its part, to prevent such a possibility, foreign opponents of the current government of Syria have stepped up assistance to FSA armed formations to improve their combat potential for actions against Syrian government troops. Thus, on May 27 this year the EU Council actually granted permission to European countries for the supply of arms to Syria “in order to protect the civilian population of Syria” (the term of the relevant embargo ended on the 31st of May this year, but was not extended by the EU leadership).
In early June this year a principal decision to send weapons to Syrian rebels was made by the U.S. President Barack Obama. Possibilities of increasing the supply of weapons to Syria opposition forces are also considered by leaderships of a number of Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Libya.
At present plans for such deliveries are not being made public, but according to the statement of the Commander of FSA S. Idris in his interview to Al Arabiya, the Syrian opposition’s basic needs include anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons (up to 200 "Konkurs" anti-tank Russian-made missiles, and 100 portable anti-aircraft defense systems, as well as 300 thousand cartridges for the Kalashnikov assault rifle, 50 thousand machine gun cartridges and 100 thousand cartridges for other small arms.
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The US Ministry of Defense discusses plans for introducing the limited "no-fly" zone over Syria http://obozrevatel.com/ |
Along with this, the US Ministry of Defense discusses plans for introducing the limited "no-fly" zone over Syria. According to the concept of the Pentagon, this area has to spread to 25 km deep into Syrian territory along the border with Turkey and Jordan. The formal purpose of creating a "no-fly" zone is called “protection of Syrian refugees from aggressive actions on the part of B. Asad’s regime”. At the same time, thanks to it, conditions can be provided to keep under the rebels’ control the border areas of Syria as places of concentration of armed opposition groups and a springboard for further actions against the regime of B. Asad.
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| In 2012 in North-Eastern Turkey were deployed six batteries of SAM systems "Patriot" from the Armies of the USA, Germany and the Netherlands http://ursa-tm.ru/ |
In fact, the USA and its allies have already begun to deploy necessary forces and means for the establishment of such a zone. For instance, in 2012 in North-Eastern Turkey were deployed six batteries of SAM systems "Patriot" from the Armies of the USA, Germany and the Netherlands. In June this year, after the joint training of the USA and Jordan, at the Jordanian territory were left another two batteries of SAM and American F-16.
In creating "no-fly" zones over Syria, may also be involved SAMs and fighter aircrafts from the Armed Forces of Israel. At the same time, Israeli aircrafts have already applied attacks on Syrian territory under the pretext of destroying military depots and convoys that provide arms supplies to the Islamic extremist movement "Hezbollah". In particular, in May this year Israeli aircrafts inflicted rocket attacks on control points, places of deployment and warehouses of the 4th Tank Division of the National Guard of Syria, which is the main striking force of B. Asad in struggle against the rebels.
Actually all this means implementing of the Libyan scenario in Syria, which once led to the fall of B. Asad. Thus, the increase in aid to Syrian opposition on the part of its foreign allies has caused a slowdown of attacks of government forces that were actually stopped at Aleppo. Besides, the Syrian government forces have been unable to stop supplying the rebels with weapons from Turkey and Jordan.
Absence of real prospects of victory of Syria's current government over insurgency finds more and more understanding both in Syria and in neighboring countries. Thus, following the release of the US plans to increase aid to Syrian opposition forces, renewed instances of mass desertions of personnel of Syrian government forces. In particular, on June 16 this year for Turkey left 73 Syrian military servicemen (including 7 Generals and 20 Colonels) and their families.
In its turn, on the 17th of June the leadership of Egypt severed diplomatic relations with Syria and advocated the need for external intervention in the development of the conflict in the country, causing irreparable damage to international positions of the Syrian regime in the Middle East.
The above mentioned circumstances obviously indicate the futility of attempts of allies of the regime of B. Asad to change the situation in Syria (by means of sending additional numbers of mercenaries to the country included), which could only prolong the armed conflict at the Syrian territory. The above said confirms once again extremely provocative nature of the plans for sending Ukrainian “volunteers” to Syria, which only undermines the interests of Ukraine (which, actually want to achieve the organizers of this action). Moreover, actions on the side of the regime of B. Asad will constitute a direct threat to the safety and lives of most of “volunteers”, which will become critical in case of overthrow of the current government of the country. Evidence of this is the fate of Ukrainian “volunteers” in Libya, who were taken prisoners of war by the rebels in 2011 and are still in custody.
