Against the background of the Russian military's constant arms-rattling at the Ukrainian border (where are also involved mock fire-fighting, railway, rescuing, psychological, and even human-rights-defending «troops»), and the Kremlin's propaganda machine's statements about the extremely high support of Putin's policies by Russians and ineffectiveness of the sanctions against Russia, an attentive analysis of the situation in Russia shows an increase in crisis and centrifugal tendencies, and the elite and their descendants' being not ready to live under sanctions. Moreover, Moscow's strategists should not forget about the boomerang effect when any day now, following the Siberian, Ural and Kaliningrad People's Republics, there will arise Moscow, Kuban and the Far Eastern Republic, and other artificial «state formations», about which the Kremlin cares so much at the territory of Ukraine. As the phrase goes, the process is already under way...
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Inevitable the Putin's regime failure is able to provoke the collapse of the Russian Federation http://dv-gazeta.info/ |
Despite the bravura estimates of the resistance of the Russian economy to the sanctions, the presidential administration and the government of the Russian Federation are seriously concerned about the unanimity (with some exceptions) of the international community about the use immediately of sectoral sanctions against the aggressor-state.
Thus, D. Medvedev, July 27 (a Sunday!) held an emergency meeting where on the agenda there was an issue of reducing the negative impact of the EU and USA's economic sanctions. The heads of Russian foreign trade missions were tasked with expanding cooperation with «loyal to Russia» European countries (Austria, Italy, France, Slovakia and Cyprus) and individual regions (Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia, etc.), creating with the participation of Russian businesses («Gazprom», «VTB», «Russian Post») of lobbying structures (such as the «Council of the Russian Economy in Germany») for cooperation with associations of industrialists and businessmen and foreign corporations, a significant portion of profits of which is formed due to transactions with Russian partners (by the example of the «Eastern Committee of the German Economy»).
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Territory of the state entities that may arise after the collapse of the modern Russian Federation |
In particular, Austria has been defined as one of the most important European sites for the Russian Federation to transfer know-how and exchange high technologies, to ensure activities of which the Russian Trade Representation in Vienna has established the Center to support innovations; in Italy, with the assistance of the trade mission, has been formed a contact area for Russian and Italian small and medium-sized businesses;
In her turn, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation E. Nabiullina has ordered the heads of banking institutions operating at the territory of Ukraine, to immediately transfer available funds to the accounts of major banks, so that the latter do not fall under the sanctions of the Ukrainian side. In case of failure of the selected operations, it is recommended to use the funds for the acquisition of real property assets registering bank employees or trusted partners as owners.
The task to make positive «forecasts» has been set before all federal ministries and departments, as well as before the Russian «science». In particular, the government is counting on «research» of the Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute V. Makarov, Doctors of Economic Sciences V. Okrepilov D. Valovoy. Attracting foreign members of the Russian Academy of Sciences, they must help the Kremlin propagandists to convince citizens in great prospects of Russia [without Western technologies and finance, and under long-term sanctions], and in the government's constant caring about people's welfare.
No doubt that «academics» will remind V. Putin that in 2013, 47% of the entire issued by the Russian public financial institutions bond was taken to the financial markets of the EU; none of the state programs that are being realized in the country, not to mention the «prospective Crimean» ones (like the Kerch bridge), has been provided with the resources; over the next 10 years the economic and social development of Russia will slow down due to the lack of financial and human resources, poor infrastructure of areas, deterioration and exclusion of fixed assets and low levels of the technological progress in the country.
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8 friends of Putin. Instead of tandem in Russia there is politburo now http://www.aif.ru/ |
The Russian economic science will possibly remind also of the government's having no substitution funds (other than «Putin's friends»' means «earned by back-breaking work»), to compensate for the increase in the cost of external borrowings [as a result of restrictions on Russian state-owned financial institutions' access to the capital markets of the EU], extremely needed to support the national economy. This will further enhance the atmosphere of uncertainty at the market, worsen the business environment in Russia and accelerate the pace of outflow of foreign and domestic capital, as well as will lead to a sharp increase in the value of the securities issue for Russian investors, even if they manage to find an alternative source of financing in third markets. The pressure on the state budget of the Russian Federation can be significantly strengthened by serious problems with finding a replacement for EU markets in the nearest future, as investors from third countries, even with the proviso that they are not subject to the EU's sanctions, will not be eager to participate in the sale of new securities, issued by Russian business entities, or will demand greater rates of return on them.
Apart from administrative and economic countermeasures, the Kremlin who has chosen the state ideology of National conservatism has to study in depth the mood in the subjects of the Federation and regional elites and to respond immediately to all transformations, encroaching on V. Putin's «immunity from mistakes».
Moscow is especially concerned with the situation in regions, where the majority is the Islamic population, and the Muslim community of the Russian Federation as a whole. Based on estimates of Russian authorities, today the Muslim community and the leading Muslim clerics of Russia are clearly divided into two main camps — representatives of traditional Islam and adherents of its non-traditional forms (Wahhabism, «Hizb ut-Tahrir», «Jamaat al-Tablighi,» pseudo-Sufism and other sects /organizations).
Against the background of the Kremlin's flirtation with R. Kadyrov and other odious leaders and degradation of the pro-Moscow Central Spiritual Administration of Muslims, one can notice a massive increase in the influence of the Council of Muftis of Russia and the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of the European Russia (including through financial injections for corrupted public officials at the Federal and local levels), proliferation of non-traditional forms of Islam in Saratov, Penza and Ulyanovsk regions, in Mordovia, the Perm Krai (territory), Bashkortostan, Central, South and North-West Federal District. It is expected that within the next five years in Russia will significantly expand and strengthen positions of the radical Islam, while in the long term perspective its representatives will get all the key positions in a large part of subjects of the Federation.
In this regard, the Russian Ministry of Justice has been tasked to mobilize legislators, religion scientists and imams-patriots in order to spread the traditional («correct») Islam, to enhance penalty for participation in radical Muslim organizations, to provide financial support to «patriotic» clergy.
Experts have also concluded that the West's unexpected strengthening of the sanctions has somehow disoriented the Kremlin on options for response and measures to neutralize their negative consequences for the «pillars» and «purses» of the regime. Despite the optimistic news releases from sources close to the government, it has been demonstrated by the inadequate response of the close to the Russian leader billionaire G. Timchenko, which even the pro-Putin media failed to explain to the general public (probably because D. Kiselev is on holiday?).
This close to the president of the Russian Federation oligarch (to whom V. Putin even entrusted Labrador Koni's daughter from the first litter) began nervously to demand nationalization of his «amassed thanks to overwork» 15-billion-dollar assets, including 23% of Russia's biggest private gas producer «Novatek», 32% gas and oil-refinery holding «Sibur», more than 60% of the «Stroytransgaz», 30% of the coal-mining «Colmar» and 80% of the largest Russian private railway operator in the transport of oil «TRANSOIL», 49% of the German insurer «Sovag» and 7.8 % of the bank «Russia». In 2014 G. Timchenko has already managed to sell his part in a number of foreign companies, including Gunvor International B.V. (43.59%) and its affiliated companies, owning business terminals at Sheremetyevo and Pulkovo, Finnish air carrier Airfix Aviation Oy (99%) and oil trader IPP Oil Products (50%) [US Treasury believes that V. Putin also had investments in Gunvor]. Besides, the Russian-Finnish citizen G. Timchenko was inviting as an ally another oligarch V. Potanin. This way he can blab that Russian oligarchy will hand over other «Not Putin's» foreign assets.
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The experts decided on the future of Putin's inner circle http://lenta.ru/ |
The above activities and the reaction of the Russian side suggests that the West applied sanctions led to the establishment of new and strengthening of existing negative trends in the political, ethno-national, foreign, finance and other fields. This confuses Putin's inner circle, although the top political leadership of Russia tries not to file a form.
However, whatever the sanctions, they are still in the future affect the basic principles of the policy of Russian President, since control of Ukraine is of fundamental importance for the political future of Putin: Ukraine only accessory or part of the Russian geopolitical space history and culture remain for a large part of society [«Russian citizens»] measure the power of the ruler of the Russian Federation [Empire]. Because of this their perception of the world way of the Russian government and its long-term head cannot accept the fact that Ukraine, with its many Russian-speaking community can fully integrate into the EU, and even more so — in NATO. That is why Russia can not but provokes further destabilization of the situation in Ukraine, creating another area of the «frozen» conflict (as it took place in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria). Western sectoral sanctions should convince the Russian president that signals nonintersection Kiev «red line», which for the Kremlin is Ukraine's entry into NATO, are both «red line» for Vladimir Putin to the escalation of violence in the neighboring state. For it — full international isolation when not save any partners in the BRICS or Arab sheiks or individual African leaders nor the Latin American countries pariah.
