December 4, 2018

Presidential Elections — the Situation at the Start

November 28, 2018, Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Andriy Parubiy signed the Verkhovna Rada's Resolution on the appointment of the presidential elections for March 31, 2019. According to this decision of the Parliament, the presidential election campaign will start on the 31st of December 2018.

In fact, this campaign started at least a year ago. It was then that the headquarters of the largest political forces began deploying their networks and testing them in working mode. They also were buying advertising space and air time.

Taking into account that regular elections of Parliament Members of Ukraine should be held on October 27, 2019, representatives of different political forces decided to join the presidential election campaign as candidates for the presidency of Ukraine in order to use it to strengthen their positions on the eve of parliamentary elections.

There is also a large number of so-called “technical” candidates, who are promoted to solve specific problems.

Another reason for such a large number of contenders for the presidential candidate is that there is a very high uncertainty about the results of these elections today, which creates good conditions for the emergence of a so-called “black swan” — a candidate unknown to the society. Well-known and little-known Ukrainian politicians all claim to play this role.

According to the analysis of the results of sociological research and expert surveys, three groups of candidates for the post of President of Ukraine can be distinguished:

1st league:

  • A “Black Swan”
  • Yulia Timoshenko
  • Petro Poroshenko

2nd league:

  • Anatoliy Hrytsenko
  • Yuriy Boyko

3rd league:

  • Roman Bezsmertnyi, Dmytro Hnap, Yuriy Derevyanko, Serhiy Kaplin, Yuriy Kasyanov, Ruslan Koshulynskyi, Oleh Lyashko, Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, Andriy Sadovyi, Vitaliy Skotsyk, Svyatoslav Stetsenko, Serhiy Taruta, Michel Tereschenko, Mykola Tomenko, Victor Chumak and others.

This list will be significantly reduced at the stage of registration of candidates for the post of President of Ukraine because of the need for a high monetary fee and due to different legal details that will give reasons for the CEC of Ukraine not to register some of them for one reason or another.

But there may still be new applicants who will enter the game and significantly change it.