October 10, 2013

Bursts of Saudi Activity in Yemen

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Volodymyr Guzenko — a graduate of the Military Institute of Foreign Languages ​​(Moscow). Now Volodymyr Guzenko is in the Republic of Yemen, where he can watch one of the revolutions of the “Arab Spring” on the spot


“Wall Street Journal” has published an article that clearly tells about the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's being extremely concerned with the process of normalization of relations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran and, in fact, feels betrayed by its ally. “We need to learn from the enemies of the United States, how to deal with them,” — very clearly state the Kingdom's officials. This is not a declaration of war, but only if approached formally.

No wonder, that Saudi Arabia has simply no choice but to go right through, hoping to repeat the crisis of August 21. It can't just sit quietly and wait, — the article explicitly states that Iran is ready to raise Shiites in Kuwait, Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia itself, and the Saudis can do absolutely nothing about it, dropping out of the ongoing processes. Their actions are subject to the iron logic — it is necessary to try and destroy the emerging agreement between Iran and the United States. At any cost. It can't get worse!

Being left actually on their own, if we do not count Israel in as an “ally” of Saudia in confrontation with Iran, they have to literally go right through.

Now about Yemen. The province Jawf tribes have created a new Harak — the Movement for liberation of the occupied territories. The movement has been joined by other organizations of the same plan. Moreover, not confining itself to verbal threats, the tribes began practical preparations for the armed uprising of the Yemeni of Southern provinces of Saudi Arabia — Asir, Nejran and Jizan. Note again that all Yemenis in these provinces are Shiites…

The threat of rebellion, an armed uprising in Southern provinces has frightened the Saudi authorities. This is not a hypothetical Shia unrest in an Eastern Province or activation of a “revolution” in Bahrain... The authorities got jumpy, and there started the activity, with which I began.

Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Mansour
Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Mansour Ria.ru

First of all Saudiyya “pulled hard” on Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi.

First a rebellious General Ali Mohsin, on his return from Jeddah, where he had met with princes, began to persuade Hadi of the need for urgent and most severe measures to curb the “Ansar Allah” (“Companions of Allah”), i.e. Hussites. Saudis resent the Hussites allegedly keep capturing more and more territory — apart from Sa'dah they have created powerful enclaves in the provinces of Jawf, Ma'rib, Hajjah, Sana'a and in the capital itself, having moved South towards Ibba, al-Beida and a number of other provinces.

Here we should note that Shiites really had for centuries lived, mixed with Sunnis all over Yemen. They did not conquer territory, they just lived there. But during fighting side by side with the Hussites these Shiites, as a sign of solidarity with their brothers in the faith, eventually began to call themselves Hussites. Hence the illusion of “expansion”.

Moreover, Ali Mohsin has passed over the Saudis' demands of the need for physical destruction of Hussites! He has been fighting them for 10 years and the results are almost zero... Especially as to this day there is no accurate data on the ratio of the number of Shiites and Sunnis. Before the revolution of 1962 the Yemeni Kingdom was Shia one, the ratio was about 80 % Shiite and 20 % Sunni. Now the ratio is said by many to be exactly vice versa. The Ministry of Waqf (Ministry of Religious Affairs) in its census data of mosques states the contrary — Shiites make about 70%, the rest are the Sunnis. I prefer the following word combination: “the majority is the Shiites” or at least, their numbers are 50% to 50 %. Anyway, the Saudis demand from President Hadi through his adviser Ali Mohsin physical destruction of at least half of the population of the country!

Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Ali Hamdan conveyed to President Hadi the information of the Intelligence of KSA about the agreement between former President Saleh and the management of “Ansar Allah”, i.e. Hussites, about destabilization of the situation in Yemen, with the aim of weakening the government of Basindawa and President Hadi, positions of “Muslim Brotherhood”, followed by a military coup. Let me draw your attention to this word — “destabilization” — and only then a military coup.

Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh
Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh Donbass.ru

At the same time in Yemeni media “unexpectedly” unfolds hysterical campaign against President Saleh's son — Ahmed, who has returned to Sana'a from the UAE. “General Ahmed is a Yemeni General Sisi”; “Ahmed will head a coup!” etc. Naturally, the initiators of the campaign are the TV channel “Suheil” belonging to Hamid al-Ahmar, the newspaper “Al Sahwa” and others. They fear, undoubtedly fear that Egyptian “brothers”' fate will befall them...

October 6, a youth demonstration took place in the center of Sana'a, organized by “Isla” (“Muslim Brotherhood”), under the very odd slogan: “Preventive measures to thwart the military coup”... I did not understand what this implies...

“The movement to liberate the occupied lands”, which appeared some time ago in Jawf, demanded the return of three provinces to Yemen. Yemeni President Hadi supported this movement. The Ambassador Ali Hamdan passed over to President the leadership of KSA's demand to “reconsider and re-sign the 1998 border agreement”. President Hadi refused... And it immediately sent a conversation in a completely different direction — they began talking about war! Hadi confirmed the statements of “Kharak” in Jawf that the policy of Saudia has actually canceled the 1998 Agreement, and thus reanimated the Taif Agreement of 1934, in accordance with which Riyadh is obliged to return these provinces to Yemen. And if he does not fulfill these demands, there will be war. It should be noted — the liberation war is imminent...

At the same time, Ali Hamdan told about the Saudi leadership's demand to ban any exploration works at the territory of Jawf, a province of sovereign (so far) Yemen, where have been discovered massive oil reserves. This demand was rejected categorically, using Russian non-translatable lexis! The matter is that Ali Hamdan, the KSA Ambassador to Yemen, previously served as Ambassador to Kazakhstan, where he has got his own real estate, is a fan of Russia (even his eldest daughter went to school at the Russian Embassy in Sana'a). A television set in his office is permanently switched on channel Russia Today. He knows the Russian language, and therefore, despite the diplomatic protocol, replied in the same language and in the same spirit... In a word, they understood each other, as well as they both understood the fact that Riyadh's demands will lead to no good result. In other words, Saudia has suddenly realized that it has driven itself into the trap and its situation has really got worse. And then it performs some amazing somersaults...

Firstly, Saudi Arabia began to actively establish friendly relations with... Hussites, whom it had just demanded “to destroy physically.” It began actively and lavishly to finance Hussites, demanding from them only one thing — not to raise a rebellion in the three occupied provinces of KSA. There were other demands, or better to say, requests: to destabilize the situation in Yemen and to pave the way for the overthrow of the Basindawa's government and President Hadi... (You have already noticed, perhaps, that the same issues were discussed at the meeting of former President Saleh with leadership of Hussites, and in both cases destabilization and rocking the boat were discussed...). The Saudis were trying to kill the second hare too — to weaken Iran's influence on its fellow brothers Hussites. Note that both, Shiites and Sunnis are Yemenis who have never rejected “donations”. They took from the Saudis, and repeated the demand, as requests of the Saudis in general coincided with the agreements with Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Secondly... This Saudis' somersault illustrates the position and state of the Saudi leadership — the state of a cornered rat — rushing at everything and everybody. From Syria Saudis brought several battle groups, well-trained and having good experience of warfare against the regular army. Five of these groups were rushed to Yemen. Political security (PS) and Military Intelligence tracked the movement of all of these groups. Moreover, as they were moving in a Southerly direction, to the Hadramaut, it was decided to eliminate two groups. However, both the groups, just a few hours before the arrival of anti-terrorism forces into the area of interception, had literally disappeared. Management of PS correctly assessed this fact — at the top, in the leadership of PS or of Military Intelligence, there was a person having all the information and an operational link with terrorists, operating at a respectful distance from each other. Yemenis will sort this out themselves, I think.

One of these groups showed up in the capital of Hadramaut, in Al Mukalla and actually immediately captured the military town, where there were (now almost non-existing) the Headquarters of the 2nd Military District. Up to 40 soldiers were taken captive (read “hostage”). There was information that the Commander of the district was also among the hostages, but the information has not been confirmed so far, although it has not been denied either.

The beginning of the attack clearly indicates that it was taken by Islamists. Nobody else uses suicide bombers. The car packed with explosives flew into the territory of the checking point, and the driver - suicide bomber detonated the explosive device. The road was free, and a few cars with terrorists quickly rushed to their targets. The main among them was the three-story Headquarters' building which was captured almost immediately; no one had time to offer resistance.

There are eyewitnesses who claim that the terrorists were wearing uniforms of the Republican Guard (RG) and of the Central Security. Nevertheless, the terrorists were immediately announced “members of al-Qaeda, dressed in a military uniform”. But there are witnesses who also state that the cars came out of the little town located near the Headquarters. What does surprise, is the number of attackers —according to a rough estimate, there were at least 100-150 people, while the PS reported about 5 terrorist groups, numbering 25–40 people. I still think that the former, with a scandal dismissed RG, well could have strengthened the terrorist group, especially with a well informed “sleeper” somewhere at the top, with means of communication to all that...

Scheme of the town of the Military District 2. The arrow points to the Headquarters’ building
Scheme of the town of the Military District 2. The arrow points to the Headquarters’ building

Soon the “Operation Liberation” began. First attempts to liberate the town and the Headquarters totally failed. Experienced fighters swept clean subunits of the Yemeni regular Army, inflicting heavy losses. Tanks and artillery arrived and began methodically destroying gun emplacements of terrorists. The fire was mostly at the third floor... A warship began to bombard the Headquarters’ building from the sea. Judging by the caliber, it was at least a destroyer which the Yemeni Navy has not got yet. Most likely, the Americans helped... They also transferred from their base in Anada a platoon of Marines with the task to help...

U.S. Marines refused under the pretext that they knew neither the number of the enemy, nor the scheme of the Headquarters' building. In general, it was a sensible decision. By the way, note that the attackers did have schemes of the town, the Headquarters' building and the scheme of protection...

The terrorists did some strange, in my opinion, things. On the first day after the seizure, they shot 4 hostages from the soldiers and threw their bodies from a window of the third floor. On the second day, they also came with 4 more dead bodies, saying that they would do so every day, if shelling and attempts to free the object do not stop. This way the terrorists made ​​it clear that there would be no further development of the action and that their only aim was a spot terrorist attack for the sake of “destabilization” of the situation. And this brings us back to the idea of ​​a Saudi mastermind.

The 4 groups have not shown up so far... There is a report that in one of Saudi camps there are the 6th and 7th terrorist groups, transferred from Syria... Something to think about...

Seeing that the terrorists are not easy to take, and that already 8 persons from among the hostages were shot, it was decided not to stand on ceremony and a massive shelling from tanks and artillery began. Particularly assiduous was a destroyer, which actually destroyed half of the building, along with the defending and, unfortunately, with all the hostages... The shelling started at 16:30 on October 2 and stopped at 18.00. There was no firing back by then.

By this time the plane arrived in Al Mukalla by General Ahmed Ali and his company before they created Special Forces remaining loyal to him to this day. But do not dare to sweep: dark, waiting for the arrival of engineers to mine... In the morning on October 3rd Special Forces entered the town and the remains of Staff. On the same day there were 7 officers arrested the local garrison suspected terrorists in the promotion. Also noted another group, about 25 people, in three cars and weapons left from Al Mukalla to the west. The calculation of the sake checkpoint at the exit left them at gunpoint.

Where is the Al Mukalla, and where is Moscow...?

Where is the Al Mukalla, and where is Moscow...? http://idkstat.ru/mir/

Where is the Al Mukalla, and where is Moscow...? In Moscow emissaries “Hizb ut-Tahrir” is an open call for the faithful to fight the infidels by all means, that is, you and me...

In Syria, according to the FSB, the fighting in the ranks of the opposition 400 citizens of the Russian Federation, and in fact there are about 2 000 people. Part of them will come back... and unprincipled Saud, like a cornered rat, capable within 3–4 weeks to transfer to Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Kiev dozen, maybe more of just such terrorist groups. And this is a powerful force that will increase support for multiple local Islamists, workers hurt the opposition. For Saudiyi have no constraints, it is trapped, and do not forget that Russia violated the entire Saudi plan in Syria...

Finally — a couple of words about the new attack — the National Dialogue. Activities of ND officially ended on 18 September, but in fact he is still valid, since 6 working groups have not yet submitted their reports and recommendations. It seems to be a minor factor, but it was extremely dangerous.

ND as a hoop pulled the warring parties and the parties, it does prevent a civil war, in any case, warned the military actions of many Yemeni hot heads. But this constraint disappears, never giving meaningful results. And do you see that the situation has become more complicated... so many times now seriously considering the introduction of a state of emergency throughout the country.

We still have to wait a bit, and then “we will see...”