8 жовтня 2015

08.10.2015. Вийшов друком спеціальний випуск журналу «БІНТЕЛ» англійською мовою

Analysts and experts of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel” (Kyiv, Ukraine)  have prepared the special issue of “HYBRID WARS” AS A CONTINUATION OF “HYBRID POLICY”,  under the general editorship of Vice-President of the Center, Candidate of Military Sciences, Associate Professor, Lieutenant-General (ret.) Yuriy Radkovets.

In the context of the Russian annexation of the Autonomous Republic of the Crimea and Russia's armed aggression in the East of Ukraine, leading Western and Ukrainian political scientists and analysts have again “discovered” for themselves the concept of “hybrid warfare” or “hybrid” ways (methods) of organization and conduct of one country's armed aggression against another country (other countries).

But the phenomenon of “hybrid warfare” is not new. This is not a “revolutionary innovation”, because both, ancient and modern history knows many examples of it. Although each component of “hybrid war” in fact is not new and was used in almost all wars of the past, but there are unusual aspects in it: final uncertainty of the content, orientation and relationship of these components; high degree of unpredictability, dynamism and flexibility in the sequence of their application; edginess, deceit and cynicism of their actions, and growing importance of information, economic, energy and other aspects. At this, these aspects in some cases become dominating separate components and are no less important than the military (force) one.

There is no doubt that with time and development of new (high) technologies, “hybrid warfare” has undergone many upgrades and transformations, and today it is a true war — “hybrid” by the form and “asymmetrical” by meaning, and at this it is getting increasingly alarming and hard to find out. That is why the Russian annexation of the Crimea and aggression in the East of Ukraine have become a new impetus for the analysis and assessment of the phenomenon of the modern “hybrid war” by a reputable Ukrainian and Western experts.

The analysis by experts of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel” of available materials has showed that in these works they quite convincingly, thoroughly, deeply and professionally have analyzed the phenomenon of the purely “hybrid war” (“hybrid peace”), have defined its pre-conditions, stages of development and components (including informational, economic and energy ones), have emphasized the increasing role and place of non-military methods of pressure and using “asymmetric measures” against the enemy. In this context it is necessary to distinguish between these components, so perhaps it is appropriate to use the terms “hybrid information war”, “hybrid economic war” and “hybrid energy war”.

The well-known correlation of the categories “war” and “policy” shows that “... war is the continuation of politics by other means”. In the current situation of the Russian Federation's actual using against Ukraine of technologies and mechanisms of “hybrid war” (“hybrid peace”), a logical question arises: what is the essence, content and focus of the Russian Federation's “hybrid policy” towards Ukraine and countries of the former Soviet Union, member-countries and countries-partners of the European Union and NATO, and other Western countries? And in general, how can be defined the concept (category) of “hybrid policy”?
At the same time, none of the analyzed works provides the fundamental definition of the concept of “hybrid policy”, or an assessment of this phenomenon, the derivatives of which are “hybrid war” and “hybrid peace”. In this context, these studies are considered not quite complete.

That is why, in their studies, experts of “Borysfen Intel” have concentrated the main attention on the structural-functional integrity of the complex system of the following socio-political factors (aspects): “politics”, “war”, “peace”, “security”, “threats” “enemy”, “ally”, etc. and information connection between them. That is, we have used a systematic-structural approach to consistency and focus, as well as elements of cognitive modeling in estimating interrelations of practical activities of the Russian Federation within the framework of its policy of recent decades towards the European Union, NATO and the USA, as well as towards post-Soviet countries immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union and their proclamation of independence.

Based on the results of the work there has been defined the concept of “hybrid policy,” and has been stated that this is a geopolitical category. In this connection, it has been concluded that in geopolitical plans and projects of the Russian Federation today increasingly dominates its national geopolitics and somewhat modified rule of force. That is, today's Russia's geostrategy is aimed first of all at observing only its national interests.
In other materials of the special issue, experts of the “Borysfen Intel” on the example of the Russian annexation of the Crimea and military aggression in the East of Ukraine, share the results of researches on the characteristics of the phenomenon of “hybrid war” and “hybrid peace”: their strategies, new technologies and mechanisms for the preparation and conduct (including informational, economic and energy), analyze a number of options of Russia's hidden (“hybrid”) aggression against Ukraine, etc.

The Independent Analytical Centre for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel” does not claim to ultimate perfection of the research on a particular subject and is ready for a fruitful discussion, including on our website or in the “round table” on this and other topical questions of the development of Ukraine's geopolitics.

 

1. Today's Russia's “Hybrid Policy” as a Strategy for the Implementation of Its National Geopolitics

Yuriy Radkovets

War-Politics Ratio.

We all know the famous popular quotations of the famous Prussian General and military theorist, reformer and historian Carl von Clausewitz: “War is the continuation of policy by other means” and “The military must submit to politicians”. Although the General as the Commander did not show himself special, but he became famous for his unfinished work “On War” (“Vom Kriege” — in German), devoted to questions of the theory of war. His theories of strategy, tactics and philosophy of war significantly affected the development of military thought in the West, and up to now have been taught in military academies and are widely used in the management of enterprises and in the marketing business included.

He is also echoed by the definitions of the well-known American Military Commander, a Four-Star General William Westmoreland: “Wars are started by politicians and ended by soldiers”, or in another interpretation: “The military don't start wars. Politicians start wars”. This military was directly involved in World War II, Korean Wars, he commanded the units and formations of the Airborne Forces, headed the prestigious Military School of West Point, he was the commander of the whole US military contingent in South Vietnam (1964-1968). During the Vietnam War — the main event in his life, — he was the Chief of Staff of the US Army (1968-1972) — one of the highest military posts in the Armed Forces of the United States. In all positions and at all times he had to make responsible decisions and to solve complex problems. Up to now, his military experience and practice are subject to studying by military specialists all over the world.

 

2. Features of Technologies of “Hybrid War” in Russia's Aggressive Actions Against Ukraine

Yuriy Radkovets

The article deals with the essence and content of the concept “hybrid war”, characteristic features of technologies of its use in the process of Russia's aggressive actions during the annexation of the Crimea and the military conflict in the Donbas. It reveals the meaning and importance of the information component in the circumstances of “hybrid wars”. We consider common approaches to developing measures to counteract “hybrid threats”.

As the mankind progressively develops, war and armed conflicts also evolve, their meaning, character and features change, new forms and ways of leading them appear. At the same time the mentality of direct participants of armed conflicts and of the population of conflicting parties also changes. After the end of the “cold war”, the USSR's disappearing from the political arena, and the completion of formation of the unipolar world, a threat of a new world war has somewhat subsided, but the world has not become more stable and predictable. The beginning of the 21st century was marked by emergence in some regions of the world of new local wars and military conflicts.

3. Strategy and Tactics of Hybrid Wars in the Context of Russia's Military Aggression against Ukraine

Editorial Article

Resonant events in the world in recent years, in particular, the revolutionary change of government and armed conflicts in countries of North Africa, the Middle East and the former Soviet Union confirm the appearance of new forms and methods to which the leading states resort in an attempt to achieve their foreign policy goals and to resolve interstate conflicts.

Thus, instead of classic military aggressions with the use of armed force there come the so-called “hybrid wars”. With their hidden nature, they are observed mainly in the political, economic, informational, and special spheres. For resolving specific tasks are involved small numbers of troops. The essence of this approach is to shift the center of efforts from physical destruction of the enemy within a large-scale war, to the use of means of “soft power” against the country of the enemy aiming at disintegration and change of its leadership, and including it into the sphere of (the aggressor country's) influence...

 

4. “Hybrid Peace” for Ukraine: Options of Russia's Hidden Aggression

Editorial Article

Lately, the vast majority of both Western and Ukrainian politicians and experts, on the basis of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, have been trying to answer one question: what should Ukraine expect from Putin in the future, and how will the West react to it?

oday we can say with confidence that the requirements of the Minsk agreements (within the framework of “Minsk-2”, of February 12, 2015) the Russian side openly ignores, in every way delaying the process of their implementation — changes the composition of the negotiating parties, breaks meetings of the contact and working groups, suddenly declares new offensives.

The clear and consistent position of Ukraine, which closely follows the Minsk agreements, irritates Putin, forcing him to resort to bluff — that is to use, above all, constant “horror stories” about possible new offensives of his puppets in the Donbas, which should divert attention from Russia's not fulfilling the promised...

5. “Hybrid Peace-2” for Ukraine: neither War, nor Peace

Editorial Article

The development of recent events surrounding the Russian Federation's armed aggression against Ukraine, suggests that the qualitatively new situation that has arisen today in the east of our country is characterized by a certain “dynamic equilibrium” of the opposing forces.

Thus, V. Putin's regime in its attitude to Ukraine sticks to its strategic goals and resource- technical capabilities to implement them by scaling up the military invasion of the Russian-Ukrainian separatist forces deep into the Ukrainian territory.

At the same time, the threat of increased use against Russian of the USA and EU's increased political and economic sanctions, strengthening of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and growth of their defense capabilities in the conflict zone, as well as Ukraine's determination and readiness to defend its national interests, in a certain way restrain Russia from large-scale activating of fighting in the Donbas...

6. “Hybrid Information War”: “Recipients” of Information and Psychological Brainwashing

Editorial Article

The analysis of the Kremlin's actions once again confirms the idea that alongside with the military aggression, the information war is one of the main means of implementation of V. Putin's imperial plans. The in-depth monitoring of information “products” of the Kremlin propaganda machine makes it possible to identify a number of messages which Moscow is trying to impose on three major “recipients” of information-psychological treatment — the European Community, the Russian society and some of the Ukrainian citizens.

Since the beginning of 2015 the triple task of the cynical and large-scale information-propaganda work of Russian authorities and the media has been focused on: discrediting the Ukrainian authorities/ security forces and obstruction of the fourth wave of mobilization; provoking anti-government protests in the population because of the “humanitarian catastrophe” in the East of Ukraine, as well as support for separatist forces (movements) in some regions of our country...

7. “Hybrid Information War”-2: the Television-Propaganda Aspect

Editorial Article

As part of the new heading “Information Security” the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen-Intel” offers a closer look at the features of the functioning of instruments of Russian television and its transformation according to the tasks of today's massive information campaign directed against Western countries and Ukraine, as well as to the domestic Russian audience.
The functioning of the information field in Russia today — is, at first glance, a rather chaotic, but at the same time, an interesting and purposeful process, developing on an upward curve and is now at the very top of it. In fact — at apogee.

The range of Russia's tools in the information-propaganda field is wide enough and today includes: television, radio, print media, books, movies and, of course, electronic media (Internet, social networks, chat rooms, blogs, and so and so forth). And this is far from a complete list...