The main intrigue in the development of the situation around the armed conflict in the East of Ukraine is the Russian Federation's unexpected consent to the deployment of an international peacekeeping mission in the zone of the military confrontation. At first glance, this is a concession from Moscow, which previously held a diametrically opposite position and was categorically against the access of international peacekeepers to the Donbas. Indeed, a deployment of a peacekeeping mission in the Donbas will in fact make it impossible to expand the scale of Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine, which remains the main threat to the security of our State.
Of course, this is beneficial to Ukraine. However, not everything is so simple as it seems at first glance. As Hetman Polubotok once said: “Never, under any circumstances, believe Moskal! Believing him alone will ruin Ukraine. Moskal will certainly outwit, deceive, and enslave. That is his life, his essence. He is strong with that — cunningness and ruthlessness. Along all our borders should stand iron polls with a sign “Do Not Believe Moskal!”.
This is precisely the nature of Moscow's agreeing to a deployment of international peacekeepers in the Donbas, which pursues the goal of realizing exclusively Russian interests. First of all, this concerns the “freezing” of the conflict in the region on terms favorable for Russia, namely: creation of an impression of Moscow's implementing the Minsk Agreements with regard to the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories, while preventing Ukraine from regaining control over them.
If this plan is implemented, Russia will have the opportunity to appeal to the USA and the EU about the absence of reasons for continuing sanctions against it. At the same time, it will be able to justify its demands that Ukraine fulfill the political component of the peace plan relating to the granting a special statuses to the “DPR” and “LPR”. At this, Russia's condition about the need to coordinate the issue of the deployment of a peacekeeping mission with self-proclaimed republics actually positions them as equal participants in the negotiations.
Moreover, inclusion of Russian military contingent in the international peacekeeping mission, on which Moscow will undoubtedly insist, legalizes Russia's military presence on the territory of Ukraine and will create prerequisites for its remaining there for a long term. This is exactly what Russia did in Trans-Dniester long ago.
All this will lead to the actual disintegration of Ukraine, the loss of the possibility of restoring its territorial integrity, blocking of the processes of European and Euro-Atlantic integration of our State, as well as to Russia's obtaining powerful levers of influence on Ukraine. In turn, Russia as a “peacekeeper” will restore relations with the West, will have favorable opportunities for the development of its economy and will continue to actively implement its neo-imperial policy. At the same time, due to the demands to limit the functions of the peacekeeping mission only to the protection of OSCE observers, Russia will have the opportunity not to incur obligations to ensure general security in the region.
Taking into consideration all this, Ukraine's position is fundamentally right as it provides for: deployment of UN peacekeeping forces in all areas in the conflict zone, including on the Russian-Ukrainian border; withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories and prevention of their inclusion of Russian military units in the peacekeeping forces; placing on the UN peacekeeping mission the functions of ensuring general security, and not only of OSCE observers; inadmissibility of any coordination of these issues with the self-proclaimed republics as negotiating parties.
However, the change in Russia's position on the possibility of deploying an international peacekeeping mission in the Donbas is already an indicator of the effectiveness of Western sanctions that force V. Putin's regime to look for ways out of the situation. Maintaining and further strengthening of such sanctions step by step will force Moscow to make real concessions in the settlement of the situation around Ukraine.
