On the 13th of March we put on our web site information, called “Rubber” Red Line”, which dealt with the fact that as the US President Barack Obama’s visit to the Middle East (20-22 March) was coming nearer, the tension was growing over the “Red Line” which kept going away and approaching. If earlier both, American and Israeli Intelligence officers and analysts had been stating that Iran would not have nuclear weapons before 2015, later this term was reduced to the end of 2014, and a little bit later it came down to 4-6 months of this year!
Exactly this was declared by Israeli Intelligence men in their interview to “The Times of Israel”, in which they stated that it was not the matter of war, but of “only one night operation”. Both, the US and Israel must hurry up to be able to stop Tehran in time.
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Netanyahu Missed the Red Line. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been speaking for a long time about the need to draw a "red line" for Iran's nuclear program, decided to demonstrate his idea clearly on Thursday http://wordyou.ru/ |
Iran has not crossed the determined by Israel “red line” in its nuclear program yet, but is approaching it closer, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in his Appeal, which was broadcast at the meeting of the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee. The Prime Minister of Israel also pointed out that sanctions against Iran will not have the desired effect, and to stop Tehran's nuclear program a “serious military threat” is needed.
At last a long awaited and so welcome visit took place. And what happened? Nothing of what analysts had been forecasting, and what everyone had expected from the meeting, happened.
At the talks the Israeli Prime Minister assured the President of the United States of eternal friendship and willingness to support Washington under any circumstances. Barack Obama, recently considering Israel too heavy a burden for the current US policy in the Middle East, in his turn, assured the Israelis in his friendship and continued support in all endeavors. Then it was time to discuss one of the most critical for Washington and Tel Aviv questions - “What should we do about Iran?”
According to media reports, Obama said that Iran had not come up to the “red line” yet, but that as soon as that happens, the USA will support any decision of Israel without delay. Netanyahu, in his turn, acknowledged that he somehow was too early with his statement of the possibility of Iran having nuclear weapon in the spring and summer of this year, and extended this period for at least a year. And that was it! This topic was not discussed again. The "Red line" has come to move again!
In mid-March, the Director of the US National Intelligence James Clapper, Jr., presented to the Commission of the US Congress an annual report of the Intelligence Community with the analysis and estimations of threats and challenges to the security of the United States. Characteristics of the threats from the Islamic Republic of Iran, are so restrained and vague that they can hardly be called threats. This sooner resembles a frank desire to blur the image of the enemy, which some circles for the past several years have been trying to impose on the world community.
The report specifies, “We do not know whether Iran will eventually decide to begin creating nuclear weapon”. That is, according to US Special Services’ estimations, there is no military component in Iran's nuclear program. Moreover, “we believe that Iran does not produce weapons-grade uranium, and is unable to carry out these works in such a way that they have not been found out”. This conclusion negates concerns of IAEA inspectors about some secret works at very secret objects of Iran. Here's what coming from Iran nuclear threat looks like in the US Intelligence Community’s estimates!
US Intelligence staff acknowledge that the Iranian Government does not want to sharpen the conflict, and the intention to create nuclear weapons does not exist even at the level of a political decision. Let us recall the Statement of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the eve of the Iran's representatives meeting with the Group "5 +1", that Iran will not be creating nuclear weapons! It should also be noted, that between the US Intelligence Community, the Pentagon and the current White House Administration, there is mutual understanding, and the submitted to the Congress report both, as a whole and in its "Iranian " part, of course, had been agreed with the Administration. It could not have been otherwise.
According to analysts, the idea of the common approach is as follows:
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Firstly, in the period of "Hormuz Crisis" (December 2011), it became obvious that the United States abandoned the forceful solution of the "Iranian problem", and the statements that suggested otherwise, were nothing else but a psychological pressure on Tehran and international Community.
Secondly, to solve its strategic task on Iran, the White House had chosen the tactics of "crippling sanctions" and "expansion of the regime from within" by forming a fifth column in the Iranian political elite and the united front of opposition to the current Iranian leadership at all levels of the society, relying on a radical change of policy of Iran after the Presidential elections scheduled for June of this year.
Thirdly, a year ago, the then Chief of the Pentagon gave a clear and undoubtful message to all allies of the USA in the region (Israel and Saudi Arabia included), that any military action against Iran is only possible with the full approval and agreement of the United States. No other way!
Thus, the question of a USA’s military operation against Iran in the nearest future does not exist, and the issue of the Iranian nuclear threat is not being seriously considered by Washington any longer. Military professionals are well aware that a direct confrontation with the Islamic Republic of Iran in the current situation will turn for Israel, and for all America's allies in the region, into a disaster, and that today much more dangerous than Iran's nuclear program to Tel Aviv are the being formed union of "al Qaeda" with HAMAS, turning of Syria’s border areas into "wild lands", and a new round of conflict in Southern Lebanon.
What about Iran? It can be assumed that the nuclear weapons Iran could have, it needs as a factor of deterring. Strange as it might seem, but what if the presence of the weapons calms down the region rather than sharpens the situation?
Time will tell.
