In the context of Russian-Ukrainian contradictions, which are becoming more and more urgent, a special weighty place is occupied by a number of important unsolved problems, connected with the Russia’s Black Sea Fleet’s being based at the Ukrainian territory. Despite the signing of so called “Kharkiv Agreements”, the mentioned above problems not only remain unregulated to the end, but are getting more complicated in the course of the development of the process of Ukraine’s European integration. The reason for this is the position of Russia, which actually refuses to constrictively cooperate with Ukraine in solving the mentioned above problems and pursues exclusively its own goals in the political, military and economy spheres, which do not coincide with our state’s interests.
Ratification in the smoke!
TRC "Rosіya", April 2010: "The Russian Black Sea Fleet will stay at the territory of UKraine at least til 2042. The parleaments of both countries- Verkhovna Rada and State Duma — have approved of the agreements achieved by both the countries' presidents last week. In the power House of the Russian Parliament the discussion was busy and quite quiet, while Ukrainian parliamentarians will most likely remember this day — voting in Rada looked like football havoc." Source http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVQNoujBKYU
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| History of the RF's Navy at the Ukrainian Territory of the Black Sea. Source http://mapax.ru/question/61 |
In particular, the main political goals of the Russian Federation concerning the dislocation of the Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea in the long term future is keeping Ukraine in the sphere of Russian influence, as well as ensuring preconditions for realization of the territorial claims of Russia as to the Crimean peninsula.
Thus, Russia’s military presence at the territory of Ukraine actually puts our state at the same side with Russia in its confronting the USA and NATO. In its turn, this rules out the possibility of Ukraine’s returning to the way to our country’s Euro-Atlantic integration, and brings in additional problems into Ukraine’s relations with the EU countries (taking into consideration the most of European countries’ simultaneous membership of both, NATO and EU).
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Basing of units and subunits of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. Source http://www.tipologic.narod.ru/doc_carta_balt_flot.htm |
Besides, despite the Ukrainian-Russian agreements on non-participation of the Black Sea Fleet in political processes in the Autonomy Republic of the Crimea and in Ukraine, the commandment of the BSN continue its active support to the activity of pro-Russian organizations in the Crimea. Thus, at the printing-house of the Black Sea Fleet “Motherland’s Banner”, actually for free they print newspapers of the mentioned above organizations, like “Rusichi”, “Russian Community of Sevastopol”, “Russian Sevastopol”, “Russian Crimea”, “Fatherland”, etc. At the same time, through their own mass media of the Black Sea Fleet, subunits of psychological struggle of the BSN actively support and push forward the pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western ideology among the population of the Crimea peninsula. All this creates favoring preconditions for the activity in the Crimea of the bluntly anti-Ukrainian movements, including the “Russian Unity” party, Cossack’s Brotherhood “Unity” and the “The Essence of the Time” organization.
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| Warships of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea. Source http://informacia.ru/zagranica/3/87-news.html |
From the military point of view, the dislocation of the RF’s BSN in the Crimea is the most favorable for the Russian Federation due to the strategic location of the peninsula in the center of the Black Sea. All the mentioned above creates the best conditions for actions of the striking components of the RF’s Black Sea Fleet‘s forces against the countries-Russia’s opponents from NATO (Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria), as well as for blocking Black Sea straights. While Russia’s fighting using its Black Sea Fleet from the territory of Ukraine actually allows Russia to “involve” Ukraine (at its side) into confrontation with the USA and NATO, and in case of an armed conflict between the RF and the West it will allow Russia to move its fighting actions from its own territory to the territory of Ukraine.
The mentioned above problem is becoming especially urgent for Ukraine in the situation of the activation of Russia’s measures for demonstration of force before the USA and NATO with involving the RF’s Black Sea Fleet. In particular, since 2009-2010, there have been organized systematical marches of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet of Russia to the Mediterranean Sea, which got especially activated in 2012 when the situation in Syria began sharpening.
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March Russian Navy. December 2012. Source http://www.itar-tass.com/g65/3429.html |
Besides, the forces and means of the BSN of the RF (subunits of marinas, helicopters, aircrafts and fighting ships) have been taking part in armed conflicts at the Caucasus, such as: Georgia-Abkhazia conflict of 1992-1993; anti-terrorist operations against the Islamic extremists in Chechnya in 1994-1996 and in 1999-2000; in other republics of the Northern Caucasus over the last 10 years; Russia-Georgia conflict in 2008.
All this creates an immediate threat to the national interests and security of Ukraine. First of all, the mentioned above concerns the real danger of diversionary-terrorist actions of Islamic extremists against the staff and objects of the RF’s BSN in the Crimea, which may be directed also against the staff and objects of the Navy of Ukraine, and may injure the civil population and damage the infrastructure of the Crimea peninsula. As a matter of fact, this threat is admitted by the commandment of the Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which conducts regular anti-terrorist trainings.
At the same time, in case of a conflict between Russia and the USA and NATO, the objects of the RF’ s BSN in the Crimea will inevitably become targets for missile-bomb strikes from Russia’s opponents. Taking into consideration their dislocation in Sevastopol, it will have catastrophic consequences for the city. Besides, if it comes to the need of dispersion of the Navy forces in the Crimea in a time of threat, and its logistic supplying through the territory of Ukraine, fighting actions will actually be spread all over the Crimea peninsula. Despite the hypothetical character of such a scenario, it obviously is taken into consideration in the military plans of Russia.
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| Fighting Strength of the Ukrainian Navy. Source http://www.blueenot.ru/?selectednews=1357 |
But even without armed conflicts, the very presence of the RF’s BSN at the territory of Ukraine creates a number of potential and real threats to security of Ukraine, which, particularly, include: presence in the staff of the RF’s BSN in the Crimea of subunits and representatives of the Russian special services, that can work against Ukraine; keeping a considerable number of outdated ammunition at the depots of the Russian BSN, which increases the danger of their explosion (as it regularly happens at other Russian ammunition depots); absence of ability for controlling the transference, storing, using the arms and ammunition of the BSN of the Russian Federation by the competent bodies of Ukraine, which creates a threat of their illegal outflow; uncontrolled movement of the military transport and equipment of the RF’s Black Sea Fleet about the territory of the Crimea, which raises the threat of incidents on the roads, which cannot be prevented by the Ukrainian State Traffic Inspectorate (STI).
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"Bora" Missile Air-Cushion Ship. Source http://flot.sevastopol.info |
Apart from this, the strengthening of the RF’s Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea, its rearming with new types of arms and military equipment, as well as activation of measures of operative and fighting training and demonstration of force events are accepted by Black Sea countries as threat to their security, which is associated with Ukraine too. Considering the mentioned above countries being members of NATO and EU, all this actually creates preconditions for negative comprehension of Ukraine by both, the EU and NATO. In a similar way it concerns also the USA, which have their own interests in the Black Sea region.
Against this background, another threat to Ukraine creates the real danger of the participation of the BSN of the RF in measures of force pressure of Russia on Ukraine, as the last means for realization of the Russian goals as to Ukraine. According to Russian experts (the publicized by the official mass media and, particularly, by INTERFAX agency), possible reasons for Russia’s using military force against Ukraine can be Ukraine’s restarting its course to joining NATO, and Ukraine’s demanding to remove the Black Sea Fleet of the RF from the Crimea. At this the BSN of the RF is openly determined as the vanguard unit of the Russian Armed Forces at the territory of Ukraine. Actually, such a situation had already took place in 1993-1994, when the commandment of the Black Sea Fleet was actively supporting the Crimean separatists, which had nearly led to an armed conflict in the peninsula.
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The Main Bay of Sevestopol with Ships of the RF BSF and Ukraine's Navy. Source http://www.blackseanews.net/read/27015 |
In the economic aspect the main aim of Russia’s measures for keeping the BSN in the Crimea is creation of obstacles in the development of civil (commercial) port abilities of Sevastopol, which in the future may turn into a leading transport-transit center in the South of Ukraine. This ability is given by the unique physical-geographical conditions of the bays of Sevastopol - the best ones in the whole Black Sea, they attract constant attention of both, Ukrainian, and western investors (from the USA and EU countries included).
The mentioned above abilities of Sevastopol create a competition to Russia’s own plans of building large scale port-terminal complex at its Sea of Azov and Black Sea coasts, which aim at Russia’s taking over the main cargo-transporting streams in the Black Sea region. Thus, simultaneously with blocking Sevastopol’s development over the last years, measures have been taken for increasing the transit capabilities of the port of Novorossiysk, construction of a new oil and oil-chemical terminals, and of a new point of reloading grain (with the power up to 5 million tons) included.
Besides, another port junction in the Taman peninsula has been founded, which includes two new ports, including the “Taman” port for transfer of products of oil chemistry with total power of about 45 million tons per year, as well as port “Kuban” for reloading dry cargo with the total power of 30-35 million tons a year (in the future it is supposed to be able to cope with 70-89 million tons a year).
The realization of the mentioned above projects has already allowed Russia to reorient the transit of ammoniac products from the Ukrainian port of Odesa to the Russian port of Taman, and to frustrate Ukraine’s plans of constructing a coal terminal in the port of Sevastopol. The latter question was strategically important for both, Ukraine and Russia – from the point of view of activation of measures of European countries and Turkey for transfer from Russian gas to alternative energy carriers, particularly, to coal.
Taking into consideration Moscow’s interests in the energy sphere, and personal interests of the Russian oligarch circles in the transport-transit sphere, the mentioned above circumstances actually leave no room for basing the Black Sea Fleet of the RF at the Caucasus coast of Russia. In fact, this is openly admitted by both, the central power of the Russian Federation, and by the leaders of Krasnodar region of the RG, which includes Novorossiysk and Taman peninsula.
Besides, equipping new places for basing the Black Sea Fleet of the RF at the Black Sea coast of Russia needs considerable financial expanses, which, of course, does not suit Russia’s side. In particular, according to the information of the Russian magazine “Sea Collection”, construction of just one protective dam of a BSN base in Novorossiysk needs about 2 billion US dollars.
A similar situation is in the ship repairing branch of the Black Sea Fleet. Despite all the expectations of Sevastopol’s community on realization of the abilities of “Kharkiv Agreements”, Russia not only did not widen using the ship-repairing capabilities of the Black Sea Fleet for repairing and maintaining the ships of the Black Sea Fleet, but on the contrary, it reduced them.
Thus, they do all ship-repair works at Russian industries, and even those of other countries (Bulgaria, for one, where they repair large landing ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the RF). As a result, a substantial staff reduction of ship-repair yards in Sevastopol is being planned, and it will negatively effect the social-economic situation in the city.
And, finally, what has already become a widely known problem - Russia not only did not lower the gas price for Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine’s agreement to prolong the RF BSN‘s staying in the Crimea, but on the contrary, it keeps raising gas prices for our state, which at the moment are the highest in Europe and in the world.
"Registration" of the RF Black Sea Fleet in Exchange for Gas
Channel "TVC", 22nd April 2010. "Russia is ready to cancel customs tariffs for Ukraine. Such a declaration was made by Vladimir Putin. According to the Prime Minister, Kiev will have a 30 % discount on gas."
Though, as the experience shows, economic problems of the RF BSN’s presence at the territory of Ukraine are not only such-like “global” questions, but include lots of “tiny” aspects. In particular, this regards the following facts: commercial usage by Russian side of the objects and land plots of the ex-Black Sea Fleet of the USSR, on which they took lease from Ukraine; misappropriation of the moorage fund, which had to be passed over to Ukraine, according to official agreements (at the moment about 40 moorages); Russia’s refusal to pass over to Ukraine hydro-technical means for equipping the coasts of the Black and Azov Seas; cases of fuel and food smuggle through the border between Ukraine and Russia.
The mentioned above problems are obvious and undoubtedly are understood by Russia. Considering this, to substantiate the “necessity” of prolonging basing of the BSN of the RF at the Ukrainian territory, Russia is actively pushing forward a myth about the significant role of the BSN of the RF “as of a “guarantor of Ukraine’s security”. At that they purposefully keep silent about the total non-concurrence of threats to national security of Russia and Ukraine, as well as about the BSN‘s being incapable to ensure not only Ukraine’s security, but security of Russia itself.
Large scale training of the Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea.
For destroying of the conditiona opponent, as servicemen say, every strength and means are used- even a duel — an encounter battle (meeting engagement).
In fact, the main Russia’s opponents traditionally are Western countries, while European integration is the main goal of Ukraine’s foreign policy, which actually puts Ukraine and Russia at different sides of the security space.
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| Launching of an antimissile of the second generation Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IB of the AAD Aegis from an Amrican Navy's ship "Lake Erie". Source http://www.newsru.com/world/27jun2012/aegis.html |
But, even in case of Ukraine’s joining Russia’s security side, the Black Sea Fleet of the RF by no means will be able to ensure security of our country. Thus, the number of real battle group of ships of the BSN of the RF, which can go to sea at all (one missile cruiser, two escort ships, three to four large landing ships, one or two small destroyers and two or three missile ships and motor torpedo boats) - it is above comparison with the battle ships of the USA and NATO in the Black Sea - Mediterranean Sea regions (not fewer than two aircraft-carrying and two helicopter- landing groups, two-three nuclear submarines, ten to fifteen cruisers and destroyers with controlled missile weapon, as well as five or six anti-missile “Aegis” destroyers, which makes a total of up to 30 to 40 battleships).
In the whole, the mentioned above facts allow to make some principle generations and conclusions.
The presence of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet at the Ukrainian territory is one of the main means of the Russian Federation of political pressure on Ukraine and limiting its independence and sovereignty, as well as an instrument for realization Russia’s territorial claims regarding Sevastopol and Crimea.
Keeping the Black Sea Fleet of the RF in the Crimea creates both, direct and indirect risks and challenges for Ukraine’s security, that first of all concern the RF BSN‘s participation in involving Ukraine into the confrontation between Russia and the USA and NATO, and also possibilities of the RF BSN being used as a vanguard unit of the force actions of the Russian federation against our state.
Dislocation of the RF Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean Peninsula causes greater losses to economy of Sevastopol, Crimea and Ukraine (putting obstacles in the way of the development of commercial port capabilities of Sevastopol), than brings income from all sides of the BSN ‘s being based in the Crimea.
The mentioned above aspects are the main problems in the development of relations between Ukraine and Russia in the part, concerning the RF Black Sea Fleet being based at the territory of Ukraine.
In this regard the most important for solving the mentioned problems will be the following:
- exact and simple Russia’s giving up any forms of involving the RF BSN in political activity in the Crimea, including its stopping giving a support to pro-Russian organizations of the Autonomous Republic of the Crimea, representatives of the RF BSN’s commandment’ abstention from public declarations and estimations, the RF BSN’s non-participation in the activity of Russian politicians and political forces in the Crimea;
- Russia’s clear juridical guarantees, in international organizations (UN and OSCE) included, of the Black Sea Fleet’s non-interference into the domestic situation in the Crimea and Ukraine;
- Prevention of uncontrolled actions of Russia at the territory of Ukraine and from the Ukrainian territory (rearming the Navy, bringing in and taking out weapon and ammunition, Russian ships’ entering Ukrainian territorial waters and leaving them, movement of road transport and combat equipment of the BSN about the territory of the Crimea included);
- Giving up the practice of un-purposeful usage of the objects of the RF BSN, returning to Ukraine those objects of the Navy which are not used any more, returning to Ukraine the objects of hydro-engineering maintenance of the Black and Azov Seas.
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| Fighting Strength of the Ukrainian Navy. Source http://ru.wikipedia.org |
It is a pity, but as the experience of the process of talks between Ukraine and Russia shows, the Russian side actually refuses to solve problematical questions concerning the RF BSN with Ukraine, it prolongs the talks at different excuses, trying to gain one-sided preferences in its favor. At this, to reach its goals, Russia widely uses the non-perfection of the existing basis of the talks as to the conditions of the RF BSN’s staying at the Ukrainian territory.
In particular, another in turn step on this way is Russia’s refusal to make it a must for the military subunits, organizations and industries of the RF BSN in the Crimea to pay taxes. At this, in a certain note of the Foreign Ministry of Russia, there are open threats to Ukraine to organize a “trade war” of the Customs Union countries against Ukraine in case if Ukraine tries to have those taxes paid. By this Russia actually demonstrates its disdainful attitude to Ukraine in general, and to the inhabitants of the Crimea and Sevastopol in particular, despite all statements of the Russian side about defending their interests.
So, due to its own ambitions, Russia in fact is undermining all possibilities of normal solving the problems of the RF BSN’s being based at the territory of Ukraine, which eventually will have a negative effect for the Russian Federation itself.
At this, taking into consideration Ukraine’s being unable to really prevent the combat activity of the Black Sea Fleet of Russia from its territory, Ukraine has to clearly position its having nothing to do with such actions of the Russian side and to officially declare about this.
Taking into consideration all the mentioned above, dislocation of the RF BSN at the Ukrainian territory is one of the main threats to national security of Ukraine. The events of 1993-1994 testify to this, as they nearly led to an armed conflict in the Crimea, like ones in Trans-Dniester, Abkhazia, Southern Ossetia, Nagorny Karabakh and Tajikistan. All this should be known and remembered.
