The attempts of Teheran to take up the duties of an active mediator in the regulation of the situation in Syria, to some extant unbalance the plans of Washington, which, itself is trying to remain a high-power force in the Middle East and not to lose its positions. That is why the USA
tried to get other countries involved in this conflict in order to reach their goal with the help of their allies. Thus, Washington thinks that Ankara can play an important role in overthrowing Asad’s regime. But Turkey did not expect that this American offer will put it on the brink of a precipice. Having accepted over 90 thousand Syrian refugees, Ankara to some extant destabilized its domestic situation, having at the same time activated its inner opposition.
The struggle for power in Syria between the Alaviite minority (a branch of Shiite orientation which is being actively supported by Iran) and Suniite majority(backed by “Muslim Fraternity" and al-Qaeda) is to Iran on the one hand- a uniting motive, as it means defending Islamic interests in the region from the USA and their allies' interference in these matters; and on the other hand- an opportunity to increase their influence in the region. In case of successful regulation of the Syrian question, Iran, perhaps will be able to considerably widen its influence as far as to the Mediterranean Sea coast. It also can cause certain tension in the North of Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Certainly, the USA will have to make a choice- either to side with Er-Riyadh in order to defend the oil and gas transport ways from the zone of Persian Gulf( which, in its turn, may lead to certain complications in the relations between the USA and IRI); or to agree to the regional leadership of Iran, which Washington is not eager to do.
On the other side, if the attempts of Iran are neutralized, the USA reserves its right to continue dictating their will in the region. Indeed, removing Teheran from Syria will give Washington a chance to return it into the rank of its strategic partner and to increase its pressure on Iraq, as in this case Iran will not be able to support Iraqi Shiites openly. Iran will also start suffering from the introduction of new economic sanctions, which will lead to considerable worsening of IRI’s
Economical situation and will put it on the brink of a precipice of an economic crisis, when it will completely lose a chance to become a regional leader.
As we remember, in October 2012 the UE countries’ governments supported Germany and Great Britain’s offer to introduce additional sanctions against Iranian banking, transport and industrial sectors of economy and to make Teheran begin talks about cutting its nuclear programs. These are the most rigid sanctions having ever been used against Iran lately , as they have a wide specter of influence, unlike the previous sanctions, used only against concrete Iranian companies and citizens.
The Ghadir class submarine
and the Zubr class air-cushioned landing craft
The inner situation in Iran itself remains stable. On the 27th of November 2012 Iran solemnly celebrated the Day of Naval Forces of IRI. At the Iran's main NF base in Bandar-Abbas, there was a ceremony of launching two small class submarines of “Ghadir” project, two landing air-cushion vehicles of the “Zubr” type and a missile boat of the “Sina-7” class. The IRI NF Commander, Rear-Admiral
H. Sayeri announced about the creation of a submariners training center, the main element of which is a simulator of a “Ghadir” submarine.
The fact itself of launching two submarines of a small class for such a numerous NF as the Iranian NF, is not that important. But we should not forget that that those submarines, missile boats and landing boats were designed and built by Iranian specialists at the shipyards of Bandar- Abbas. Not longer than a few years ago, it was considered impossible due to Iran’s engineering and technological lagging behind, for many years living in the situation of economic sanctions.
The RQ-170 Sentinel unmanned aeriel vehicle (UAV)
Iran also continues to actively develop new types of AA and intelligence equipment, in particular- unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Thus, on the 30th of October 2012 The Commander of the “Hatem al- Anbia” AA base , brigadier-general Farzad Esmaili informed a journalist from the ISNA Information agency , that in September of 2013 they are going to test a new UAV, capable of carrying on board some reconnaissance equipment and arms. By the way, the development of a new type of UAV(of a so-called fighting platform) have been talked about for quite a long time now, but this is the first time they mentioned the possible beginning of the tests.
The Iranian specialists are thought to have just copied an American RQ-170 Sentinel UAV, which they managed to land undamaged on their territory as long back as in December 2011. Before that, in January of 2011, two American MQ-1 Predator UAVs were shot down in the region of the nuclear object of Fordo, near the town of Qom.
The MQ-1 Predator unmanned aeriel vehicle (UAV)
Apart from this, students of the Isfagan University developed and in October of 2012 conducted first flying tests of the new type of a purely reconnaissance UAV. The construction prominent feature of this vehicle is that it consists of four autonomous planes and a mother UAV. During a flight one plane from each side of the mother plane can separate and fly, carrying out tasks independently and sending the data both, to the mother UAV and to the control ground station respectively. If the mother UAV is out of order, mini-UAVs can continue fulfilling their tasks autonomously.
Growing of the fighting potential of the IRI NF, in the opinion of Rear-Admiral H. Sayeri, allows Iran to defend its interests not only in the Persian Gulf zone, but also to carry out fighting tasks concerning the security of navigation and fighting piracy in the region of Aden Gulf. By the way,
Presence of Iranian fighting ships of the 22nd IRI NF squadron, namely, the “Hark” helicopter carrier and “Admiral Nagdi “ destroyer, in the international waters, helps growing of the image of Iran as a country , actively struggling against terrorism and sea piracy.
Iran also continues to actively support Hezbollah, giving it a considerable help. Thus, The ISNA Iranian informational agency on the 28th October 2012 informed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the framework of the “Hussein Aub” operation passed over a few UAVs for reconnaissance flights above the territory of Israel. According to the IRI Minister of Defense
Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi, a UAV carried out a flight from the territory of Lebanon and managed to get to the region of the Nuclear power station in Dimon, at the territory of Israel before it was shot down by the Israeli AF. At this, the UAV had been photographing the territory above which it had been flying passing over the data to a ground control station. As Vahidi pointed out, the UAV's flight was invisible for the Israeli and American radars. This is in fact, a “demonstration of force” by Iran. It is thought that after such a successful flight Hezbollah will start actively using UAVs against Israel, and that with a course of time they will be able to carry about not only the photography equipment...
The Fajr-5 artillery rocket
According to “The Sunday Times” report dated to the 25th of November 2012, an Israeli reconnaissance satellite had fixed loading of operative-tactical missiles of the “Fajr” type and the “Shahab-3”ballistic missiles on board of a transport ship , which, as the Israeli analytics suggest, will deliver them to Gaza Strip and Sudan, which will cause new problems for Israel.
The Shahab-3 medium-range
ballistic missile (MRBM) of Iran
On the eve of presidential elections in the USA, the media published information about the agreement between the USA and IRI to begin direct two-sided talks as to the Iranian nuclear program. Quite possibly these talks will never happen because in the past Iran kept promising to start them trying to gain time and to weaken the outer pressure; so there are no grounds to think that this time these talks will really begin. Even if the sides do sit down to the talks, about readiness for which the USA State Secretary Hillary Clinton spoke the other day, the result of them is unpredictable. As the analysis of of the events shows, Teheran, since 2004, in fact has been winning the diplomatic parity and is successfully dragging out time, not stopping the realization of its nuclear programs.
The accident, or rather an action of sabotage, at the plant of enriching the uranium in Fordo, which took place on the 17th of August this year, made Teheran delay getting 240 kilograms of enriched by 20% uranium till the spring of 2013. As a result, there are new conditions for holding another round of the planned for December of 2012 talks of MAGATE concerning the transparency of the Iranian nuclear program. At the same time, the higher authorities of Iran also got a pause and may not be afraid of the USA and Israel’s strikes on its nuclear objects, at least till the end of the summer of 2013.
It is groundless to think that Teheran is going to the talks with Washington under the pressure of the new economic sanctions, because it has developed counter-measures aiming at the introduction in the country of the developed by Iranian economists "economy of resistance”. By the way, as the analysis of the mentioned program shows, they have not developed anything new, because this program is nothing else but a version of the long and well known Chinese policy of “relying on one’s own capability”. But at this the IRI economy is gradually developing, which guarantees its stability.
According to reports of the Iranian media, over the period from March to September 2012 alone, Iran had exported goods and services, condensed gas included, worth 19 billion US dollars. Within the same period of time, Iran had imported goods worth the total sum of about 26.5 billion US dollars. The main importers of its goods are China, Southern Korea, Germany, Switzerland, Russia, India, Turkey and the UAE.
Thus, the shallow analysis of the events shows that the situation in the Middle East and in the zone of Persian Gulf remains quite complicated, conditioned mainly by the civil war in Syria, sharpening of the domestic situation in Turkey, possibility of Syria’s negative influence on how the affairs stand now in the northern regions of Saudi Arabia and growing of the inner struggle of the Iranian opposition on the eve of the presidential elections in Iran, which will take place in summer of 2013.
