Part 3. Features of the Development of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict and Its Impact on the Military-Political Situation in the World

3.1. Russian aggression against Ukraine and its features

In 2014, there were radical changes in the Ukrainian society, which had chosen the course of European and Euro-Atlantic integration, as well as of uniting the nation around a common national idea. On the other hand, the Russian Federation's strategic plans to revive its status as “a great world power” made the past year the most difficult period in the recent history of Ukraine. And now it is threatened by the loss of independence. And this threat came from the “brotherly” state, whose leadership has set itself the goal (and is consistently implementing it) to weaken and decentralize Ukraine, to derail its European course and, ultimately, to “return” Ukrainian territories under its control. On the stages of realization of its geopolitical goals, the Russian Federation (using new methods of “hybrid wars”) having annexed the territory of the Ukrainian Crimea, is trying to destabilize the situation in other regions of the country, carries out armed aggression against Ukraine in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and actively demonstrates military force to the United States and member countries of NATO.

Implementing its aggressive plans, Russia has used against Ukraine new methods of “hybrid wars” — mass information “brainwashing” of the Ukrainian population and Russian citizens; formation of a “fifth column” in the territory of Ukraine through promotion of Russian henchmen in government and law enforcement agencies; provoking social and economic crisis; throwing into Ukraine of saboteurs and mercenaries and creation of illegal armed formations; provoking riots in some Ukrainian regions and seizure of local authorities. At this, the preparatory phase (until mid-2013) included:

strengthening of Russian influence in Ukraine's leadership and with its help making favorable for Russia decisions;
carrying out large-scale events to discredit the leadership of Ukraine and its European and Euro-Atlantic course;
destabilization of the situation in Ukraine and deepening the split in the Ukrainian society into supporters of the West and supporters of Russia;
undermining the Ukrainian economy by folding trade and economic relations with the Russian Federation and using the energy factor as an instrument of pressure on Ukraine (within the framework of “gas wars” included);
consolidating the achievements of the Russian Federation in Ukraine and complete reorientation of our state to Russia by bribery and corruption of Ukrainian authorities (at the highest level included); infiltration of agents of Russian influence into governing bodies of Ukraine; weakening and demoralization of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies, primarily in the Crimea (heads of almost all law enforcement agencies of Ukraine in V. Yanukovych's times were Russian citizens); strengthening Russian presence in the Ukrainian economy; spreading ideas of joining Russian integration initiatives in exchange for loans and economic preferences; unfolding of large-scale pro-Russian movements in Ukraine and in its separate regions (primarily in the Crimean peninsula and in eastern and southern regions).

The consequence of this policy was the refusal of the leadership of Ukraine to sign an Association Agreement with the EU in November 2013 and re-orientation towards Russia and the Customs Union, which triggered the “Revolution of Dignity.”

At the same time, large-scale “zombieing” of both, the Russian society and the Ukrainian population with the ideas of “great-Russian” chauvinism, set the stage for the next phase of the “hybrid war” against Ukraine. At this, at the final stage, in order to achieve its goals, Russia took the following measures:

in preparation for the seizure of the Crimea and further disintegration of Ukraine (since the end of 2013):

unfolding a large-scale information campaign to discredit the “Revolution of Dignity” in Ukraine (as a “fascist coup”) and the new government of the state (as the “military junta”), as well as imposing the idea of “the need to protect the Russian-speaking population” on Ukrainian territory;
organization in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine of “self-defense groups” from among the locals and Russian citizens, including intelligence personnel, military servicemen of special forces, members of the Cossack and other paramilitary groups;
creation of groups of troops intended to invade the ARC and to show force near the borders of Ukraine under the guise of trainings and ensuring security of the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi in January-February 2014.

At this, Russia began active actions on the Ukrainian territory in the Crimea at the most opportune for itself moment. It was characterized by the weakening of the Ukrainian government because of the objective temporary absence of the president, prime minister and heads of security agencies (hiding in Russia), and demoralization of the personnel of the Ukrainian law enforcement bodies in the situation of revolutionary events in the state;

during the annexation of the Crimea (February-March 2014):

capture by Russian special services (“unknown persons”) of government buildings in Simferopol and removing from power the leadership of the ARC;
deployment in the Crimea of “self-defense groups” (“little green men”), who took control of the power structures of the peninsula and key facilities of its infrastructure, blocking the units of power structures of Ukraine in the ARC;
bringing Russian troops into the Crimea under the guise of military trainings and under the cover of relevant articles of the Agreement on the Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine;
“legalization” of the occupation of the Crimea through a “referendum” on the status of the Crimea, as well as adoption of relevant decisions by the Parliament and President of the Russian Federation on inclusion of the Crimea into Russia as a subject of the Russian Federation;
final liquidation of bodies of Ukrainian government in the Crimea, as well as ousting of Ukrainian troops from the Peninsula.

These Russia's actions resulted in annexation of the Crimea and “legalization of the reason” for its integration into the Russian Federation;

during the creation of “Novorossia” and unleashing the armed conflict in the east of Ukraine (from February 2014 to present):

destabilization of eastern and southern regions of Ukraine by organizing mass anti-government (“anti-Maydan”) protests, clashes with police and supporters of the unity of Ukraine, as well as seizure of administrative buildings;
implementation of the “Crimean” scenario in Donetsk and Luhansk regions by taking control of their territories, formation of “militias” from among representatives of Russian special services, criminalized elements, law enforcement agencies and local pro-Russian forces;
the Russian Federation's political and economic pressure on Ukraine, as well as increasing the RF Armed Forces groupings near the Ukrainian border;
Russia's comprehensive support to separatists, including financing their activities, training militants and providing them with weapons, military equipment and ammunition, as well as Russian regular troops' arrival on the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
discredit of Ukraine's military operation against Russian-terrorist groups and disintegration of the country, attempts to present the operation as “punitive operation against the country's own population”;
“legalization” of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR) through the “referendum and elections of local authorities”;
comprehensive efforts that seek to force the Ukrainian authorities to recognize the separatists as a “side of the negotiation process” and to start negotiations with them under Russia's terms.

The only guarantee of the security of the state is to create powerful armed forces, intelligence and other special services

However, Russia has not been able to fully achieve its goals in eastern Ukraine, and moreover, it turned out in an extremely difficult position. This became possible thanks to Ukraine's new leadership's timely measures to prevent the spread of mass unrest in other parts of the country, sharply increased patriotism of the Ukrainian nation, which realized the need to repel Russia's military aggression, and self-sacrifice of a large number of volunteer battalions, as well as the beginning of the process of revival of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Not all this had been foreseen by Russia, which had overestimated its strength and appeal of the “Russian idea” in Ukraine, which forced it to take actions for “freezing” of the conflict in the east of Ukraine. Ukraine's active counteraction, including the use of military force, has led to Russia's “hybrid war” against Ukraine getting transformed into an undeclared armed conflict between them involving the armed forces of the two sides. At this, despite the attempts to hide the participation of Russian regular troops in the conflict, this fact has been recognized by the overwhelming majority of the international community.

So, the development of the situation around Ukraine in the past year irrefutably proves that the only guarantee of the security of the state is to create powerful armed forces, intelligence and other special services that can prevent and neutralize external aggression in any of its manifestations. Besides, Ukraine's very important priority becomes the necessity of finding reliable and true allies, both bilaterally and through entry into the Western system of collective security.

3.2. The influence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the military-political situation in the world

During 2014, as a result of Russia's active implementation of its geopolitical plans to resume control of the post-Soviet territories, there were radical changes in the development of the military-political situation in the world and around Ukraine. The occupation of the Crimea by the Russian Federation, military aggression in the east of Ukraine and the subsequent sharpening of this confrontation between Russia and Western countries, have directly affected political, economic and defense processes in Europe and Eurasia.

The conflict in Ukraine “has revived the ghosts of the Cold War”

As UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stated at the beginning of January this year, the conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated the situation in security and stability sphere in Europe and “has revived the ghosts of the Cold War”. The main object in the confrontation between Russia and the USA-NATO-EU became Ukraine, which, on the one hand, is the main goal of Russian expansion, and on the other — is fundamentally important for the West in terms of strategic deterring of Russia. Russia's aggressive policy in Europe has brought back into the world politics the term “war” as a tool not only for solving political and economic problems, but also for revision of territorial borders. At this, the basic institutions of international governance (the UN and its Security Council) have failed to respond to new challenges. All elements of the European security system (NATO/EU, OSCE, PACE and other structures) also were not ready to guarantee stability on the continent.

At the same time, the sharp reaction of the Western countries and international organizations to the conflict in Ukraine came as a surprise for Moscow. The latter hoped for a repeat of the situation of 2008, when its attack on Georgia caused only a symbolic response of the USA, NATO and the EU. In contrast to the events in the Caucasus, the Russian Federation's armed aggression against Ukraine was perceived by the West as a violation of the entire system of global and regional security, as well as a threat to its interests. Taking this into consideration, the United States, NATO and the EU started to implement a set of measures for strategic containment of the Russian Federation in the political, economic and security sectors, as well as for political, financial and economic support to Ukraine.

Taken actions to counteract Russia are similar to those, which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union

Taken by Western countries large-scale actions to counteract Russia, in many respects are similar to those, which in their time led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. At this, actively and consistently was used a tool of political and economic sanctions — termination of cooperation with Russia within the framework of the “Big Eight”, “Russia-EU” Council, “Russia-NATO” Council, PACE and other organizations; refusal to cooperate in military and military-technical spheres; restricting the Russian Federation's access to Western credits, investments and technologies; a ban on entry to Western countries for a wide range of Russian officials involved in the armed aggression against Ukraine, and blocking their accounts; blocking the work on American and European markets of a number of banks and businesses close to the leadership of the Russian Federation (especially in the energy and defense sectors). Economic pressure on Russia has significantly increased after the United States (together with Saudi Arabia) provoked a rapid decline in oil prices, which is the main export product of the Russian Federation, as well as a source of filling the budget and its foreign exchange earnings.

For its part, Russia has responded with a set of measures for influence and pressure on the USA and EU — the Russian policy towards the West has become increasingly fierce; anti-sanctions have been introduced against food imports of US and European production; active attempts are being made to split the relations between some European countries and between the EU and the US; the energy blackmail of Europe has increased (threats to redirect gas flows to the east (Chinese) direction and demonstrative abandoning of the project “South Stream”). To compensate for its losses from the reduction of cooperation with the USA and the EU in trade, economic, credit and investment spheres, as well as to prevent international isolation, Moscow has intensified its relations with other countries, primarily with China, India, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey and Venezuela.

Confrontation between the USA, NATO, EU and Russia in the security sphere has increased. Due to the fact that the Russian Federation to achieve its foreign policy goals decided to use military methods, Western countries and international organizations, with special attention to the security of Europe, have prepared corresponding changes in the tasks and nature of activities of NATO and the in the defence component of the EU. It has been also decided to increase the USA and NATO's military presence in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic and Black Sea regions. In its turn, Russia has begun to strengthen the grouping of its troops in the Western direction, and intensified provocative activities against the Baltic States and Scandinavia using strike aircrafts (including strategic bombers) and warships. Against the background of NATO and the European Union's uniting around the idea of countering the growing Russian threat, contradictions have grown between the countries of the former Soviet Union and, despite loud communiques, problems in “pro-Russian” integration associations have become sharper too.

All this taken together has led to increased tensions in the military-political situation in the world, Europe and around Ukraine, and has influenced other aspects of international relations, including positions and actions of the leading countries of the world. At this, a large part of the international community has supported Ukraine and condemned the annexation of the Crimea, which has actually led to the international isolation of V. Putin's regime. Thus, unlike other international conflicts, when China traditionally supported Russia (the Libyan, Syrian, Iranian and other issues), the official Beijing has called for preservation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine and has not recognized Russia's annexation of the Crimea. Most of the leading countries of the so-called “Third World”, including Brazil, Argentina, South Africa and Turkey, have also supported the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but have not refused to cooperate with Russia. Moreover, using the current situation, these countries have intensified trade and economic ties with the Russian Federation. At the same time, Russia's actions against Ukraine (including the capture of the Crimea) have been supported by only a few countries traditionally being in the Russian sphere of influence and having disagreements with the USA and the EU, in particular, Venezuela and Syria.