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Note that an authors’ point of view
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Iosif Illarionovich, analyst of Polit.KG
Expert-analytical portal Polit.KG was founded in December 2010 as a resource for experts and decision-makers of the state level in the Kyrgyz Republic. Chief Editor of the website is Arkady Gladilov, former Chief Editor of a number of major publications such as "Komsomolskaya Pravda in Kyrgyzstan", "Word of Kyrgyzstan", "Evening Bishkek" and others..
The author of the material is Iosif Illarionovich, analyst of Polit.KG, an expert on the Caucasus and Central Asia..
3 +2: Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine - two brides of the Customs Union
We cannot say that the participation of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych in the last meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Astana marks a new milestone of Eurasian integration. Everything that is happening now is just a prelude to the really serious step. And it has to be made by the two at once..
The fact that Ukraine intends to become an associate member (yes, exactly!) of the Customs Union, it became clear in mid-March. Responsible for the work on the harmonization of the format were then appointed the Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Boyko and the First Deputy Prime Minister of the RF government Igor Shuvalov. After a lot of coordination, the terminology was adjusted slightly: now we are talking about the status of an observer. In such a way was formalized Kiev’s long manifested desire to work with CU in the 3 +1 format. But even before, about its intention to join the Customs Union - without any intermediate steps – had declared the leadership of Kyrgyzstan. Now - after having signed on May 31 in Minsk memoranda on deepening cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Commission - both countries have been granted observer status at the CU. Now they have the right to put forward their proposals at meetings of ECE - this supranational regulatory body of the Union. How are they going to use this right?.
On the verge of collapse
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| Ways of Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan to the Customs Union in general are similar http://mignews.com.ua/ |
Ways of Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan to the Customs Union in general are similar: the impoverishment of the population, color revolutions, domestic splits, thieving politicians and one simple question - how long? What is the difference between the positions of the two countries today? Frankly speaking, to begin with, there is no alternative to Eurasian integration for the Central Asian republic and there is a reality of the European choice in the case of the former Malorossia (Little Russia). All options for Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian countries, where there is no proper integration plan, are limited to the following list: either to remain open to all the winds (from the South - the wind of Islamism, from the East - the Chinese dragon’s breath, from the West - the pride of the "first world", used to use the third world, ignoring the interests of the indigenous population), or to re-establish links with the Russian civilization space. Kyrgyzstan gained statehood, only having got into the rapid course of the Russian history. The fate of the Kyrgyz is not comparable to the fate of other nomadic peoples who found themselves, for example, in China. This looks obvious to us..
In Ukraine, the situation is slightly different. Apart from the ubiquitous Americans, on whom in the darkest political moments counted even the locked in the Eurasian ring Kyrgyzstan, here like to its own garden, comes Europe. The latter is not only looking closer at Ukraine, but for many centuries has wanted to swallow it. The obvious fact that to "digest" such a prey is an impossible task for the feeble European stomachs does not prevent the owners of the latter from drooling and even biting. A major consequence of these bites - the existence in modern Ukraine (ethnic integrity of which was restored, by the way, only in Stalin’s times) of the nuclear of “Under-Europeans”-Westerners, whose lands at different points of time had been in the possession of Austria-Hungary, Poland and Czech. For a long time, having existed in isolation from their Orthodox relatives, Western Ukrainians gave a strong bias towards Catholicism and Western values. Specially “trained” during the modern history by their European masters, they had become fervent Russophobes and guardians of the national state of the European type. At the same time, they have always been oversensitive about foreigners’ rule over them. In fact, we should talk about the psychological trauma of an entire people. It is worth noting that Soviet authorities only energized these trends, having combined in one country carriers of pure Eurasian mentality (Russian-Ukrainian community of Eastern Ukraine), and nationalists of the Galician leaven. The cocktail turned out to be too strong. Here is the reality that must be considered: politically active "zapadentsi" (Western Ukrainians) will forever remain enemies of the Eurasian integration and rapprochement with Russia. Today, they have actually privatized everything Ukrainian and thoroughly “entrenched” in the government. If President Yushchenko originated directly from their environment, President Yanukovych has to reckon with the opinion of the aggressive minority, even if he is a representative of a completely different platform..
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| Ukraine is prone to split into two parts even more than Kyrgyzstan with its problem of the North and the South http://ungu.org/ |
Thus, Ukraine is prone to split into two parts even more than Kyrgyzstan with its problem of the North and the South. If in the case of Kyrgyzstan there is a confrontation of individual clans, which does not affect foreign policy (both, the North and the South are full of people who want to see Vladimir Putin as their country's President), with Ukraine everything is much more complicated. “Ukraine is entering the final stage of its independent existence”, believes Russian expert Alexander Dugin. He states that a balance between the two opposing political systems is practically impossible: the tacit Eurasian majority must either fully submit to “zapadentsi” (Westerners) or get separated into its own state, having torn the artificially cross linked under Stalin and Khrushchev Ukraine at the seams. A step in the formation of the “Eastern strategy” that would give the mentioned above majority the gift of speech should be the entry of Ukraine into the Eurasian Economic Union. "Zapadentsi" understand this, and therefore are boosting the country's integration into another project — European one. If their plans are realized, the flyback will be gone. Of course, a lot of bad changes have to happen for Ukrainian nationalists to use the method of “blood and iron”. According to the expert Sergey Kurginyan, de-Russification of Ukraine, its transformation into a nation-state will be possible only if Russia itself by that time will have been relegated to the level of a sort of “Moskovia”..
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The option of associate membership in the EU means that Ukraine will take on all the duties of the European “family of nations” without receiving any rights http://newzz.in.ua/ |
In their vain attempts to dress Ukraine into a decent, from their point of view, European suit, Ukrainian nationalists would even agree to this suit being a stitched somewhere near Brussels convict robe. But in the EU itself for Ukraine so far they are preparing panties: a so-called "associate membership" in the EU (remember that Ukrainians tried to apply the same term to describe their motion in the direction of the Customs Union). So, what is it? “The option of associate membership in the EU means that Ukraine will take on all the duties of the European “family of nations” without receiving any rights. In this regard, we can predict a large outflow of the capital. Ukrainian oligarchs, exactly like Russian ones, want their capital to be guaranteed. For this they are willing to hand over the domestic market, widely opening the door to imports. From the point of view of modernization of Ukraine, its participation in the Customs Union would be much more useful. European integration is asymmetric: one can’t compete with giants “, - said Russian expert Mikhail Remizov. His opinion is shared by the Ukrainian journalist, a person of not too Eurasian looks, Vladimir Skachko. He suggests that European integration for Ukraine will inevitably result in four "D"s: desovereignization, connected with absolute synchronization of legislation; de-industrialization (the economic complex of the country in many positions is hopelessly behind the European level); depopulation (as labor Ukrainians will be accepted in Europe with joy: they are white, law-abiding, hard-working); and de-intellectualization (what for do slaves need education?). A lot of Ukrainian researchers with horror look at what is like now the finally “having done with” its own industry and suddenly grown old after its workforce departure to the West, Baltic. Some also point to the fact that the EU does not hesitate to destroy industry in countries of old Europe, — such as Spain, either..
Russia and we could be fellow travelers!
Restoration of economic ties with Russia and other republics of the Customs Union will make an exactly opposite effect. The simplest indicator is as follows: Ukraine so far has been using only 27% of the export potential with Russia. These, by the way, are the data of the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy. You can imagine how big the space to grow is. If we look at the situation soberly, we see that from active interaction prevent a lot of obstacles created just after Ukraine gained independence. Accordingly, these barriers are purely artificial. Ukrainian expert Victor Medvedchuk said that the removal of customs barriers with the CU countries will certainly help his country not only produce competitive products, but also automatically find a market for them, and one of the first to feel these changes will be the dying shipbuilding industry.
The essence of economic growth is not in the range of imported products on shelves of supermarkets, but in the development of efficient production. This simple truth is known to all the “children of the Soviet Union”. But only Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan have realized that we must not tarry. Technologies in our countries are far behind Europe: if we do not develop what there is, we will have to surrender to strongmen-globalists who predict "Heartland"— that is the center of Eurasia— the fate of an agrarian periphery, where there is no room for serious science and industry..
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The main integration project of the Russian Federation is the Eurasian Economic Union |
The main investor in both, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine is the Russian Federation. The main integration project of the Russian Federation is the Eurasian Economic Union. The keyword is “economic”. This means that this platform does not put forward any political demands to this or that country. Unlike European integration, the process of accession to the Customs Union and the ECE will not cause any damage to the sovereignty of our countries. At the same time the economic effect will be enormous. Almost immediately after joining the Customs Union, Ukraine is due to improvement of its trade balance by 9 billion US dollars. Such is the analysis of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. This figure takes into account, among other things, 30% decrease in the oil and gas price. As of a “tremendous incentive” for the Ukrainian economy, about joining the CU speaks political consultant and hereditary Odessa citizen Anatoly Wasserman, “Ukraine, having joined the Customs Union, will come out to such a market, which will be enough to continuously develop industry for many decades”. Note here that possible losses the Ukrainian economy can suffer due to the new customs rules of the CU, are nothing as compared with those which will experience the Kyrgyz economy, where industry is almost entirely destroyed, and hopes to restore it in the near future are bleak. Having tasted all pleasures of membership in the World Trade Organization, the Central Asian country has become a country with a pure service economy and got “hooked on the needle” of re-export of Chinese goods. This (similar processes were, of course, in all post-Soviet republics), has given rise to a whole class of people who are accustomed to parasitize on the actual disintegration of the economy. Representatives of this stratum are now incorporated into power structures, and their advocates get good help from the West, which is not interested in real economic growth of the region and its rapprochement with Russia..
Ukraine, despite its not completely crushed industry, is ill with the same disease. And so while in Belarus and Kazakhstan actual trading volume keeps increasing, in Ukraine it is getting down. Last year, by the increase of production, the CU caught up with the USA and overcame the European Union. According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the emerging Common Economic Space claims to be the “most successful integration project in the world”. Meanwhile, preparing to completely barricade themselves from Russia as the center of the Eurasian integration, Ukrainian nationalists offer citizens of Ukraine to give up the use of Russian gas and oil (they are moskalski ones!). Instead, ordinary Ukrainians are supposed to grow a special “energy vine” - say, the most cost-effective type of fuel for which have already been set aside entire plantations. Yes, in Western Ukraine (from where that vine originates) they have always been good at acting not to their favor… It seems not accidentally that it was Western Ukrainian (of course, only since recently), Lviv / Lemberg where the writer Sacher-Masoch was born, in whose honor was named the corresponding pathology..
P. S.
If nothing else, modern Russia and Ukraine are spiritual heirs of the great Byzantine Empire. Maybe that's why in their histories there are so many amazing parallels with the Second Rome? Here, for example ... Sunset of Byzantium began when the Empire had passed over the control of trade in its Straits to its “friends” from the West—agile and unprincipled Venetians. The consequence of this step was the fast loss of state control over the finances. Transfer of marine communications to Western merchants and the market getting flooded with foreign goods destroyed local producers. And on the bones of the latter, with the connivance of the autocrats grew up a cosmopolitan oligarchy, which finally finished off Byzantium. What about the friends from the West? Having arranged a “crusade” against Constantinople, the “united Europe” had got a lot of Byzantine treasures. "History is not a teacher, she is a matron, she never teaches anybody anything, yet she always punishes for not knowing the lessons”...
Iosif Illarionovich, analyst of Polit.KG.
