February 8, 2017

07.02.2017 "The World Hybrid War: the Ukrainian Front"


Presentation of the book “The World Hybrid War: the Ukrainian Front”


February 7, at the Ukrainian National News Agency “Ukrinform”, Director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine V. Horbulin presented to the audience a collective monograph “The World Hybrid War: the Ukrainian Front”.


Along with him were present reviewers of the book: Vice-President of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine S. Pirozhkov, Director of the Central Research Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Doctor of Military Sciences, Professor, Lieutenant-General I. Romanchenko, Deputy Minister on Issues of the Temporarily Occupied Territories and Internally Displaced Persons of Ukraine H. Tuka.

The monograph can be considered a joint achievement of the experts from the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS) under V. Horbulin's general editorship. For the first time in the national and world science, such a thing as “the world hybrid war” has been studied in detail in the context of Russia's aggression against Ukraine.


— This monograph can be considered a “last warning” to all those who still believe in the illusion of peace, who do not wish to take this new reality — the world hybrid war. Now the world has entered a zone of “increased turbulence”, associated with the emergence of aggression, intolerance, accompanied by the actual rejection of constraining rules and mechanisms. The hybrid war has become a new form of global confrontation in the modern security environment, — pointed out in his speech to the audience, V. Horbulin. And what does this so-called new turbulence threaten the world with? The answer to this question, strange as it might seem, is simple — and the expert tried to explain this to the audience.

— Misunderstanding the nature of a hybrid aggression leads to “geopolitical blindness”, — explained V. Horbulin. — Ukraine let the Russian business, Russian mass media, Russian special services play the master in Ukrainian home, in particular, extended the term of basing of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, adopted the dictated by Moscow law on languages. But this has not saved our country from the armed aggression and attempts to destroy the Ukrainian statehood.

By the way, the respected scientist is sure that the war waged by Russia in Ukraine, shocked not only Ukraine itself. All leading world powers were helpless before such a course of events. Today Ukraine is forced to fight for its independence in a war that has already become part of a larger world conflict of a complex nature, and which has a very worrying prospect. Why is it recognized alarming? As V. Horbulin pointed out, we now live in a world where every man for himself, where the implementation of the signed agreements is seen as weakness, and talks about the nuclear ashes were the theme of political show. The vector of our further development depends on our joint-willed, intellectual and moral capacity to restore justice, needed not only by us, but by the entire civilized world standing behind us during our opposition to the aggressor.

It is hard to disagree with this statement of Vladimir Pavlovich's.


As for the presented monograph, it, in particular, reveals the military, economic, humanitarian, informational and social aspects of the “hybrid war”. And the hybrid aggression itself is traced in dynamics, gives explanations about its origins, causes, deployment logic, the reaction of the offended party — Ukraine. Besides, the book analyzes the changes that have occurred in Ukraine during the aggression, and the conclusions drawn that will be useful for many countries. At least the clearly identified beginning of the hybrid aggression.

And here we'd better quote the head of the group of authors V. Horbulin:

— What do we need to realize? The hybrid war is a war without winners. Effective existence in the new hybrid world, which we are just beginning to understand, is possible, if we keep the unity, understand the objectives and means of the enemy, and strengthen our spirit and capability of defending ourselves...

— What scenarios can be cook for us by the Kremlin in the near future? The scenario — let's call it “battle” — is an offensive of the armed formations from the Donbas with the support by Russian troops from all possible directions. The scenario — “ultimatum” — it may be a scenario for federalization and actual de-sovereignization of Ukraine. The scenario — “degradation” is turning Ukraine into a “grey area”, no man's land of instability and a frozen conflict, doomed to gradual degradation. Which of these scenarios will be realized — it is difficult to predict, but Ukraine should be prepared for each of them.


V. Horbulin also mentioned the main results of Ukraine's three years of counteracting the “hybrid war” waged by the Russian Federation in the Donbas. Firstly, in his opinion, Ukraine has proved its full worth as a state, which is capable of defending its sovereignty and political subjectivity. Also a kind of momentum has been formed, which has accelerated economic, financial and structural changes: the scale of export-import relations with the EU countries has grown, the debt “shackles” have got weakened, we began to get out of the energy “trap”.

Speaking of Russia's hybrid war, V. Horbulin pointed out that it is characterized by the absence of clearly defined time horizons. “That is, it cannot be fixed in time, nor can be determined the final deadline for completion. Besides, the true goals of a hybrid war are not clear and not well understood”, — he stressed.


The reviewers of the monograph also shared their thoughts. These were the numerous guests of the press conference, including Research Fellow of the Royal Institute of International Relations (UK) James Sherr, People's Deputy of Ukraine A. Herashchenko, a Ukrainian politician Yu. Karmazin, a prominent Ukrainian human rights activist S. Hmara, politicians T. Berezovets, E. Magda and many others.

The event was also attended by experts of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel.”


The team of “Borysfen Intel” congratulates Volodymyr Pavlovych Horbulin and the entire team of NISS authors on the publishing of this interesting and useful research.


Photo by V. Rayevskyi


”The World Hybrid War: the Ukrainian Front”. In the monograph, prepared by experts of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, for the first time in national and world science were studied in detail the phenomenon of a hybrid war in the perspective of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The essence of hybrid warfare is studied in the context of the systemic crisis of global security, and its phenomenon — as a new kind of global confrontation. The book examines in detail the reasons and causes for Russia's aggression against Ukraine, its strategic goals, as well as the peculiarities of conducting hybrid war in different dimensions: military, political, economic, social, humanitarian, informational. The monograph analyses our country's local successes in countering the Russian Federation's hostile plans in certain areas. A general conclusion has been drawn — Ukraine as a state has proved its capability of defending its sovereignty in the struggle against the aggressor. The book studies the problems of reforming the world security institutions and the search for a balance of forces in the new hybrid reality.

The monograph is for politicians, political analysts, senior civil servants, scientists in the field of security studies. The findings might be interesting for teachers, representatives of civil society, as well as for nationally conscious citizens.


The monograph (in Ukrainian) can be downloaded from our website or from the NISS site — http://www.niss.gov.ua/articles/2431/