July 24, 2014

Battle of Ukraine

Oleksiy Volovych

In July 2009, at a meeting of the State Duma of Russia, during the discussion of the theme of the 300th anniversary of the Battle of Poltava, Deputy S. Bagdasarov said, “The next presidential elections in 2010 in Ukraine — will be not just the next elections of the president, they will be our Battle of Poltava-2, only not a military, but by other means.” Putin liked this idea very much, although he himself thought about it a lot. Indeed, through the use of “soft power” at the “Ukrainian Front” lots of victories have been won. There is something to be proud of. Despite the Orange Revolution, in Kyiv he did manage to seat a Russian puppet Yanukovych. Recently, however, the latter got into character of “samostіynik” (independent) to such extent that it began to irritate even Putin. Especially the fact that Yanukovych was too much carried away by European integration and for a long time did not agree to appoint Putin's in-law V. Medvedchuk to the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine. However, with the help of pressure and blackmail Yanukovych was put in his place, having been reminded at this about the role, chosen for him by the Kremlin back in 2004.

Thanks to the activities of the last two Defense Ministers of Ukraine D. Salamatin and P. Lebedev, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had been turned into “Toy Army”
Thanks to the activities of the last two Defense Ministers of Ukraine D. Salamatin and P. Lebedev, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had been turned into “Toy Army”

December 17, 2013 Putin was celebrating his victory, as it seemed, in the final battle of Ukraine, whose “independence” looked complete fiction. On that day, the fourth in the last two months Yanukovych's visit to Russia resulted in signing agreements on a 15 billion US dollars loan and reduction of the price for Russian gas to 268 US dollars per one thousand cubic meters. That was a “carrot” for Yanukovych's giving up Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration in exchange for joining later the Customs and Eurasian Unions. In a word, Putin could be satisfied with the results of the last few years of work on subordinating Ukraine to Russia's interests.

At that time, about 70% of the economic potential of Ukraine was controlled by Russian capital. Since 2009, Ukrainians had been overpaying for gas and thus, among other things, financing Russian secret services' subversive activities against Ukraine. In April 2010 was signed the Agreement on the Black Sea Fleet's basing in the Crimea until 2042. During the last 10 years in Verkhovna Rada (the Parliament), in the government and in regional governing institutions of Ukraine, “Regionals” and Communists had created a powerful pro-Russian lobby. Russian special services had established their control over the power unit of Ukraine — the Army, the Police, the Security Service and other special services. “Thanks” to the activities of the last two Defense Ministers of Ukraine D. Salamatin and P. Lebedev, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had been turned into “Toy Army”.

FSB agents organized separatist movements in Trans-Carpathia, the Crimea and in the South-East of Ukraine. After the Verkhovna Rada's adoption on July 3, 2012 of Kivalov-Kolesnichenko's law “On State Language Policy in Ukraine”, the state status of the Ukrainian language had become a fiction completely. Not less than 80% of periodicals in Ukraine are Russian. Radio and television broadcast has been captivated by Russian products. During the entire period of “independence” Ukrainians have to watch Russian television series, which, by the way, among other things, bring them to the Russian mentality and steadily deplete their “Ukrainian” identity. The West has made ​​it clear that it is not going to war with Russia over Ukraine and will not give our state a serious military aid. The symbolic EU and U.S. sanctions against Putin's environment could only make him laugh. 80% of Russians support Putin's policy towards Ukraine. Against the background of the “patriotic” ecstasy, his rating has reached its highest level.

Separatists' leaders had reached an agreement to unite these “republics” into a federal state “Novorossia” (“New Russia”)
Separatists' leaders had reached an agreement to unite these “republics” into a federal state “Novorossia” (“New Russia”)

However, in February 2014 things did not go according to the Kremlin's plan. Everything was spoiled by these damn “pravoseki” (the Right Sector), “Banderites” and “maydanutye” (the Maidanned) who succeeded in a coup, ousted the wretched coward Yanukovych to Russia, and brought to the government the “pro-American junta”. Successes reached at the “Ukrainian Front” were under threat. May 25 as the Ukrainian President is elected a strong-willed and experienced politician P. Poroshenko. All pro-Russian presidential candidates taken together did not get even 3% of the vote. No less experienced politician Yatsenyuk has been at head of the Ukrainian government for the fifth month in a tough military-political and economic crisis in the country. Both Ukrainian leaders are devoted supporters of European integration.

Of course, Putin could not accept the loss of Ukraine, and began to act in accordance with the previously prepared plan. First the Crimea was annexed. It was surprisingly easy, almost without firing a shot. Soon the Russian agents and separatists of South-East got the long-awaited signal to oppose “Kiev junta and Banderites”. At the beginning of the “people's uprising” in the Donbas, separatists and their patrons in Moscow reached weighty political success. Police and Security Service in Donetsk and Lugansk regions almost entirely went over to the side of separatists. With the “general triumph of the people”, thanks to the support of Communists and “Regionals”, as well as of some oligarchs, were declared “People's Republic of Donetsk” and “People's Republic of Luhansk”, and May 11 was held a “referendum” on their independence. Separatists' leaders had reached an agreement to unite these “republics” into a federal state “Novorossia” (“New Russia”).

But soon in the developed scenario of the “people's uprising” in the Southeast occurred failures. Unlike the situation in the Crimea, the Ukrainian Army provides active resistance, steadily increasing its combat capability. Tens of thousands of “Ukrs” and “Banderites” go as volunteers into the National Guard. On the other hand, the “people's resistance” in the South-East has proved to be quite modest, which was an unpleasant surprise for Putin. To help “rebels”, are sent Russian special services' officers and tens of thousands of fighters who have experience in the wars in Afghanistan, Trans-Dniester, Chechnya and Georgia. Separatists and terrorists kept receiving weapons, ammunition and finances in sufficient quantities through the leaky Russian-Ukrainian border. A powerful propaganda machine of the Kremlin kept working to the full.

However, despite the powerful Russian support, other than in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a mass uprising in the other six regions of the “historic Novorossia” has not happened. Says the pro-Russian writer, a resident of Luhansk Gleb Bobrov, “...In Donbas won philistinism — the ratio of inhabitants and passionaries more than 100:1. After the referendum the winning rally in the half million Luhansk was attended by one thousand people. In the seven million Donbas there were not more than 3 thousand militants — less than 0.5% of the population! About what can we talk?![1]”

Of course, the Kremlin is able to enter the “peacekeepers” in the “New Russia” to protect Russians from “ukrs, Banderites and Kiev nationalist junta” and, eventually to attach the “liberated territories” to Russia, but does it make sense? Most of Ukraine will still remain under control of “Amerikoses” and the millions of “Novorossia” will have to be fed and in every way to be pleased, and the destroyed infrastructure's restoration will need multibillion injections. Besides, it will be an unbearable burden on the Russian economy, the population of the “liberated Novorossia” can show frustration and disappointment as today the ungrateful inhabitants of the Crimea do. In general, the population is unreliable: yesterday they welcomed the establishment of the PRD and PRL, and today a considerable part of them meets troops of “Ukrs” with Ukrainian flags and flowers in Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and other cities...

So, the task is not to liberate and annex “Novorossia” as a result of large-scale invasion of Russian regular troops, but to achieve a change of government in Kiev. For this it is enough to support separatists in “Novorossia” in various ways: military, economic, political, informational. This is a war for exhaustion, and terrorist operations will be conducted as long as necessary in order to cause general indignation of the Ukrainian population and to bring it to a point where joining Russia would seem incredible happiness and “ultimate dream”. Ukrainian authorities need to realize that because of their pro-Western policies, the economy may completely collapse. In other words, if Ukraine is turned into Iraq or Syria, it will completely ripen for becoming part of Russia. And for fulfilling this task, Russia has all resources: weapons, ammunition, money and militants for whom the military campaign in the South-East of Ukraine will become a source of not bad earnings and an opportunity to acquire combat experience, as fighting for the revival of the Russian empire will take long.

With zeal worth better use, pro-Kremlin political strategists and ideologues divide the population of Ukraine into Russian-speaking and Ukrainian -speaking, although in reality there is no such division

With zeal worth better use, pro-Kremlin political strategists and ideologues divide the population of Ukraine into Russian-speaking and Ukrainian -speaking, although in reality there is no such division

Analysis of various information shows this is how the Kremlin strategists think today. But they will surely lose as their chauvinism does not let them to objectively perceive Ukraine. According to the well-known Russian journalist Andrei Piontkovsky[2], “...Russian public consciousness, affected by megalomania phantom imperial complexes, has imposed on itself a completely wrong picture of what is going on in Ukraine”. Many realities are seen by the Russian society not as they really are, but as they are wished to be. They forget that the “Russian-speaking population” of the South-East of Ukraine is part of Ukraine, at least since 1922, since the foundation of the Soviet Union. Today, formation of the independent Ukraine within its present borders is called “artificial" by Russia. Putin somehow “does not understand” — why the south-eastern regions were included into the Soviet Ukraine, though why had they to be attached to Russia, if they are 80% populated by Ukrainians? In our view, Lenin, forming the basis of the national policy of the USSR was not stupid than the “homo-chekistus” ( chekist — KGB-man) Putin.

With zeal worth better use, pro-Kremlin political strategists and ideologues divide the population of Ukraine into Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking, although in reality there is no such division. Nearly 100% of the population of Ukraine, even on “the far West,” is bilingua — Russian- and Ukrainian- speaking. However, we should admit the existence of a small part of ethnic Russians, especially among older people, who do not perceive not just the Ukrainian language, but everything Ukrainian. The Kremlin does not want to realize that to be a Russian and to praise Putin is not the same thing, that millions of ethnic Russians in Ukraine are patriots, and millions of ethnic Ukrainians communicating in Russian, are also Ukrainian patriots. It is not the language that matters, but the thoughts and ideas which one expresses.

Through its anti-Ukrainian plans the Kremlin seeks to make a split between certain European countries as well as between the EU and the USA. The main instruments of this policy are the use of the “energy weapon” and economic ties, bribing officials and media in European countries, conducting information-psychological war. Putin tries to position the BRICS group countries as an anti-American interstate association, but it is not possible at least because the USA's volume of trade with these countries is much higher than Russia's one with them. For example, the volume of trade between the USA and China is more than 600 billion US dollars, while that between Russia and China is 87 billion US dollars — that is, almost 8 times less. The same situation is in the USA and Russia's trade with other countries of the BRICS group.

Events in Donbas, Russia is trying to present to the world community as an internal Ukrainian conflict and a civil war, while it is a continuation of the 300 years of struggle for national liberation of the Ukrainian people against Russian imperialism. The mutiny in the Donbas had been prepared by Russian special services for many years and was only possible due to Russia's direct military aggression. Putin is trying to promote the “Russian world” with its dubious civilization values ​​at the cost of destruction of the “Ukrainian world,” cherished in the struggle of the Ukrainian people over the centuries of the Ukrainian dramatic history. But today Ukraine has become an integral part of Europe and is supported by the overwhelming majority of countries. So Putin’s outrage during the process of Ukraine's returning to its European home is doomed to a crushing defeat, and for the Russians and Ukrainians certainly will be opened perspectives of peaceful competition between the “Russian World” and “Ukrainian World” and of civilized, equal cooperation for the benefit of both Russian and Ukrainian peoples. But how many more Ukrainians and Russians should lay down their heads in the war for Moscow to finally realize that it is impossible to enslave Ukraine because in the crucible of the Revolution of Dignity was born a new Ukrainian nation, whose highest value is freedom.

 



[1] Gleb Bobrov:  I treat with great hope to creation of Novorossia

[2] A. Piontkovsky. Putin will lose in Ukraine