Ukrainian military servicemen will not be taming “Euromaydan”
Can President Viktor Yanukovych use the power scenario, what kinds of mood prevail among employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and will the Army interfere into the conflict? These and other questions of “Gazety.Ru” have been answered by the former Chief of the Military Intelligence of Ukraine, President of the independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”, Victor Hvozd.
— The protest in Kiev broke out after Viktor Yanukovych had refused to sign integration agreements with the European Union. But now slogans of the European integration are forgotten, protesters are driven by exactly dislike for authorities...
— Opposition leaders were not prepared for such an eventuality. People took the lead, the third force appeared — public organizations, which are not under control of the protest leaders.
Nobody remembers about Euro-integration — the main demands are directed against the government.
All the more so because the government has not made a single step toward the protesters.
Now, when the bloodshed, opposition leaders are still trying to bring the situation under control, and so far, with difficulty, they do cope.
International mediators are trying to act, but mediation, and I know this from the Balkans, — is dragging out of the process, and this way itself can be long and lead eventually to a complete destabilization.
Plus we have become an object of Russia, the USA and the EU's geopolitical games.
— Can we say that all these players are using the situation to their advantage?
— Yes, and the completion of these scenarios should be a division of Ukraine. At the moment on this slippery slope is the government, but interestingly, on the Maidan there are people from all regions of Ukraine.
From Eastern ones — fewer, but even there events are on: in Poltava, Cherkasy, Donetsk, Lugansk, where even football fans(so-called “ultras”) go out to protect “Euromaidaners”.
Ukrainians had lived in different civilization spheres of influence: but while in the West is still remembered struggle against the communist regime in 1950s, Eastern regions remember 1920-1930s.
And now people's motivation to combat the current government rolls to such extant that they are ready to go great lengths.
— Is not there a danger that the ultra-right elements may take lead in the protest movement?
— The “Right sector” — is the guys who had been preparing for more than one year, and today their time, unfortunately, has come.
Iron discipline, good street fighting tactics — they are well organized. True, they say that in the ranks of those who started the confrontation on Hrushevskoho Street there were provocateurs and they could have been used as a fuse to destabilize the situation in general, in order to further disrupting of the Maidan. But the situation got out of control.
— Army remains neutral, but can come a point when the military will be forced to interfere into the conflict?
— The military have taken a position not to interfere into the conflict and not to use weapons against civilians.
I know the mood of the Command personnel of the Armed Forces. They will not interfere in the conflict for various reasons, which I would not like to voice.
But if the Army of Ukraine does go out into the street — it will immediately go to the people's side. The situation will be like that with the tank battalion in August 1991 in Moscow — I think this is one of the reasons why the government does not use troops.
— And what kinds of mood prevail in Militia and Ministry of Internal Affairs' troops?
— They understand that they are being used — used in the first line, the junior military and officers are thrown forward, “Berkut” stands behind them. Everywhere “Berkut” is called “spetsnaz” (“Special Task Force”). There are Army Special Task Forces: people where one is worth twenty people, but “Berkut” is participants in a punitive actions that can lose if they face an appropriate force. Their actions are inadequate, and this causes antipathy from their former colleagues.
But they are well treated ideologically and financially motivated.
On the Maidan, there are also many ex-military, commandos, “Afghans”, and if it comes to weapons, the scenario can be unpredictable. Those in power, unfortunately, use force where it should not be used, and a response to a force is always a force.
It's all intertwined into one ball — the political and social crisis, terrible corruption and struggle for power between the government and opposition.
And it all has turned into a kind of political “Molotov cocktail”, which is very difficult to extinguish. The government should have solved with this situation one and a half months ago, because now, no matter what they do, the situation plays against them. To date, the government does not realize what a dangerous line they are next to.
— Are there people in President's environment, who understand that the situation can reach a catastrophic scenario?
— I had to work under Viktor Yanukovych — he is not a stupid man, pragmatic, hard and despite all his positive features — very stubborn, cunning and even somewhat cynical.
But he is aware that if he loses at least one of his Minister — the whole system will fall.
Today actually all power is in the hands of the “Donetsk clan” and especially in the force structures. Yanukovych seems to have been specially tripped — here is the crackdown of demonstrations, storm of the Maidan, illegitimate adoption of anti-democratic laws, use of so-called death squads, where law enforcement and crime have intertwined to destroy activists.
But by the latest television pictures, I realized that some change of heart did happen, and I think that he should draw conclusions from what has happened — to make serious compromises.
Although Rubicon has been crossed twice. But for Ukraine it is fashionable to cross it three times and to enter the same river twice.
— Can President Yanukovych to go to an early election?
— I believe he can, but only if he has no other option. And this is when all the power in the regions has passed into the hands of the people. But in this situation, no one will be asking him.
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2014/01/26_a_5867349.shtml
