Victor Hvozd
September 1 of this year the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union entered into full force, including the creation of an in-depth and comprehensive free trade area. This event is of historic importance for Ukraine, as this is the first practical step on its way to EU membership, which creates broad prospects. The conclusion of the Agreement, the decision of the European Union to simplify the visa regime for Ukrainian citizens, and the deepening of the partnership between Ukraine and NATO within the framework of the Comprehensive Assistance Plan for Ukraine (adopted during the Warsaw Summit of the Alliance in July 2016) testify to the adoption of fundamental decisions by the USA, NATO and EU on the inclusion of Ukraine into the sphere of their responsibility. This has actually changed the international position of Ukraine, which has left the “gray zone” of uncertainty between the West and Russia, and has become an active participant in European and world politics with a clear course for entering the Western world.
The reason for such decisions by the USA, EU and NATO is Ukraine's role and importance in containing Russia's neo-imperial policy that threatens the entire Western civilization. To date, it is Ukraine that is the main direction of the Russian Federation's expansion and is drawing in most of its efforts. At this, without establishing its control over Ukraine (second most powerful country of the former USSR), Russia will in no way be able to realize its geopolitical ambitions, hence its actions.
Under such circumstances, today Ukraine is more important for the USA, NATO and the EU than used to be the countries of Central-Eastern Europe and the Baltic states. At the same time, the process of its European and Euro-Atlantic integration is much more complex than it was in the CEE and Baltic countries after the collapse of the socialist camp (the “Eastern bloc”) and the USSR. First of all, this concerns the problems of the Crimea and the Donbas, which were created by Russia to block the possibility of Ukraine's accession to the European Union and NATO.
Proceeding from the above, the implementation of the plans for Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic integration requires more time and new forms of joining the EU and NATO. In particular, one of the forms could be the association or establishment of a qualitatively new level of cooperation between Ukraine and the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance at the level of de-facto membership in these organizations without getting de-jure one.
Despite this, Ukraine's joining the European Union and NATO will have a number of important consequences, including geopolitical ones, both for Europe, and for Ukraine and Russia.
First — the establishment of a qualitatively new level of relations between the EU, NATO and Ukraine, even without its official membership in these organizations, will lead to a significant change in the balance of power in Europe in favor of the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance at the expense of demographic, economic, territorial and military resources of our State. In turn, this will be a powerful factor in enhancing the potential of the United Europe and strengthening its security against threats from the Russian Federation.
Second — Ukraine's rapprochement with the EU and NATO to the level of actual (associated) membership will mean a change in the configuration of the entire eastern border of the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance, namely, their direct access to the western border of the Russian Federation. At this, Ukraine instead of being the “buffer” zone between Europe and Russia will actually become the “eastern outpost” of the EU and NATO, which today are the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. On the one hand, this will contribute to the expansion of the zone of stability in Europe on the eastern direction, and on the other — will increase tensions on its eastern borders due to Russia's negative reaction and its reciprocal steps (including in the military sphere).
Third — Ukraine's integration into NATO and the EU will contribute to the social and economic development of our State and guarantee its security. Besides, Ukraine's being part of the United Europe (actually without internal borders) will objectively remove all potential territorial claims to it from the neighboring CEE countries and will help resolve other problems in bilateral and multilateral relations. At the same time, as NATO and the EU are supranational entities, this will lead to the need to delegate some of Ukraine's national sovereignty to the level of the highest bodies of these organizations, and will also provide for the fulfillment of their conditions and requirements. In this regard, the collective interests of the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance will have priority over the national interests of Ukraine.
Fourth — Ukraine's coming nearer to the EU and NATO will lead to the transition of the problems of the Crimea and Donbas from the national level of our State to the level of the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance. Under such circumstances, the leaderships of the EU and NATO will have to step up their participation in resolving the conflict in the East of Ukraine and settling the Crimean issue. In turn, Ukraine will have to follow the recommendations of its Western partners even if they do not conform to its own views on ways to restore its territorial integrity.
Fifth — Ukraine's rapprochement with the EU and NATO with the prospect of membership in these organizations will finally undermine Russia's plans to become a “great world power”. Moreover, strengthening the position of the PRC in the post-Soviet space within the framework of China's “The Belt and Road” initiative in fact makes it impossible for Moscow to create a full-fledged Eurasian Union, limiting also the regional importance of the Russian Federation. With this in mind, Russia will make every effort to counteract the European and Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine up to the use of armed force (from the intensification of the armed confrontation in the Donbas to a full-scale offensive operation against Ukraine with the occupation of its territory).
All this rises before Ukraine and its Western allies a number of difficult and complex questions, and also needs rethinking of the whole situation around the process of Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic integration.
First of all, this refers to the need to clearly understand that Ukraine will lose some of its sovereignty in favor of the EU and NATO and will have to fulfill the conditions and requirements for membership in these organizations. For example, Ukraine's integration into the EU and NATO, even in the form of associated membership, will lead to the necessity of subordinating its foreign policy and measures to ensure the security of the state to the common foreign and security policy of the European Union, as well as to the strategy and military plans of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Similarly, all components of the domestic sphere of Ukraine should be up to the EU and NATO standards, which will mean a set of political, economic, social, legal and other reforms. At this, such reforms will be mandatory, even if they affect the interests of political and economic circles and the population of Ukraine and are unpopular in nature. In particular, in this regard, we may mention the EU's demand to change the pension system of Ukraine, to bringing domestic energy prices to world standards, to open markets and to limit support to domestic producers, as well as to make free land sales.
Besides, a rather complex issue will be Ukraine's taking its niche in the international division of labor in the European Union, as well as the demand for the full opening of its market for European goods. This will lead to the need to reorganize individual enterprises and branches of the Ukrainian industry as they will not be able to compete European counterparts or will be superfluous in the common economic system of the EU.
In turn, Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic integration will need the EU and NATO's serious revising their attitude to the new partner and views on cooperation. In this regard, the most problematic for the European Union will be the opening of Ukraine's access to European financial funds, as well as markets for goods, services and labor. The complexity of this issue is determined by Ukraine's significant potential, which in fact is not inferior to the potential of Poland and exceeds the potentials of all other “new” members of the EU.
At the same time, an extremely delicate issue for NATO will be the extension to Ukraine of the North Atlantic Alliance's collective defense obligations to defend the member countries of the Organization. This problem is particularly acute in the context of Russia's annexation of the Crimea and its continued actions to provoke an armed conflict in the Donbas. Taking this into consideration, even if the NATO leadership refrains from extending such obligations to Ukraine, deepening cooperation in the security sphere will lead to the need to revise the Alliance's operational plans.
Against this background, a separate problem will be further relations between Ukraine, the EU, NATO and Russia after Ukraine's having come to the level of an in-depth partnership with the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance. Considering Russia's principled zero tolerance of Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic integration, such a situation will require a rather complex dialogue between the parties in order to prevent deepening of the contradictions between them to the level of military confrontation.
In general, the above-mentioned circumstances cause a rather ambiguous and even contradictory attitude to the prospects for Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO, of both Ukrainian society and the leadership and the public of the countries of the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance. In particular, a manifestation of this were the difficulties in the processes of adoption of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, as well as in the EU's decision to simplify the visa regime with Ukraine.
At this, although the EU leadership supports the process of Ukraine's European integration, it refuses to provide clear guarantees of its future membership in the European Union. Similarly, NATO leadership confirms the Alliance's “open doors” for Ukraine, but refrains from granting it the status of a participant in the NATO Membership Action Plan.
In the light of the above, the implementation of Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic plans requires considerable efforts and time, as well as hard, complex and persistent work, both of our State and of the Western allies. At one time, Romania and Bulgaria were in a similar situation, initially being not perceived by Europe, and later becoming members of the EU and NATO. But then even after more than 15 years of membership in the European Union, they are still not part of the Schengen and Euro- zones because of a lack of compliance with certain criteria and requirements.
Therefore, careless attitude to the processes of Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic integration, as well as attempts at their artificial acceleration, are extremely unproductive and even harmful, because they lead only to problems and misunderstandings in relations with Western allies. Moreover, they are used by Russia to discredit Ukraine's path into the EU and NATO and to spread distrust to it in the Ukrainian society.
