One of the important and interesting for Ukraine theme, on which the analysts of the “Borysfen Intel” Independent Analytical Centre for Geopolitical Studies constantly work, is the PRC's role and place in the world, its relations with Russia, the USA, the EU and other influential geopolitical players. The readers of our website know this as we post such materials regularly. Permanent visitors of our website find such studies interesting and useful, sometimes they present their comments or suggestions that help us improve our work, expand the subject matter and the forms of presenting, and in a certain way establish our relations with the People's Republic of China.
As are trying to do our colleagues from the Centre for Russian Studies (CRS), headed by Volodymyr Ohryzko. It is this Center that on December 8, 2017 organized the international conference “Russia-China: Realities and Prospects”, in which analysts of our Center “Borysfen Intel” had the honor to participate, and President Victor Hvozd made a speech “Russian-Chinese Relations in the Context of Global Security”. Organizers are well aware that the “Chinese” topic has been of interest to Viktor Ivanovych since times immemorial, or, to be exact, since his young lieutenant years, when he was serving in the Trans-Baikal region and was mastering his Chinese...
A few words about V. Hvozd's report, in which he gave a comprehensive assessment of the influence of Russian-Chinese relations on the strategic balance of forces in the world in the context of the formation of a new world order with two leading centers of power — the United States and China. In his view, China and the Russian Federation are interested in developing bilateral cooperation, but the goals of each of these countries are different. In particular, the People's Republic of China seeks to expand its access to Russian resources and modern technologies, while simultaneously drawing Russia into its sphere of geopolitical influence. While Moscow, deepening its cooperation with China, is trying to strengthen its capabilities in confronting the USA, NATO and the EU, and to compensate for losses from Western sanctions. Despite the mutual interest in relations between the People's Republic of China and Russia, there are significant differences. Thus, China views Russia first of all as an object of external expansion and strengthening of Chinese positions in post-Soviet territories, which is contrary to Russian interests. Besides, at the moment, China has no plans to build an alliance with Russia on an anti-American basis but, on the contrary, is deepening its strategic partnership with the United States.
Analyzing the essence of the military cooperation between the PRC and the Russian Federation, mentioning the number of joint Russian-Chinese military exercises, and, in particular, the number of Chinese army groupings in the Far East that are three times larger than the Russian ones, the speaker pointed out that, despite bilateral strategic relations, these countries do not trust each other to the end. (By the way, this report is planned to be published on the website of “Borysfen Intel”).
The next speaker, Professor Motohide Saito (Center for Policy and Cultural Studies, Chuo University, Japan), while agreeing with the speeches of his colleagues, outlined his vision of the development of relations between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China. For example, if Putin hopes that his rapprochement with the PRC will be cause some USA's losses, he is wrong. If nothing else, simply because the PRC at the same time will also try to benefit from the RF's confrontation with the United States, and its chances here are certainly greater. Also, M. Saito does not agree with the Japanese establishment's opinion that Russia, losing ties with the EU, will change its policy and will actively work on the Far Eastern direction, making China interested in the Russian deposits of natural gas so much needed by the Chinese for economic development. Russians are offering natural gas to Japan as well, but as the Professor explained, it can conclude a contract for the purchase of only a certain, small amount of blue fuel, as this is regulated by the Japanese-American agreement. Therefore, Japan exports gas from other sources, for example, from Azerbaijan.
And one of the attendees at the scientific conference, Mykhailo Honchar, president of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, expert of the Centre for Russian Studies, said that the turn of the gas export from the European direction to the Far East is considered unprofitable, so making final conclusions is inappropriate. Profesor Yury Fedorov (PIR Center, Italy) agreed with him, reminding that although Russia's mineral deposits are numerous, they still need to be developed.
By the way, it should be recalled that the present Russian northern gas fields in the times of the Soviet Union were developed by the so-called watchdog method mainly by specialists-natives of Ukraine, many of whom (about two hundred thousand) now live there permanently. Who will develop the newest deposits? The question is more than rhetorical. But the Russian propagandists of the “Russian world” would rather bite back their words when they try to humiliate at Ukrainian laborers. But then, earning by your own work is never a shame — it's a shame to steal and “grab hold of”, as it was done with the Crimean peninsula and is being done in the East of Ukraine with the Donbas...
No less interesting and cognitive was the report by Andriy Honcharuk (National Institute for Strategic Studies) when he familiarized the audience with indicators of trade between Ukraine and the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, etc.
“Russia”, A. Honcharuk said, “is a country that is going from there (from Central Asia), while China is a country that has already come there”!
And in confirmation of his words, he gave many respectable examples, when the People's Republic of China's having confidently established itself on the markets of the former Soviet republics with the help of considerable investments, offering at this the latest technologies, scientific developments, raising the local, only just existing industry. And the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is no longer considered a Russian product, since Russia is losing its leading role there. And wrong is the statement that the citizens of the countries of Central Asia are seeking to get education in Russia.
“There are times more Kazakh students studying in China than in Russia”, said A. Honcharuk. — “And this suggests that Chinese positions are more attractive than Russian ones. And China is beginning to confidently play the leading role. While Russia — to lag behind ideologically, economically and aesthetically...”
The theme of the speech by Dr. Viktor Kiktenko (Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Science of Ukraine, president of the Ukrainian association of Sinologists) was “Russian-Chinese Relations and Ukrainian Interests”. The issues touched upon by the speaker are relevant, since through all years of Ukraine's independence, ties with China have been established and maintained fairly actively, including (and above all) economic ones. Can they be considered pragmatic? From the Chinese side — yes, but from our, Ukrainian one — not always. The Chinese are interested in our scientific developments, technologies, scientific schools. And what can they offer us? The future transit on the new Silk Road? The answer to this question, if any, is known to the limited circle of our so called governors, who so far only report on their intentions to establish cooperation with the new center of world power — as the People's Republic of China is now called. To tell the truth, we have heard such intentions many times since the presidency of L. Kuchma and including the First Vice Prime Minister S. Kubivy's signing of the deal with the Chinese side. And what of that? After all, the time has shown that one signature of a high-ranking official is not enough to achieve at least some success in bilateral relations, especially with such a companion as China. By the way, the PRC treats Ukraine as a partner with due respect. According to V. Kiktenko, in the Chinese press they write about us that we are a European country. The events in our East are regarded to as separatism by the Chinese, because in China for many years there is a similar problem with the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. At the same time, the Chinese officially do not recognize that Russia is conducting hostilities on the Ukrainian territory, although they do consider the Crimean peninsula Ukrainian.
…So, the conference can be considered the next step, which will help to better understand today's difficult relations between the PRC, Russia and the USA, and as V. Hvozd said, it is important for Ukraine not to get lost in this “geopolitical Bermuda Triangle”. This means that Ukraine should rely first of all on its own strength and not forget about pragmatism in communicating with major geopolitical players.
Oleh Makhno
The photo-report by Volodymyr Rayevskyi
