Yuriy Radkovets
After Ankara had repeatedly strictly warned Moscow about the inviolability of its air borders (last a Russian military aircraft violated the airspace of Turkey near the Syrian border October 3, 2015), on 24 November, 2015, Turkish F-16 fighters shot down over the border with Syria (after ten warnings within five minutes) the Russian Su-24 bomber which invaded the country's airspace.
According to the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: “…Turkey was protecting its borders, shooting down a Russian Su-24 bomber, while trying by all means to avoid such a scenario ... But everyone should respect the right of Turkey to defend its borders”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, during his meeting with King of Jordan Abdullah II emphasized that the military aircraft Su-24 was downed by a Turkish F-16, 1 km from the border with Turkey, which he called “accomplice of terrorists”: “... Today's loss is due to a stab in the back by the terrorists’ accomplices ... This tragic event will have serious consequences for Russian-Turkish relations”.
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Note: Russia's stock market has accelerated its decline immediately after Russian President V. Putin's speech at a meeting with Jordan's King Abdullah II. This is seen from trading, namely: the MICEX's (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange - Russian Universal Exchange, which existed during the years 1992-2011; in December 2011 it merged with the RTS (Russian Trading System) into MICEX-RTS (since 2012 - “Moscow Exchange”)) index fell by 2.9 % to 1813.9 points. The RTS index fell by 3.65 % to 864.81 points. The ruble also came under pressure. The US dollar rose again to 66 rubles, and the euro - up to 70 rubles. In particular, the US dollar rose by 75 cents - up to 66.095 rubles. The euro strengthened by 1.06 rubles - to 70.437 rubles. |
In fact, the downing of the aircraft Su-24 was the first since the 1950s fighting destruction of the Russian (Soviet) military aircraft by NATO member country.
President V. Putin's Decree of November 28, 2015, “On Measures to Ensure the National Security of the Russian Federation and Protection of Russian Citizens from Criminal and Other Illegal Activities and the Application of Special Economic Measures against the Republic of Turkey” (read - imposing specific sanctions against Turkey) shows what the Kremlin's respond will be to, at first sight, ambiguous (in terms of international standards) Turkey's actions, which after repeated warnings of the Russian side about the violation of its airspace by Russian military aircrafts based in Syria, November 24, 2015 downed a Russian Su-24 bomber.
President V. Putin's Decree, among other things, introduces as follows:
- a ban or restriction on the import into Russia of certain types of food and nonfood products from Turkey;
- a ban or restriction for organizations under the jurisdiction of Turkey, on carrying out certain types of work (services) in the territory of Russia.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin on the 28th of November signed a Decree on Application of Special Economic Measures against Turkey. According to the document, imports from Turkey to the territory of the Russian Federation of certain goods will be limited. In particular, Putin decided to prohibit or restrict on the territory of Russia the activities of organizations under the jurisdiction of Turkey, to stop on January 1, 2016 the visa-free regime, and imposed a ban on charter air transportation between the two countries.
The Decree also introduces a ban for employers, customers of works (services) which are not included in the list determined by the Government of the Russian Federation on the “... involvement from January 1, 2016 on, to implement the employment of workers from among Turkish citizens who are not in employment, and (or ) civil relations with these employers, customers of works (services) as of December 31, 2015.”
The Government of the Russian Federation has been instructed to make a list of the relevant goods, works (services).
Besides, Russian tour operators should stop selling trips to Turkey, and there has been introduced a ban on charter flights between the two countries. In connection with the Russian-Turkish incident, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation said that it stops contacts with Turkey in military and military-technical spheres. According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs S. Lavrov, on January 1, 2016 Russia suspends the visa-free regime with Turkey, which is in force between the two countries.
At first glance it seems that the sanctions of this kind are nothing new (unexpected) to Turkey. That is, such a list of sanctions (and nothing more!) from Russia would be enough under the circumstances.
But do not forget that Putin is a very stubborn and vindictive person. Turkish President R. Erdogan, having publicly humiliated Putin, actually moved into the category of the latter's personal enemies. Shooting down of the Russian military aircraft by the Turkish one, and the subsequent destruction by Syrian Turkmens (Turkish transcription - Turkomans), one of the two helicopters, which flew out to search for the pilots, is a public humiliation, the like of which Putin, I think, has not experienced since his becoming president.
Putin's hysterical reaction to the destruction by Turkish warplanes of the Russian bomber Su-24 is such, that you would think that it was shot down not over the territory of the sovereign Turkey, but at least over Red Square in Moscow. How is it possible: the Air Force of some Turkey, where the Russians go sunbathing, shot down a warplane of the “Great Russia?”
That is, the president of Russia took the incident with the downed over Turkey bomber Su-24 as a personal humiliation, and now he is committed to avenge Ankara first thing. In the martial fervor, Putin without any evidence accused Turkey of collaboration with the ISIS for the illegal purchase of oil.
And the geopolitical ambitions of Russia (Moscow, Kremlin, V. Putin personally) in this case of have finally focused on implementation of the “geostrategy of revenge” against Turkey.
In this regard, Russian President V. Putin's message to the Federal Assembly on 3 December 2015 is rather interesting, as in it Ukraine is not even mentioned in clear, while a significant portion of his speech is devoted to Russia's fight against international terrorism, and where he named the two main enemies of Russia - Turkey and ISIS. At this, V. Putin again called Turkey “accomplice of terrorists” and said that he “will not forgive the betrayal”.
There is reason to believe that one of the most likely options for a global revenge (“geostrategy of revenge”) may become Russia's attempt to create a Kurdish State and that would be hardest hit for Turkey. However, this is quite a massive, very difficult, very long and expensive project, that is, it cannot be implemented quickly. In the meantime, Putin will take revenge demonstratively, on little things, as well as secretly and non-traditionally - where and how he will manage to.
It is exactly under these circumstances, that apart from the above-mentioned (in fact, well-known) Russian sanctions against Turkey, Putin, of course, has in store a number of asymmetric (unconventional and uncivilized) “know-how” measures that he will be able to take, namely:
- Resumption of provocative flights in the Black Sea of strategic aviation airplanes of the Russian Air Force (with nuclear missiles on board, as has already been practiced this year over the English Channel!) when developing their tasks of locking the Black Sea Straits;
- Organization and carrying out of Russia's complex air-naval intelligence operations in the airspace and the Black Sea both, along the northern coast of Turkey, and in the area of the Black Sea Straits;
- Organization and implementation of various kinds of provocations by Russia's Navy ships and civilian vessels in the Black Sea Straits (the Bosporus and the Dardanelles), including through the deliberate violation of the rules of navigation in these and the subsequent accusing Turkey of not complying with the International Maritime Conventions (Montreux, 1936) (the mode of the Black Sea Straits).
- Preparing and carrying out firing by cruise missiles type X-101 from aircrafts of the strategic aviation and by the Kalibr type from Russia's surface ships and submarines from the Mediterranean Sea, and, most likely, from the Black Sea, on the ISIS' objects on the territory of northern regions of Syria for demonstration and provocative purposes (first of all, Turkey and other NATO countries, following the example of the recent launches from the Caspian Sea of Kalibr cruise missiles /about 2 months ago, when the overwhelming majority of the cruise missiles uncontrollably fell on the territory of Iran/ and from strategic Tu-22M3 KR X-101 over the territory of Russia and from the Rostov-on-Don submarine the Kalibr cruise missiles /from 5 to 8 December, 2015/ from the Mediterranean Sea).
- Deliberate incitement of radical Kurdish groups (from among the so-called “irreconcilable” of the military wing of the Kurdistan Workers' Party /PKK/ “People's Defence Forces” by funding, training, arming and providing with intelligence) in order to spread their subversive and terrorist activity and to escalate the situation in the south-eastern provinces of Turkey;
- Organization of provocations and direct (immediate) or hidden (technological) subversive actions at objects of oil and gas infrastructure from Azerbaijan, Iraq and Syria to Turkey, including operations under the cover of radical extremist Kurds or with their involvement.
So today, it is necessary to understand that the criminal Russian regime is not going to stop here. It itself creates, and then on its own uses current “hot spots” - in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria - for testing its newest weapons, learning new tactical methods of warfare and getting by military units, commanders and staffs of combat experience, and maintaining and strengthening its influence in the countries, which resist to it.
“It's a shame” to ignore the real threats from Putin's Russia, and at this also trying to interact with it - the country which has destroyed the European and world order, occupied part of an independent and sovereign European state; with the country which cynically threatens with nuclear weapons, contributing to destabilization in Europe and in the world; the country, not even valuing the lives of its own citizens - is to provoke the escalation of a local (or regional) military conflict into a global world war.
Creating a “coalition” with the terrorists to fight against terrorism - this is insanity, provoking even more aggression and violence. This kind of “coalition” will lead to even more civilian casualties. And attempts to “negotiate with Putin,” encourage the irreversible mechanism of state terrorism in Russia.
Instead of cooperation, the Kremlin should get real and systematic counteracting on all components of the launched by Moscow “hybrid warfare”: politico-military, economic (including energy), financial, legal, information (including cybernetic), and so on. The counteracting must be systematic, comprehensive, well-coordinated, appropriate and most importantly - effective!
As for Putin, no matter how hard he puffs, he is not a world-class player any more. He is just a sharper-bandit, who, posing with puffed-out cheeks before television cameras of sell-out channels, lately has been just bluffing. But this is already known around the world, and we need to drive him away with the filthy broom as far as possible from the civilized world's table!
Russia for a long time had been purposefully and cynically mocking the West's helplessness in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (and before that - in the Russian-Georgian conflict). But, having stumbled on a country that behaved towards it, in fact, in a «Russian style» found no effective methods of influence, and also decided to “mark its position” by the sanctions, realizing at the same time, that this way it not only supports President of the Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but also significantly worsens Russia's positions in the region and in the international markets.
Recently, Turkey significantly beat Putin. And will beat again, and I'm sure - not Turkey alone! After the recent events in the Russian-Turkish relations, with Turkey's leadership's clear and balanced position, he should remember well that “for each Putin there is Erdogan”.
