October 8-9, 2015 experts of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel” took part in the European-American Conference on Transatlantic Cooperation on the topic “Russia's New generation Warfare: Its Implications for the Baltic countries and Poland”.
The organizers of this Conference, which was held at the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania (Vilnius), were the American Research Center (The Potomac Foundation) and the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Lithuania.
The Conference's work was built within the framework of five working sections (sessions), namely: political subversion; proxy violence and the role of special forces; the threat of Russian intervention; the Russian Federation's nuclear posturing; negotiations under duress.
The Conference was attended by leading analysts and experts in the defense and security sphere, representatives of expert, media and academic circles of NATO, Sweden and the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) and Ukraine.
Presentations and discussions at the five sections focused mainly on identification, analysis and assessment of Russia's military threats to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in order to simulate and develop the most rational (adequate to real and projected situation) solutions with minimal resource costs. The main attention was paid to the challenges, risks and threats to the Baltic countries.
In his speech, Lithuania Vice-Minister of Defense Marijus Velička welcomed the participants of the Conference in the Lithuanian land and expressed the hope that the participation of representatives of such a strong expert community in the assessment of threats to the national security of the Baltic States in light of Russia's military aggression against Ukraine, will help to find an answer to the question of ensuring their security today and in the hard-to-predict future.
In his opening speech, a leading expert on international security and military strategy, President of the Potomac Foundation (USA), Dr. Phillip Karber greeted the participants and pointed out the importance of the issues scheduled for consideration and discussion at the forum and added strategic context to the content-richness and focus of the Conference in his keynote speech “Russian-Ukrainian War. Experience and Lessons for NATO and the Baltic States”. His report was structurally systematic, well-reasoned and supported by documents confirming the fact of Russia's preparation and conduct of the occupation and subsequent annexation of the Crimea, and also reflected the peculiarities and nature of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in the Donbas, including in the circumstances and against the background of attempts to implement the Minsk Agreements (“Minsk-1” and “Minsk-2”). It was built on both, personal impressions as a result of repeated visits to the zone of the Anti-Terrorist Operation, and on his own research on the Russian side's strategy and tactics in the “new generation warfare”.
He also urged the participants in their speeches to focus on practical recommendations to counteract a possible Russian aggression against the Baltic countries exactly at the early stage, taking into consideration Ukraine and Georgia's bitter experience.
At the beginning of the Conference in his comments, director of Russian programs of the American Potomac Foundation, Vice President for Research Dr. Philip Petersen analysed in detail the characteristics of the preparation, conduct and lessons of Russia's military aggression against Ukraine, as well as to finding ways to practical adequate response of NATO and the West in general to possible Russia's aggression against the Baltic States in all its manifestations.
Of the nearly 20 speeches and reports that sounded at the Conference within two days (in all five sections), the following speeches (among others) deserved special attention:
Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Lithuanian Parliament, Professor Benediktas Juodka (“Times of Rethinking, Redefining and Redeployment: Lessons Learned for the Future”);
Director of Strategic Communication Department of Lithuanian Armed Forces Colonel Saulius Guzevičius (“Information Warfare in Current Conditions”);
Representative of NATO Headquarters Diego Ruiz-Palmer (“Building Consensus to Confront Hybrid Threats”);
Representatives of the National Center for Strategic Studies /Poland/ Wojciech Zalewski and of the Potomac Foundation /USA/ Nicholas Myers (“Russian Military Options in the Baltic Region”);
Representative of the American Research Center “RAND Corporation” Peter Wilson (“Will a NATO “Cool War” with Russia “Blow Hot?”).
Representative of the Applied Physics Laboratory at Johns Hopkins University in the United States Mike Frankel (“Russian Doctrine Reliance on Tactical Nuclear Forces”);
Director of Russian programs of the American Potomac Foundation, Vice-President of Research Dr. Phillip Petersen (“Lessons from Russian “Ceasefires” in Ukraine”) and others.
Separately, it should be emphasized that the experts and analysts of the American Research Potomac Foundation provided quite a comprehensive military-political assessment of the current situation in Ukraine and around it, and came to the conclusion that the United States play a leading role and occupy a prominent place in the search for solutions of the Russia- Ukraine conflict.
Special attention and clear interest was aroused by speeches of representatives of the Ukrainian side, namely: of the Commander of the Special Operation Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Kryvonis (“The Role of Special Forces in Combating Insurgency”) and of Vice-President of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel” PhD in Military Sciences, Associate Professor, Lieutenant-General Yuriy Radkovets (“Russian Military Options in the Baltic States — in Light of their Experience in Ukraine”). This could be explained by the practical experience of the Ukrainian side in more than eighteen months of counteracting Russia's military aggression against Ukraine, and the grounded analysis, assessments and forecasts of possible variants of Russia's aggression against the Baltic States and Poland.
Discussions on specific topical issues continued between the experts both, in the course of the planned discussion of speeches, and on the sidelines during the Conference breaks.
At the end of the Conference the President of the Potomac Foundation (USA), Dr. Phillip Karber thanked all participants in the Euro-American Conference on Transatlantic Cooperation for work and stressed the need to begin now to prepare draft operational issues for the next Conference in 2016. He paid special attention to maintaining the relevance of the study of military and political (political-diplomatic, economic, security) and purely military issues of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, against the background of realization /non-realization of the whole complex of tasks, determined by the Minsk Agreements.
In his closing remarks, Vice-Minister of Defense of Lithuania Marijus Velička thanked the leadership of the American Potomac Foundation for participation in the organization of the Euro-American Workshop in Lithuania, as well as the conference participants for their active work. Besides, he did not rule out the possibility of converting the format of the forum into an annual conference and conducting it either in Lithuania or in one of the Baltic countries in turn.
