Oleksandr Lebid, Military and Political Expert
Far behind are the unusually hot September days and with them went into the history important international events that took place this month in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR). In particular, one after another, there have been held the Summit of the “Big Twenty” (G20) on 4-5 September 2016, in the Chinese city of Hangzhou and the session of the Summits of ASEAN member countries and of countries-dialogue partners of the Organization on 8-9 September, 2016, in the capital of Laos, Vientiane. The real role of these high-level meetings in the development of international relations will be comprehended with time. However, today it can be argued that the development of the world's military and political situation will soon be determined by the course of the events and decisions that marked these activities. At this, despite the considerable remoteness of the place of the two summits from Ukraine, meetings in Hangzhou and Vientiane will really have an impact on the development of events around our country.
 Beijing is trying to be more involved in the “global chains of added value”, in particular in the phases of the high-tech research, development work and design process, as well as in after-sales services |
 Chinise economy is considered the world's second largest after the USA |
The matter is that China, whose economy is considered the world's second largest after the United States' one, on the sidelines of Asian Summits made considerable efforts to create conditions for equal US-China strategic dialogue, and in general to transform relations with leading countries of the world.
In accordance with China's position, changes in such relationships should ensure China's entry into the global economy on equal terms with developed countries. Assessing the current level of the Chinese industry, Beijing is trying to be more involved in the “global chains of added value”, in particular in the phases of the high-tech research, development work and design process, as well as in after-sales services. According to this position, at the G20 Summit China called for the construction of an innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive world economy. In solving such global problems, China is based on the geo-economic strategy, within the framework of which it expects to win the support of Asian developing countries, and to get an access to world goods and technologies markets.
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Most important for China is embodiment of the “One Belt and One Road” geo-economic initiative, bringing together the projects of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the “21st Century Maritime Silk Route Economic Belt”. The initiative announced in 2013, is on the list of important tasks of the Chinese government and provides for formation of a new model of China's international cooperation with countries of the Eurasian continent. Therefore, China hopes to increase its role in international economic cooperation and to strengthen ties with countries of the continent in the sphere of science, culture and education.
It should be noted that the implementation of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” project goes beyond the traditional concept of development solely of land means of communication. Recently, the Chinese side attaches great importance to the development of air links in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Today, China has signed with all the Central Asian countries agreements on air communication, formally creating the basis for the integration of the regional system of air service. Besides, China assists to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia in modernization of the aviation infrastructure and improvement of air transport safety standards. So China continues developing Eurasian logistical ways to simplify its communications with the European Union.
For Ukraine in this respect more urgent becomes the question of its integration into the ground and air routes of communication between Europe and Asia. Otherwise, because of the imperfection of the national infrastructure, and above all — because of the uncertainty on the prospects of its development, we will remain on the sidelines of logistic ways, formation of which is coming to the final stage.
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In the context of economic cooperation with Asia-Pacific countries, Beijing pays special attention to the countries of Southeast Asia. Within the framework of preparation for China's participation in Summits with ASEAN, the PRC's Foreign Ministry said that the development of good-neighborly relations with member countries of the Organization belongs to the priorities of Beijing's regional foreign policy.
 The 13th China-ASEAN Fair on 11-14 September 2016 in Nanning (the administrative capital of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous District of China) |
As a result of ASEAN-China Summit, the participants signed a General Joint Statement and a Joint Statement on Introduction in the South China Sea of a Code of Conduct for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (applies to ships of the Navy and military aircraft of participating countries). According to the documents, the participants of the event expressed their willingness to comply with international legal standards to ensure freedom of navigation and air travel in the South China Sea.
The practical content of cooperation between China and countries in Southeast Asia was the holding on 11-14 September 2016 in Nanning (the administrative capital of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous District of China) of the 13th China-ASEAN Fair. During the event, which was attended by about 2.5 thousand companies from 29 countries (ASEAN countries, India, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and so on), there was China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit.
In this way, China is trying to form out of Asia-Pacific countries a sort of a “club of fans of Beijing”, which will strengthen the international position of the Chinese side and will increase China's weight in the development of the US-China strategic dialogue.
Of course, the PRC's desire to ensure great possibilities in the global economy for further economic growth, leads to contradictions with developed countries. In particular, the intentions to create an East Asian Community, which should include the ASEAN countries, China, Japan and Republic of Korea constitute a threat to allied relations between the USA and Japan with South Korea. Besides, China's growing territorial claims to neighboring countries with the simultaneous expansion in other regions of the world, especially in Africa, are negatively perceived by the West.
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The PRC's ambitious steps to increase its role in international economic relations have complicated the process of normalization of the US-China strategic dialogue and the United States' shifting (in 2012) the focus in international relations onto the development of cooperation with Asia Pacific countries. As an alternative to cooperation between Asia-Pacific countries and China, the United States are implementing the project of Trans-Pacific cooperation, which in general can be more successful in case if the countries of the region get an access to innovative technologies.
 The President of China Xi Jinping |
At the same time, the analysis of the position of the current Chinese leadership leads to the conclusion that China will increase the rigidity of its foreign policy to protect its state interests. Having been elected the President of China in 2013, Xi Jinping said that China would not give up its “...legitimate rights and interests”. According to him, China will not allow “...limitation of sovereignty, security and the interests of the development of the state”. This attitude of the Chinese leadership has paved the way for strengthening of nationalist aggression in the implementation of foreign policy. This position of the Chinese leadership in the approach to the foreign policy has led to the incident in a Chinese airport during the arrival of the US President B. Obama to attend the Summit of G20. According to various expert estimates, such an incident is characteristic of a country having great economic and political potential, but which has not yet been able to effectively implement it. In general, in recent years in China's international activity one can see a more cautious attitude towards the collective West and trying in resolving contentious questions with it to use the Sino-Russian cooperation.
Besides, despite its desire to take a global leadership, China is not ready to lead a multifaceted responsible international policy. First of all, this is confirmed by China's position of non-interference in international and regional conflicts. In this context, of particular concern is the lack of China's estimate of Russia's military aggression against Ukraine.
This position of the Chinese side creates conditions for situational cooperation between China and the Russian Federation, which, in addition to obtaining a direct economic benefit, is used by Beijing to put pressure on the West in controversial issues. In turn, Russia for a year and in particular during the Asian Summits did everything possible to strengthen the Russian vector of the Chinese foreign policy. So, now the main directions of the Chinese-Russian cooperation are as follows:
cooperation in the sphere of the economy, including energy and development of infrastructure, in particular, implementation of the “Power of Siberia” Pipeline Project, Chinese companies' participation in the development of the Russian Far East, modernization of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the Baikal-Amur Railway, as well as Chinese investments into the development of the Russian infrastructure;
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 Bilateral political contacts: Sino-Russian consultations |
bilateral political contacts. At the invitation of the Chinese side, on 7-9 September 2016, the Speaker of the RF Council V. Matvienko visited China on a working visit. The visit had no practical results, but cooperation in bilateral and international (UN, BRICS, and SCO) formats, as well as the possibility of increasing Chinese investment in the Russian economy were discussed with the Chinese leadership. Also, in mid-September 2016, there was the 12th round of the Sino-Russian consultations on strategic security and the 3rd meeting of the Sino-Russian mechanism in the sphere of law enforcement and security, which was attended by the Russian Security Council Secretary N. Patrushev;
 The “Sea Cooperation-2016” exercises on 12-19 September 2016 |
military and military-technical cooperation in which China is interested in obtaining new Russian defence technologies and advanced methods of military training to act in special circumstances. At the “Army 2016” international military-technical forum, held in early September 2016 in the town of Kubinka (Moscow region), the Chinese delegation expressed interest in the training of their representatives at the International Special Forces Training Centre in Chechnya. The sides continue demonstrating close cooperation between Navies of China and Russia. During the “Sea Cooperation-2016” exercises on 12-19 September 2016, the Chinese and Russians mastered joint actions of their ships and coherence of actions. Based on the composition of the participants and training issues, the Chinese side is interested in Russia's experience in organizing anti-submarine defence and amphibious operations.
 In the first half of September 2016, in the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea there was the first official group of tourists from China |
Despite the fact that Russia is inferior in the scale of China's cooperation with developed countries, Beijing has retained pragmatism in Sino-Russian relations in the situation of international sanctions against the Russian Federation. In particular, in the first half of September 2016, in the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea there was the first official group of tourists from China, whose visit was organized on the basis of an agreement between China and Russia on visa-free border crossings. It is expected that in November and December of this year, the Crimea will be visited by two groups of Chinese tourists.
Unfortunately, this situation will continue until the official Beijing gets real arguments for the development of a systematic and cost-effective cooperation with Ukraine. Only with such arguments, China will dare to condemn Russia's military aggression against our country and to limit the scope of cooperation with Russia. For example, China needs to realize that Ukraine can be a reliable partner in the implementation of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” Project and a really “powerful transportation hub” on China's way to the European Union.
Useful can also be Georgia's experience in the introduction of free trade with China, the negotiations on which were completed on September 13, 2016. It is expected that this agreement on free trade will start working in the middle of 2017, and will create conditions for tax-free exports of Georgian products to China. One way or another, the Chinese leadership on the path to global leadership will have to determine its position on Russia's aggression against Ukraine. But what arguments in favor of support to Ukraine in this conflict will be used by the official Beijing — will depend largely on our efforts.
