What processes and key events characterize the domestic political and security situation in Afghanistan today? The analysis of events in the country in May and early June (see the Appendix) shows — the situation in Afghanistan is extremely tense, unstable, and there are no prospects for its fundamental improvement in the nearest future. The cheerful picture offered by the Official Kabul and its western allies disagrees with reality.
In other words, Afghanistan is now at a stage of dramatic change in the situation. “Taliban”'s militias continue so far secretly, but consistently to concentrate on the significant parts of the country. It is possible that it could be a scenario due to which, at the time, the situation in Iraq collapsed — the seizure of a large city, after which the current government simply will start “falling apart.” At this, there should be no illusions about the combat capability of the Afghan army and police. Even 10 times surpassing the Taliban in number: 300 thousand against 30, the government forces are totally incapable to resist them in straight (open) combat actions.
Taliban's militias continue so far secretly, but consistently to concentrate on the significant parts of the country
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The aforementioned Iraqi scenario in Afghanistan is even more possible than in Iraq. It is possible that there will be a mirror repetition of the 1990s, when the emirate of the Taliban was opposed only by Ahmad Shah Massoud, and then only with great difficulty. Today, “Taliban”'s positions look much more serious, and the saturation of the entire region with militants, various terrorist groups and weapons will allow the "Taliban" to quickly increase their numbers to nearly any desired number of them.
So, today the main processes and key events determining the domestic political and hence security situation in Afghanistan are as follows:
- Continuation of the internal conflict between the pro-governmental political forces and the opposition on key issues of the country's development, financial and economic issues and security problems of Afghanistan;
- Activation (according to some other sources — conclusion) of the “Taliban” movement for another (this time — massive) attack against government offices in the main cities, districts and provinces, military garrisons of government forces, military bases and other facilities of the US and NATO stabilization forces throughout the country;
- The increased presence of various terrorist and extremist groups in the country, as well as the reorientation of a number of units of the Movement “Tehreek-e-Taliban” (TT), the basis of which almost 100 % are Pashtuns, from their spiritual leader and almost the Prophet's governor on the Earth — Mulla Omar, to the Emir of the just proclaimed “Islamic State of Khorasan” (ISK) — Abdul Rauf Khadim (according to the Taliban, “...Abdul Rauf dies as a traitor, and it was not a missile from a US drone that struck him recently, but Mullah Omar himself fairly punished the traitor“).
The newly created structure ISK — actually a branch of ISIL ("Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant") is little known in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and parts of Central Asia.
At the same time, most leaders of TT complain about the open betrayal of the leaders of these groups (turncoats), consider them abjurers from the basic rules of conduct of the Pashtuns — “Pashtunwali.” For example, many other leaders of the Taliban troops (and they still keep the majority) once again expressed their loyalty to their leader — Mullah Omar, having ordered their troops to be in tough confrontation with the traitors of the ISK in all the territories controlled by the grouping.
| The militia of the grouping “Marg” have sworn to protect their land from the enemies of Afghanistan, arms in hand |
And they are clearly not alone in their desire to openly resist the militants of the IS. In some Afghan provinces, Pashtuns began to unite against the possible threat posed by ISK/IS, into the so-called “resistance forces”. Thus, in the northern Afghan province of Balkh, militias' units called “Marg” (”Death”) are being formed. The militia of the grouping “Marg” have sworn to protect their land from the enemies of Afghanistan, arms in hand.
In fact, now we are witnessing the beginning of a new confrontation between the newly emerging form of terrorism — “The Islamic State of Khorasan” and Pashtun militant groups of “Tehreek-e-Taliban” (remaining faithful to Mullah Omar). Whether such a confrontation will be active or not, depends on the tasks which financial sponsors of the “global jihad” (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and others) will set to field commanders. Judging by the fact that the internal situation in Afghanistan continues to change with the ever increasing speed, the results of serious actions on both sides won't take long to be seen.
However, it is impossible not to notice the emergence of a new trend. Young Taliban, go farther and farther away from the so-called “Pashtunwali” Code and now financial and material components mean much more to them than the precepts of their ancestors do.
- Preserving the reduced military presence of the USA and NATO in Afghanistan after the end of training of the local army and security forces by instructors from the Alliance.
| At the moment, there are 10,000 US troops and 3,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan |
At the moment, there are 10,000 US troops and 3,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan. According to the US plans, by the end of 2015 in the country should stay 5,000 US troops, by the end of 2016 all foreign troops should be withdrawn from the country. At the same time, the Commander of the Coalition forces in Afghanistan, the US General John Campbell has said that NATO member states plan to establish a military base in Kabul on a constant basis.
At this, the President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani in March 2015 supported the extension of the time of the US troops' presence in the country. According to him, the majority of citizens are in need of further presence of US and NATO troops, and allegations that Afghans are opposed to this are not true.
For reference: The troops of the Western Coalition have been in Afghanistan since 2001. According to different sources, during this time 3,500 foreign military servicemen (about 2.2 thousand Americans included) have been killed.
- Cessation of military transit to Afghanistan/from Afghanistan through the territory of the Russian Federation, in accordance with Russia's recent decision to stop the transit of US/NATO's weapons and military equipment to Afghanistan, and from it.
According to the recent statement of a representative of the Pentagon: “... neither the working with us on a contract commercial carriers, nor military aircrafts have been going or flying through Russia.” According to him, the United States ensure logistics support to military operations in Afghanistan, using a number of other transport routes, including the land routes through Pakistan, as well as others — combined — options. At the same time, he clarified that the so-called “Northern Distribution Network” “... remains an effective transport option”, covering a lot of different routes, including those that do not pass through Russia.
For reference: In late 2014, the USA completed the military mission in Afghanistan, and withdrew the bulk of its military contingent from there. In 2011, its number reached 101 thousand people. At the moment less than 10,000 US troops are deployed in Afghanistan.
Under the previous arrangements, personnel of the US Armed Forces and their cargoes used to be transported through the Russian sky. Besides, Russia had been providing the USA with an opportunity to transport military supplies across its territory by land transport.
May 15 this year, the RF Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev signed the Russian Government's Decision annulling a number of previous legal acts relating to the organization of transit to and from Afghanistan.
Military transit to Afghanistan/from Afghanistan through the territory of the Russian Federation
- The threatening growth of the trend for a considerable increase (expansion) of areas under opium poppy in Afghanistan.
The Afghan drug-expansion threatens to lead many post-Soviet states, including the Central Asian republics, to political instability. Such a conclusion was made by participants of the International Conference on the Prevention of Drugs Threats, was held in Dushanbe on May 27 this year. A day earlier, the capital of Tajikistan hosted a meeting of heads of departments to combat drugs in member countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
The Afghan drug-expansion threatens to lead many states to political instability
For reference: Over the past 14 years, the acreage of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has increased by almost a third. According to international experts, today poppy plantations in Afghanistan occupy 224,000 hectares. As a result, drug cartels began to obtain great amounts of raw material for the production of heroin. The consequence of the increase in the cultivation of opium poppy is the increase in the yield of this crop by almost 20 %, due to which fact the experts are beating the alarm.
At the same time, the Director of the Drug Control Agency under the President of Tajikistan R. Nazarzoda stresses other issues: “We are alarmed by the appearance in the provinces of Kandahar and Helmand of new varieties of opium poppy seeds — more resistant to drought, fast ripening and increasing the yield”. Besides, he pointed out that the increase in drug production in Afghanistan is directly linked to the deteriorating of the military and political situation in the country. Moreover, tensions are rising near the territory of Central Asia (CA). And this is creating conditions for criminal groups to organize their warehouses and laboratories near the border line.
The growth of drug production activates the development of the network for redistribution of opiates to final consumers. Through the countries of Central Asia there goes the so-called “northern route” of the Afghan drug trafficking. It goes from Afghanistan to Central Asia, and from there to cities in Russia, representatives of the Federal Drug Control Service of the Russian Federation report.
| All the opposing forces are armed with the means to combat air targets |
Instability and insecurity persists in the areas of the main international airports and airfields of Afghanistan — Kabul, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, Kandahar and others. Apart from carrying out of terrorist attacks against US and NATO forces, this can be explained by the strengthening of attention of militias of “Taliban” and other terrorist groups to control over them both to arrange transportation of drugs through them, and to ensure the supply of their troops with drugs when the expected military confrontation begins. It should be noted that all the opposing forces are armed with the means to combat air targets, namely, ZU and ZPU, as well as a wide range of man-portable air defense systems of both, Western and Iranian, Chinese, as well as Russian (former Soviet ) production.
Due to the recent events in Afghanistan, special attention should be paid to the possible destabilization of the situation in Central Asia and, above all, on Afghanistan's borders with Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
According to the Russian President's Special Representative for Afghanistan Z. Kabulov, the noticed bunching-up of extremist groups in northern Afghanistan may attempt to break into the territory of neighboring countries. He also informed on the formation in a few northern Afghan provinces of centers for militants and two foci of especially increased activity of rebel forces, the first of which, according to him, is concentrated in the district of Badakhshan and Kunduz provinces, the second is to the west, in the provinces of Badghis and Faryab.
Thus, the destabilization of the situation in the Afghan province of Faryab, which borders with Turkmenistan, is first of all due to the attempt to cool the enthusiasm of the Turkmen authorities, who wished to compete with Qatar gas (Qatar finances local militant groups purely because of the peculiarities of its commercial projects in the region).
If we talk about the situation on the border with Uzbekistan, lately there have not been noticed any serious movements of militias, new groups of militants have not been observed.
As for Tajikistan, where the border is much more extended and inaccessible, we can't speak confidently about concentration or absence of fighters there. But it is known that the fighters on the Afghanistan's side are mainly interested only in transportation of drugs. In this case, the movement is noticed of separate militant groups along the border, and their crossing the border into Tajikistan to escort drug convoys. At this, they perform somewhat different tasks.
In general, according to international experts, militia's formations in Afghanistan are quite mixed. Among the ethnic groups, which include Taliban militants, IS and some other groups, there are Tajiks, Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Arabs, people from the North Caucasus and Uighurs.
Among the ethnic groups, which include Taliban militants, IS and some other groups,
there are Tajiks, Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Arabs, people from the North Caucasus and Uighurs
So, as of today, the domestic political and security situation in Afghanistan is extremely tense, unstable, little-controlled, and one can't see any prospects for its radical improvement in the nearest future. It is possible that further development of the situation in the country can repeat the "Iraqi scenario", after which the current government will simply “fall apart.”
The threatening deterioration of the situation in the country is being complicated by the presence and expansion of the confrontation of various terrorist and extremist groups in the country and, above all, of the “Islamic State of Khorasan” — actually a branch of the Islamic State, which is in force confrontation with both, the army and security forces of the country, and groups of militants from the movement “Taliban.”
Preserving even of a reduced military presence of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan today is a stabilizing factor for both, the country's government, and on the borders of Afghanistan with Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Appendix
Major terrorist attacks and operations in Afghanistan during the period of May 13, 2002-June 2, 2015
Evening of May 13 insurgents from “Taliban” attacked the hotel “Park Palace” in Kabul, popular with foreigners. Among the killed there were nine foreigners (seven women and two men), including citizens of the USA, India and Italy, as well as five citizens of Afghanistan. The representative of the “Taliban” in an email sent to the media confirmed that the militants of the movement “Taliban” had claimed responsibility for the attack.
May 17 in Kabul, near the international airport there thundered a powerful explosion. The attack killed three people, including a foreigner, at least 20 people were injured. The suicide bomber rammed a car bomb into a convoy of NATO forces and sent the car stuffed with explosives into the car of the EU Police Mission in Afghanistan. The explosion took place 200 meters from the entrance to the main airport of Kabul. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by the militants of “Taliban.”
May 25, hundreds of fighters of “Taliban” attacked a military base of the Afghan National Army in Nawzad District (southern province of Helmand) and several police checkpoints. As a result of the fighting, according to official data, the security forces lost 26 men killed (19 police officers and 7 soldiers). At the seized checkpoints, the "Taliban" militants captured weapons and ammunition and blocked the roads leading to Nawzad.
May 27 in Kabul, militants seized a hotel in the diplomatic quarter. A group of militants stormed the guesthouse in the Wazir Akbar Khan District. This area is a place of residence and work of wealthy people and foreigners in the Afghan capital. There are also government buildings, embassies and Kabul International Airport there .
May 31-June 1, intense fighting between “Taliban” militants and the IS took place in the Afghan provinces of Farah and Nangarhar. Both the sides suffered losses, but announce their victories. Local authorities confirmed that in Khaki Safed District of Farah province, the "Taliban" actually made a series of attacks against the positions of the IS and actually drove them to the nearby Anardara District. During the fighting, the IS militants lost 13 men killed and 12 seriously injured. Some radical Islamists surrendered to the "Taliban", more than 30 “repented” and returned to the ranks of the “Taliban” (a significant part of the supporters of the “Islamic State” in Afghanistan are former "Taliban", which makes the contact between them easier).
Fighting between "Taliban" and IS.
Red marked those provinces of Afghanistan, where armed clashes are fixed
May 31-June 1, the Armed Forces of Afghanistan carried out special operations in the provinces of Kandahar, Zabul, Uruzgan, Kunduz, Badghis and Badakhshan. As part of the special operations 61 militants were killed, at least 72 were wounded. The military also managed to neutralize nine different homemade explosive devices.
Late in the evening of 1 June in the northern Afghan province of Balkh, a group of militants killed 9 workers of a non-governmental humanitarian organization and 2 guards collaborating with it.
The tragedy occurred on the territory of Zari District. The aim of the attack of the militias was the building of the subdivision of the Czech NGO “People in Need”, specializing in the promotion of development projects, primarily in the agricultural sector. Having shot dead the guards, the gunmen entered the building, and dealt with the organization's employees.
June 2, the Afghan National Police, with the support of other law enforcement agencies, carried out a series of sweeps in the provinces of Takhar, Kunduz, Badakhshan, Balkh, Farah, Kunar, Baghlan, Kandahar and Paktika. According to the results of the operations, law enforcement agencies killed 43 militants and captured some ammunition for various types of light and heavy weapons. Besides, the law enforcement officers found out and defused 10 explosive devices laid by militants in Kunar, Balkh, Uruzgan, Wardak, Farah, Nimroz and Helmand provinces.
