The Putin regime's armed aggression against Ukraine has led to qualitative changes in the geopolitical situation in the world, namely the restoration of the “Cold War” between Russia and the West at the level of the times of the former USSR and even sharper. In this regard, the NATO leadership has launched a series of actions aimed at strengthening Europe's security against military threats from the Russian Federation.
Thus, according to the decisions of the Welsh (September 2014) and Warsaw (July 2016) summits of NATO, the strategic concept of the Alliance was changed to the task of deterring a possible military invasion from the Eastern direction, and some steps were taken to improve the infrastructure and strengthen military capabilities of the North Atlantic Alliance in Europe.
First of all, such steps included: modernizing NATO's combat control system; enhancement of the Alliance's ability to respond promptly in a time of crisis, including Russia's aggressive actions with elements of “hybrid” wars; deployment of NATO military units on most dangerous directions — in the Baltic and Black Sea regions; restoration of the capabilities of a rapid build-up of the Alliance's troops on the European theatre by deploying the US military units and formations from the continental United States.
In particular, in this aspect, in recent years have been deployed as follow:
- the headquarters of the Multinational Corps “North-East” (in Szczecin, Poland; part of the NATO Joint Sub-Regional Command “North-East”; includes three mechanized/motorized divisions of Poland, Germany and Denmark);
- the headquarters of the Multinational Division “South-East” (in Bucharest, Romania; is part of the NATO Joint Sub-Regional Command “South-East”; includes two brigades of Romania and Bulgaria);
- four Multinational Battlegroups in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia;
- the US Army Armored Brigade Combat Team in Poland (HQ — in Elblag, Poland; on a rotational basis) and the US Army Combat Aviation Brigade in Germany, as well as a brigade set (according to some estimates — up to four brigade sets) of military equipment in warehouses in Germany and Belgium;
- NATO Air Policing mission in the Black Sea region headed by the UK Royal Air Force with a deployment in Romania (tasked to strengthen air defense capabilities of Romania and Bulgaria); a similar NATO Air Policing mission deployed in the Baltic region.
| Deployment of the four Multinational Battlegroups in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia |
Besides, the size of the NATO Response Force has been tripled — up to 40,000 servicemen. A decision has also been made to declare the Initial Operational Capability of the US/NATO Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) in Europe, which includes such a system in Romania (24 anti-ballistic missile SM-3 Block IB for intercepting mid-range ballistic missiles) and US/NATO warships with the “Aegis” BMD systems in the Mediterranean and Black Seas.
| Deployment of the US/NATO Ballistic Missile Defence in Europe |
Along with this, the decision of the NATO Defence Ministers Meeting in June 2018, provides for (by 2020):
- to create a two new NATO command structures in Norfolk (Virginia, USA) and in Ulm (Germany) to support the deployment of US troops and their logistics from the continental United States to Europe in case of a military conflict;
- to activate a NATO Readiness Initiative. The Alliance's troops will have 30 mechanized battalions, 30 air squadrons and 30 combat vessels ready for combat use in the shortest possible time.
In turn, in May 2018, the US leadership decided to restore the Second Fleet of the US Navy, which was deactivated in 2011. The zone of responsibility of the Fleet will include the Northern Atlantic and the US East Coast. In the times of the Soviet Union, the main task of the Second Fleet of the US Navy was to counter the Northern Fleet of the USSR and ensure the deployment of American troops to Europe through Atlantic.
| Symmetrically to Russia's actions, the USA and NATO have intensified operational and combat trainings |
At the same time, symmetrically to Russia's actions, the United States and NATO have intensified operational and combat trainings/exercises in the Euro-Atlantic zone and in the Baltic and Black Sea regions, with the development of plans to repel the RF's armed aggression. The main elements of these trainings/exercises include: deployment of headquarters, command and control systems; organization of territorial defense; bringing the NATO Response Force into operational areas; deployment of American troops from the continental United States to Europe; defense and counter-offensive operations. In the past year 2017, the most important of these trainings/exercises were:
- in the Baltic region — “Bison Drawsko” (January) in Poland; “Spring Storm” (May) in Estonia; “Saber Strike” (May) in Latvia; “Steadfast Cobalt” (May–June) in Lithuania; “Baltops” (June) in the territorial waters of Germany, Poland, Estonia, Sweden and Finland; “Dragon” (September) in Poland; “Silver Arrow” (October) in Latvia;
- in the Black Sea region — “Sea Shield” (February) and “Poseidon” (March) in the western part of the Black Sea; “Noble Jump” (May) in Romania, Bulgaria and Greece; “Sea Breeze” (July) and “Rapid Trident” (September) in Ukraine; “Noble Partner” (August) and “Agile Spirit” (September) in Georgia.
A series of similar exercises is held in the current 2018 year. In particular, since the beginning of the year, the most illustrative were:
- “Atlantic Resolve” operation (training) of the US Armed Forces — to master practical deployment of US troops from the continental United States to Europe. In the operation “Atlantic Resolve” in May of this year the technical equipment and personnel of the 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team from the 1st Cavalry Division of the US Army, which was supposed to replace the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team from the 1st Infantry Division of the US Army, were transferred to Poland. The deployment of the personnel was carried out by aircraft of military transport aviation, while the equipment — by three transport vessels through the port of Antwerp in Belgium. In total, about 3,500 servicemen, 87 “Abrams” tanks, 18 “Paladin” self-propelled howitzers, 125 “Bradley” infantry fighting vehicles, as well as other equipment were transferred;
| “Atlantic Resolve” operation of the US Armed Forces | |
- US Army-led “Saber Strike” exercise — with the task to protect the Baltic States and Poland from the RF's attack. Exercise were held on June 3–15 with the participation of about 18,000 servicemen from 19 NATO and partner countries including the United States, Britain, Germany, Canada, Norway, Italy, Spain, Denmark, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovenia and Albania.
In fact, the “Saber Strike” exercise is symmetrical to the “West” series SCPE of the Armed Forces of Russia and Belarus. Proceeding from this, “Saber Strike” includes two main episodes, namely, repulsing an offensive by Russian troops through the so-called Suwalki Gap from the territory of Belarus in the direction of Kaliningrad region of Russia, and counter-attack with forced crossing of the Neman River (at some point it flows along the border between Russia and Lithuania).
Features of the exercise include partial deployment of the Multinational Corps “North-East” in Poland, strengthening the strategic nuclear component of the US Armed Forces in Europe by redeployment of strategic bombers B-52H and B-1B to the Fairford airbase in the UK, and active intelligence of the Russia's forces in the Baltic region.
As a rule, along with the “Saber Strike” exercise, there are also a number of other operational and combat training activities of the Alliance, individual Allies and their partners. In particular, this year, among such events were international exercise “Summer Shield XV” in Latvia and international competitions “Strong Europe Tank Challenge 2018” in Germany (with participation of a Ukrainian tank unit with tanks T-84).
| US Army-led “Saber Strike 2018” exercise |
The aforementioned United States and NATO's measures are causing the aggressive rhetoric of Moscow, which, contrary to the obvious facts, is trying to shift to them the responsibility for the increasing military tension in Europe and, more generally, in the world. Thus, Russian politicians and media have accused Washington and Brussels of “working out a plan of attack on Russia” and “purposeful exacerbation of the situation on the eve of the World Cup in Russia to thwart it”.
Besides, rumors are being spread about Ukraine's alleged preparation for military actions to regain control over the “DPR” and “LPR”, planned to distract Russia's attention from NATO's “Saber Strike”. At this, the Russian leadership openly threatens Ukraine, in fact confirming its participation in the armed conflict in the Donbas. Thus, in the words of the RF President V. Putin during the direct line on June 7, 2018, “it will have very serious consequences for Ukrainian statehood” in case of an attack on “DPR” and “LPR”, which are supported by Russia.
All this is backed up by Russia's next steps to demonstrate military power. In June, 2018 in the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces, including in the occupied Crimea, a series of exercises started, involving motorized, tank, airborne and aviation units. In particular, on June 6–8, 2018, in the occupied Crimea were conducted large scale trainings of the RF Armed Forces, involving about 6,000 servicemen, 100 aircrafts and helicopters (including Su-30SM and Su-34), S-400 air defense systems and “Bal” and “Bastion” coastal defense systems. During the trainings, for the first time since the Russian occupation of the Peninsula, real launches of air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles were carried out. In fact, the training in the Crimea has become Russia's answer to NATO's “Saber Strike” exercise.
| In June, 2018 a series of exercises started in the Southern MD of the RF Armed Forces, including in the occupied Crimea |
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On the whole, the facts presented show further growth of the conflict potential in relations between Russia and the United States and NATO, which is accompanied by an increase in military confrontation between the parties. At this, the main areas of their military activity are the Baltic and Black Sea regions, and this directly affects Ukraine.
We should also emphasize the unity of NATO on major issues related to ensuring Euro-Atlantic security, despite some disagreements between the USA and European Allies over the defence spending. In this regard, NATO remains the most powerful military force in the world and the main deterrent to Moscow's neo-imperial ambitions.
