The answer to Russia's aggression or the political move in the electoral struggle for the most influential office in Ukraine?
From the very beginning of the publication of information on the possibility of introducing martial law in Ukraine, both, inside the country and abroad, there began a discussion about the main motive for its introduction:
- The need to counteract the Russian aggression, since Russia has concentrated on Ukraine's borders significant military forces capable of carrying out ground offensive operations?
- The approaching presidential election in Ukraine, since the introduction of martial law can be used during the preparation for the elections, which will allow the acting President of Ukraine to appeal to the need to protect the country, and not to economic achievements and reforms that have not fully met the expectations of the population?
The procedure for approving the Decree of the President of Ukraine on martial law demonstrated that the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has no confidence in President Poroshenko and that not all political forces are ready to cooperate with him, even if he explains his actions by the threat of Russia's invasion.
The Verkhovna Rada for a long time could not agree to the conditions of the President and eventually made him go to significant concessions:
- instead of the whole territory of Ukraine, martial law will be introduced only in 10 regions bordering on Russia and on the unrecognized Trans-Dniester Moldavian Republic, and in those with an access to the sea;
- also martial law will be introduced for 30 days instead of the planned 60 and will be applied in full only if Russia starts a ground offensive operation on the territory of Ukraine.
It becomes increasingly apparent that the future elections of the President of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Parliament are dominant in decision making of representatives of political forces in the legislative and executive branches of power.
This situation creates preconditions and opportunities for external geopolitical players to significantly influence the processes in Ukraine.
As of today, regardless of the motivations of political players, it can be said with certainty that neither party has gained any additional benefits at the start of the election campaign, except for the fact that the wave of information on martial law has overcome some of the scandalous moments of the budget process and uncertainty with getting Tomos for the Ukrainian church.
If nothing else, the introduction of martial law in a limited format provides a good opportunity to conduct staff training on both the transition to a full-fledged martial law of the regional administrations and other authorities, as well as the involvement of the territorial defense units that are in the state of formation.
We should point out the high stress resistance of the Ukrainian society and its high mobilization readiness, for which it is still necessary to deploy the appropriate infrastructure.
