Yuriy Radkovets
September 5, 2016, the Russian Federation begins the Strategic Command Post Exercises (SCPE) “Caucasus-2016”, the active phase of which will be September 5-10 in the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation Armed Forces, and practically — on the Ukrainian direction. The Russian Black Sea Fleet will participate in the Exercises in full strength.
Taking into consideration Putin's Russia's continuing armed aggression against Ukraine in the Donbas and intensification of Moscow's provocative anti-Ukrainian activities in the Crimea, the military exercises of such content and direction increase significantly the risk of Russia's large-scale military invasion of our State.
Thus, under V. Putin's order, in preparation for the SCPE “Caucasus-2016”, during the unannounced inspection of troops (forces) of the Southern, with participation also of the Western and Central Military District s of the Russian Armed Forces (August 25-31, 2016), in the occupied territory of the Crimea and in some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as along the border with Ukraine, a powerful group of Russian-terrorist troops (forces)was formed, according to different sources, a total of about 100 thousand people (including at the border with Ukraine there are 42 thousand Russian military servicemen).
This group is armed with: combat attack aircrafts — about 500; striking combat and multi-purpose helicopters of the Army Aviation — 300; tactical missile complexes “Tochka-U” — 4; tanks — 300; armored combat vehicles — 1570; artillery systems — 365; multiple launch rocket systems — 170.
The group includes: the troops of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces, units (including the motorized infantry, tank, artillery and missile forces as well as airborne and special task forces), relocated from other military districts on long-distance by different modes of transport (air, rail, road and sea). Also at the operational airfields were concentrated air strike groups composed of front-line bombers Su-24, Su-25 and Su-34 of the Military Space Forces of the RF Armed Forces. Besides, were deployed and prepared for combat use the strike and amphibious forces of the Black Sea Fleet, which were strengthened with ships from the Northern and Baltic Fleets of the RF Armed Forces.
As part of the verification they carried out activities for bringing the Armed Forces to higher level of combat readiness, strengthening groups of troops near the borders of Ukraine and in the occupied Crimea, equipping command posts and communication centers in the field, covering up their deployment and deployment of troops in areas of operational use and application of preventive strikes against the “enemy”'s targets.
In the course of countering the “enemy”'s activities to disrupt the deployment of Russian troops and their command, were practiced the questions of air strikes on: operational and tactical reserves and reconnaissance-sabotage groups of the “enemy” on the routes of movement of their columns — army aviation helicopters; command centers, artillery and rocket positions of the “enemy” in the tactical — by the front aviation aircrafts; other important objects of the “enemy” into the tactical and operational depth (in Ukraine and in its water area of the Black Sea) — by long-range (strategic) bombers Tu-160, Tu-95M and Tu-22M3 by conditional application of air strikes.
Special attention should be paid to the fact that exactly the same content and direction had the provocative preparatory and demonstration activities in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the spring of 2014 — on the eve of and during Russia's occupation of the Ukrainian Crimea, as well as before the Russian aggression in the Donbas.
According to analysts and experts of the Independent Analytical Centre for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”, by organizing and conducting the latest Russian provocations in the Crimea and around the Ukrainian Cultural Center in Moscow, Russia today is actually creating an excuse for an attack on Ukraine, which at any moment can be significantly activated and modified with new provocations of a broader and more resonant character.
Thus, today in Russia once again have been expressed “doubts about the legitimacy of Ukraine's leadership and all its decisions”. As for the State Duma and the Federation Council's decisions (respectively, of lower and upper houses of the Federal Assembly /Parliament/ of the RF) in terms of allowing President of the Russian Federation V. Putin to bring troops into Ukraine (including with “peacekeeping” tasks to protect the Russian-speaking /Russian, orthodox/ population or with “stabilization” tasks — disengagement of the “civil war parties in the East of Ukraine” — there are different options and their compilation), then on the basis of previous experiences, they won't take long to happen.
That is, exactly such and similar activities are creating now and will keep creating falsified grounds for “legitimizing” the attack on our State.
Besides, taking into consideration the features of the current political situation in the world and Europe, the final decision on further actions against Ukraine, including of military nature, can be taken or adjusted by Russian President V. Putin on the results of his meetings with the leaders of the United States, Germany and France on the sidelines of the summit of the “Big twenty” in Hangzhou (China) on the 4th-5th of September 2016.
In a similar way, Putin's Russia acted within the framework of the preparation of the armed aggression against Georgia in August 2008, which was preceded by the SCPE “Caucasus-2008” in the North Caucasus in the immediate vicinity of the Georgian border.
More information and estimates on this issue will be posted in the next “Week's news express analysis” № 14/09 on the website of the Independent Analytical Centre for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel” and in the analytical article about the features and results of the SCPE “Caucasus-2016” (http://bintel.com.ua).
