October 2, 2018

Middle East after the 17th of September

Washington is not going to leave Syria, planning to stay there for a long time. In fact, the measures planned for the province of Idlib and the Turkish plan of actions only narrowed the US maneuver in the search for reasons for attacking the Assad regime. But keep in mind that air strikes alone cannot resolve the problem. The land-based operation is needed, as we repeatedly mentioned in previous articles.

Russia's giving the Assad regime the newest weapon has provided the United States and Israel with a new reason for strikes on Syria, which, besides B. Assad's troops, will affect the troops of Russia and Iran. Attempts to oppose Israel will lead to a direct collision, since it is easier for Tel Aviv to destroy the Iranian threat near its borders than to worry about preserving its relationship with Moscow. This will lead to a sharp escalation of the situation in Syria, and Russia will have no chance either to counteract, or to settle the conflict. Today, Moscow, having given up forceful resolving the Idlib problem, has been forced to intensify its diplomatic efforts to remain in Syria. Turkey and the USA have made it clear to Moscow that they are ready to a direct conflict with the Damascus regime (in fact, with Russia), which has become an unacceptable risk to Putin.

Iran is also trying to maintain its presence in Syria. But today Tehran must rely only on its own strength, since Ankara, in an alliance with the United States and the Coalition, is busy trying to achieve its own goals, while Moscow is chaotically trying to get out of the situation, and on the one hand, it actually stopped the operation in Idlib, when it demanded the UN Security Council's meeting on this issue, and on the other hand, continues to arm the Assad regime.

The war in Syria may be not the last one. The situation is fast moving and if the actions of the United States, their allies and countries of the region can be foreseen, Russia's actions are subjectively unpredictable.

The article is available in Ukrainian