October 4, 2017

“The Empire Strikes Back”

October 1, 2017, the United States' new law “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” came into full force.

It introduces additional sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea.

As noted earlier, sanctions against Russia are critical both for the Russian economy and the ruling elite of the country, and their consequences can be compared with the use of weapons of mass destruction.


Against this background, the series of resonant events that have taken place recently and have become a direct challenge to the security of Ukraine and its western partners — the United States and the EU — is rather revealing. The main of these events are:

  • The explosions of artillery warehouses in the area of Mariupol (September 22, 2017), and near Kalynivka, Vinnytsya region (September 26, 2017). According to the main version of the investigation, in both cases, the reasons for explosions are terrorist attacks;
  • The scandal around the new law of Ukraine “On Education”, which is actively fueled in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Today, the Hungarian government has already stated openly about blocking all Ukraine's steps towards Europe and, in fact, Romania has joined it;
  • The held in Catalonia on October 1, 2017 referendum on that autonomy's independence from Spain. Despite the fact that the act was not recognized by either the Spanish government or the international community, the referendum has already led to a sharp worsening of the situation in the country and may also serve as a catalyst for separatist processes in other EU countries;
  • The shooting of participants of the country music festival on the night of October 2, 2017, in the “Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino” in Las Vegas, USA. 59 people were killed and 525 were injured.

Of course, all this can be explained by a simple “coincidence of circumstances”. At the same time, the coincidence of more than two circumstances is already a tendency and raises the right question: who is behind it or who benefits from it? There is no unambiguous answer to the first question, at least in the context of combining all of these events. At the same time, the answer to the second question has a clear-cut meaning and clearly points to Russia. It is the RF who benefits from undermining stability in Ukraine, the EU and the USA, and hence — from reducing their ability to counteract the Kremlin's neo-imperial policy.

We will not argue that it was Russia that organized the above-mentioned incidents, but it certainly will use them for its own purposes, at least for conducting relevant information campaigns. First of all, their goals may be: to spread panic in the societies of Ukraine, European countries and the United States; to prove to the West the “danger” of supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons since it “cannot” keep it; to make a split between Ukraine and the CEE countries; to provoke separatism and Euro-skepticism in the EU; to revive the idea of combining the efforts of Russia and the United States and Europe in the struggle against international terrorism.

Taking into consideration the fundamental importance of the above-mentioned for V. Putin's regime, it can move on to more resolute actions to realize its interests, including the methods of state terrorism which it uses against Ukraine. That is why in the nearest future we may expect a new series of provocations, acts of terrorism and other incidents both in Ukraine and in the USA and Europe. At this, a special purpose of such Russia's actions may be a banal revenge for sanctions against it and a demonstration of the ability to take “asymmetric” steps in response.