LAST WEEK'S KEY FACTORS AND MAIN TRENDS
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SITUATION AROUND UKRAINE
(June 05–11, 2017)
I. Major-Profile Events in the Development of the Situation around Ukraine
For Ukraine fundamentally important is the preservation of the unity of the countries of the European Union in their policy to contain Russia, and to support our state. Thus, on 5 June, 2017, the Committee of Permanent Representatives (Ambassadors) of the EU countries unanimously extended for another year the sanctions against Russia, that had been imposed for the annexation of the Crimea. The final decision on this issue will be taken by the EU Council on 19 June, 2017. The sanctions provide for a ban on imports by the EU countries of any Crimean goods, as well as activities of European investors in the Crimea.
The ambassadors of the European Union countries have also agreed on expanding trade quotas for Ukraine. It provides for cancelling customs tariffs for certain types of Ukrainian agricultural products for a period of three years, a complete or partial removal of import duties on certain manufactured goods. This will create prerequisites for Ukraine's broader access to EU markets and further reduce of its trade and economic dependence on Russia.
However, military tension around Ukraine remains. Preparations are continuing for the “West-2017” strategic command and staff exercise (SCPE) of the Armed Forces of Russia and Belarus which is scheduled for September 14–20 in Russia and Belarus on the North-Eastern (Baltic) strategic direction. Russia's Defense Minister S. Shoigu believes that the SCPE “West-2017” is the main event of the summer training period in the Russian Armed Forces. It will be preceded by a comprehensive mobilization training, during which federal and regional executive authorities, as well as defense industry enterprises will be mastering to work in wartime conditions.
Russia is also strengthening its military activities on the Southern (Caucasian) and South-Western (Black Sea) strategic directions. During the announced by the Commander of the troops of the Southern Military District (MD), Colonel-General A. Dvornikov, inspection of the South-Eastern MD of the Russian Federation, which began on 8 June, among other things, they are strengthening the grouping of Russian troops in the occupied Crimea.
In particular, the Marine Battalion of the Caspian Flotilla of Russia was transferred to an unknown for itself Crimean training ground Opuk, where the marines have begun an active phase of tactical training. Then, the Caspian Flotilla's Marine units will move from the Crimea to the training ground in Dagestan, where in cooperation with the Marines of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (June 1, within the framework of the readiness check, a Separate Battalion of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, deployed in the Krasnodar Territory) will take part in joint tactical exercises with the use of reconnaissance and strike UAVs (drones).
Military experts are paying attention to some events taking place recently on the Southern (Caucasian) and South-Western (Black Sea) strategic directions. Namely: Russia's threatening Georgia with the demand to provide an air and land corridor for setting up logistics supplies for the 102nd military base of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Gyumri (Armenia); strengthening the grouping of Russian troops at the 7th military base in Abkhazia (Gudauta-Ochamchira) and the 4th military base in South Ossetia (Tskhinvali-Java), as well as their re-equipment with new weapons and military equipment; formation of the new 8th Combined Arms Army of the RF Armed Forces in the Southern Military District (HQ — in Novocherkassk) as the second echelon and reserve on the Southern (Caucasian) strategic direction, etc.
Measures are being taken to increase the combat potential of the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation. The leadership of the Russian Federation has decided to resume the serial production of strategic missile bombers Tu-160, the main spare parts of which are already being manufactured. Besides, work is underway to modernize and prolong the Tu-160 and Tu-95MS' life in service.
The plans of the “West-2017” SCPE are of concern to the NATO leadership, which does not exclude the possibility of the Russian Federation's attack on the Baltic states. Therefore, within the framework of NATO's “Saber Strike” exercises, the NATO Response Force (NRF) of the Alliance in the Baltic region is preventively being built up, measures are being taken to repel Russia's armed aggression.
Therefore, during some exercises and trainings, within the framework of “Saber Strike”, the following things are mastered: establishing interaction between staffs of different levels; receiving troops from NATO countries arriving by land, sea and air; conducting defensive and counter-offensive operations. In particular, the Multinational Corps Northeast (HQ — in Szczecin, Poland; includes mechanized/motorized divisions of Poland, Germany and Denmark) is being partially deployed.
Besides, the US Armed Forces strategic nuclear component in Europe is growing. In early June, three B-52H strategic bombers of the US Air Force were transferred to Fairford airbase (Great Britain). For the first time since the end of the Cold War, these planes began flights over the Baltic Sea.
Simultaneous military actions by Russia and the United States/NATO in the same region significantly increase the threat of incidents or direct clashes of the parties, including with the participation of the carriers of nuclear weapons, with all the ensuing consequences. Thus, on 6 June, Russian Su-27 fighters intercepted and escorted two US Air Force B-52H bombers, which had taken off from Fairford airbase and were conducting flights over Poland and the Baltic Sea near Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation.
ІІ. Russia's Armed Aggression against Ukraine
2.1. The East of Ukraine (the ATO Zone)
The latest events in the East of Ukraine testify to Russia's actual refusal to implement the Minsk Agreements. It deliberately aggravates the situation in the so-called “conflict zone”. In particular, on 8 June, Russian-terrorist forces attempted to seize the strongholds of the ATO forces in the vicinity of Zholobok (near the town of Stakhanov) on the Luhansk direction. The intensity of shelling of positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has increased to more than 70–75 a day. The OSCE observers point out more active movement of military equipment on the Luhansk direction.
The Ukrainian side raised the question of the intensified armed confrontation in the Donbas at the regular meeting of the Tripartite Contact Group in Minsk on 7 June, 2017. The fact of the intensification of hostilities was also confirmed by the OSCE representative M. Saydik. But due to Russia's (along with “DPR” and “LPR”) traditionally destructive position, no decisions were taken on this issue. Some concessions were made only when certain economic problems were agreed upon, for example, the return of debts for water supply by the self-proclaimed republics.
2.2. The Crimean Peninsula
Constantly stressing the “Crimea's belonging to Russia”, the leadership of the Russian Federation bluntly disregards Ukraine's sovereignty, international norms and resolutions of the United Nations, decisions of the UN International Court of Justice and of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly. Last week, the Chairman of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation V. Matvienko paid a demonstrative visit to the Crimea.
R. Chubarov, the leader of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, has stated that after the UN International Court of Justice had announced its decision with a demand to stop the persecution of the Crimean Tatars, Moscow has not just disregarded that decision, but has intensified its repressions against activists of the Crimean-Tatar movement in the Peninsula.
2.3. Other Aspects of the Russian Federation’s Actions against Ukraine and the West
Moscow's actions to demonstrate its power to the United States and NATO are accompanied by the Russian leadership's aggressive rhetoric with threats to the countries of the West. First of all, this concerns the new members' joining the North Atlantic Alliance and plans for NATO's further enlargement.
Also, the Russians sharply negatively reacted to the decision of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of June 8, in which Ukraine's joining NATO is defined as the priority of its foreign policy. According to the Press Secretary of the Russian President D. Peskov, this decision “threatens Russia's security and the balance of forces in the Eurasian region”. With this in mind, he announced the Kremlin's intention “to take all necessary measures to rebalance the situation and protect its own security”.
At the same time, Russia is trying to influence the European parliamentary structures. For example, in connection with the limitation of the powers of the Russian delegation, the leadership of the Russian Federation has reduced by one third its contribution to the financing of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the annual volume of Russian expenditures for which had earlier been 33 million Euros.
Against this background, an incident involving the use of an explosive device near the US Embassy in Ukraine is very revealing. And although the law enforcement authorities called this incident not a “terrorist attack” but a “hooligan act”, it by and large “plays in favor” of Russia. In fact, it was a demonstration of the possibility of terrorist attacks on Ukrainian territory against American citizens in response to the USA's support to Ukraine.
III. Ukraine, International Organizations and Leading Western Countries
3.1. International Organizations
The growing level of military and terrorist threats from Russia necessitates strengthening the unity of NATO and the EU in both military-political and other spheres concerning European and Euro-Atlantic security.
NATO. According to the Secretary General of NATO, J. Stoltenberg, members of the North Atlantic Alliance, taking into account Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine, for the first time in many years have got united to organize the defense of Europe from the threats coming from the eastern direction. Since the aggressive nature of Moscow's policy is not decreasing, the Alliance has decided to further strengthen collective security measures.
NATO's unity has also been supported by the US leadership. June 9 2017, US President D. Trump for the first time publicly confirmed the United States' commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, where an attack on one of NATO members is considered an attack on the entire Alliance. He also defined the main tasks of NATO for the future, namely: “...focus on terrorism and migration, as well as on threats from Russia and from the East and South”. The head of the White House stressed that to ensure the power of the Alliance, adequate funding is needed, and he again pointed out the need for all NATO members to make their “fair share” to collective defense at a minimum of 2 % of GDP.
The European Union. The European Commission is preparing a bill providing for creation by 2021 of the European Union's common defense fund in the amount of more than 1 billion Euros. Of these funds, 250 million Euros will be allocated for scientific and technical research in the defense sector. According to preliminary plans, the fund should become part of the overall budget of the EU (in 2016 it was 155 billion Euros).
3.2. Leading Western Countries
The USA. The US administration, seeking common ground with Russia, continues to hold tough positions against it. In his speech at the “Atlantic Council” on 5 June 2017, M. Pence, Vice-President of the United States, included Russia's policy in the list of the three main threats to the world security (along with the Russian Federation, the list includes Iran and international terrorism). According to him, to date, Moscow's actions have created a much greater conflict potential in the world than it was during the Cold War.
Given this, the United States intends to adhere to the policy of restraining the Russian Federation. Under the statement of the Deputy Press Secretary of the White House S. Sanders from June 8th, the US does not plan to abolish the sanctions imposed on Russia for its policy on the Ukrainian issue. At the same time she called such sanctions the best tool for compelling Moscow to fulfill its obligations.
The Baltic Countries and Poland. The leaders of the Baltic countries are also alarmed by the actions of the Russian Federation. At the meeting of the Presidents of Lithuania D. Gribauskaite and Estonia K. Kaljulaid in Tallinn, on 5 June 2017, Russia's aggressive militarization of Kaliningrad region of Russia, threatening the stability and security of the Baltic region, were discussed. Among such threats, Russian attacks in cyberspace were also mentioned.
The President of Lithuania spoke in favor of deepening Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia's cooperation with NATO and the EU in the security sphere, and for increasing support for Ukraine, Georgia and other Eastern partners of the European Union. She also reported on the Lithuanian government's intentions to continue building a system of engineering obstacles on the border with Russia.
The Minister of National Defense of Poland, A. Macierewicz, also acknowledged the increased level of threats to the countries of the Baltic region from Russia. During hearings in the Seim (Parliament) of the country on 8 June 2017, he mentioned the fact of Russia's growing military activity on the north-eastern flank of NATO. Besides, he is not sure that after the end of the “West-2017” SCPE the Russian troops will be withdrawn from Belarus.
IV. Other Important Trends and Developments that Will Have an Impact on Ukraine's National Interests
Russia. In early June 2017, the so-called Petersburg Economic Forum was held in Russia. The Forum is traditionally used by the leadership of the Russian Federation to promote the “economic successes” of the country and to expand its economic ties. As at previous similar events, it was declared that “despite Western sanctions, Russia has overcome the economic crisis and restored the positive dynamics of the development of the Russian economy”.
But independent experts present a completely different picture of the real state of the Russian economy. Thus, according to representatives of the Higher School of Economics of the Russian Federation, at best Russia will have to plunge into a long period of “decay”, and a new “shock collapse” is most likely.
The reason is a real reduction in the country's financial reserves (and not their “increase”, as the Russian leadership claims, by reallocating the money of various funds), which leads to a loss of state support for the national economy. At the same time, there is another problem: a sharp decline in the competitiveness of Russian goods in foreign markets due to the fact that Russia has lost access to modern technologies and does not have sufficient external investments.
V. Major Trends in the Development of the Situation around Ukraine in the Future
5.1. Key Events and Trends that Will Be Most Important for Ukraine
In the near future, one of the weighty factors affecting the development of the situation around Ukraine may be the second wave of mass protests in Russia in the middle of summer. The first rallies and demonstrations at A. Navalny's initiative took place at July 12, 2017, on the Day of Russia. Today, the headquarters for the preparation of such actions have already been established in more than 200 Russian cities. Other political forces promise to join them.
This way, opponents of V. Putin's regime intend to gradually shake the situation in the country with the prospect of aggravating it on the eve of the presidential elections in Russia in March 2018. At the same time, protest actions are becoming coordinated, and are managed from a single center.
According to some estimates, be the main organizer and financial sponsor of anti-government actions in Russia can be certain political forces in the USA, which are trying to undermine the positions of the current Russian leadership and, accordingly, to change the Kremlin's course. At this, they rely on different kinds of opposition movements in the Russian Federation, as well as on some representatives of Russian ruling circles who are not happy with V. Putin.
So, given that there are no prospects for establishing relations between the current Russian regime and the West (and this makes lifting sanctions from Russia out of the question), the conclusion suggests that V. Putin can no longer satisfy the interests of big business of the Russian Federation. This conclusion is confirmed by the corruption scandal surrounding the head of the Russian government D. Medvedev (V. Putin's personal henchman), organized by A. Navalny in the spring of this year, when materials from sources in the highest echelons of the Russian government were used.
Therefore, V. Putin is trying to strengthen his power, including by mass “clean ups” of his close associates, as well as governors and the leaders of the country's law enforcement agencies.
The improvement of the combat capabilities of the Federal Service's Troops of the National Guard of the Russian Federation (“Rosgvardia”) continues, which in fact is turning into a “parallel army”. Thus, according to the State Arms Program for the period 2018–2025, it is planned to purchase Il-76MD-90A, Tu-204-300, An-148, Il-112V planes, and Mi-8AMT, Mi-8FMTSh, Mi-26T2 and Mi-35M helicopters. Thus, the share of new aircraft in Rosgvardia will be brought up to 70 %.
It is worth recalling the words of the Deputy Chief of the Rosgvardia S. Melikov about its the true purpose: “...Rosgvardia of the Russian Federation is the successor of the NKVD”. By this, he actually recognized the purely repressive mission of the “parallel army” to act against own people.
We should also expect V. Putin's regime's further attempts to switch the attention of the population from internal problems to “external threats” from the USA and NATO. To this end, the leadership of the Russian Federation is actively using the preparations for the “West-2017” SCPE, which is becoming a kind of foundation for launching an anti-Western and militaristic hysteria in Russia.
5.2. Prospects for the Development of Events in the Conflict Zones in Ukraine
Taking into consideration the current situation in the Donbas, one can conclude that Russian-terrorist forces can move to more active offensive operations on one or more directions. First of all, such actions are possible on the Svitlodar Arc, on the Dokuchaevsk-Maryinka-Avdiivka section and on the outskirts of Mariupol. This is evidenced by the resumption of attempts to seize the strongholds and positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in certain regions on the front line, regrouping of forces on these directions, as well as creation of additional stocks of weapons, ammunition and material and technical means in the occupied territories.
At the tactical level, Russia can step up its offensive operations in the East of Ukraine, seeking to force out the ATO forces from certain areas important for the “DPR” and “LPR” (in particular, near Debaltsevo and Donetsk airport). At the strategic level, Moscow will increase pressure on Ukraine and its Western allies as a result of their key political decisions in the sphere of Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic integration. This refers to the simplification of the EU visa regime with Ukraine, ratification by the Netherlands' Parliament of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, adoption by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of a bill determining joining NATO as a priority of the foreign policy of the Ukrainian state.
All this increases the relevance of the practical implementation of the OSCE's plans to enlarge the Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine. Despite the insufficient effectiveness of the OSCE SMM, it is one of the deterrents to the expansion of the scale of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine.
5.3. Other Important Events that Will Influence Ukraine's Interests and Security
Russia. As for June 12, 2017 all-Russian anti-corruption actions, there is quite understandable concern about the sudden appointment of “the people's direct line with V. Putin” for June 15, 2017. Usually a “direct line” was held every spring. Therefore, it was thought not to be held this year. But suddenly it was announced, and at this — immediately after the all-Russian anti-corruption action of June 12! By the way, the demonstration of the ordered series by American film director O. Stone about “the great and simple as truth Putin” begins on the American channel “Showtimes” also on June 12. It's hardly a coincidence.
In the opinion of independent experts, V. Putin's closest associates can not allow his next public humiliation — the appearance on June 15 on a “direct line with the people” after the tremendous success of demonstrations across Russia. In this situation, it is possible that serious provocations are to be expected during the protests in Russia. These can be terrorist acts, fierce clashes, deaths of demonstrators and law enforcers, accusation of the leaders of protesters of attempts to organize a coup, “Maydan” and seize power. And after that, on June 15, V. Putin will appear on the “direct line” as the leader of the “Russian world”, who suppressed a mutiny organized by Russia's external and internal enemies.
Such an insidious plan can be found in Putin's nearest environment, the realization of which would allow to keep the Russian people in obedience, and would let V. Putin himself go to the next “victorious” presidential elections in March 2018. That is, preparations for these elections have already begun.
So, the coming days, from 12 to 15 June 2017, may become the most important dates in the history of modern Russia and in the fate of V. Putin, and therefore, may directly affect the national interests and security of Ukraine.
Poland-the USA. June 8, 2017, the first tanker with American liquefied gas arrived in Poland. The establishment of such supplies is an important step in resolving the problem of the Central Eastern Europe's dependence on Russian energy carriers.
At the same time, this creates favorable prospects for strengthening Ukraine's energy security in terms of the possibility of obtaining wider access to European gas sources.
At this, the USA's coming onto the European gas market will compete Russian gas in Europe and, accordingly, will undermine Russia's financial and economic system.