1392 in Iran has been declared a Year of Political and Economic Heroic Deed. Such high-flown name is not accidental. Iranians really consider the day of June 14, 2013 a day determining their future against the background of political and economic upheavals that are taking place in the Middle East. On this day all the citizens of Iran for the 11th time will elect the head of the executive branch - the President of the country, as well as local authorities and members of the Assembly of Experts of the IRI.
The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a speech on the first day of the Iranian New Year called the elections an important political event, and stressed that it is the people who determine both, their own future and the future of the state.
Having described the complexity of the situation that exists in the country due to international economic sanctions against Iran, increasing psychological pressure from the outside and attempts to destabilize the situation, he called all the people to commit what he called a heroic deed in the political arena - to take an active part in the elections and cast their vote for the most deserving candidate.
The upcoming Presidential elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran have attracted great attention, both in the East and in the West. How will change the foreign policy of Iran with a new President's team coming to office? What policy will Tehran lead against the background of political turmoil of the Greater Middle East, caused by the "Arab Spring"? How will Tehran react to the fueled by Washington and its allies, Sunni-Shiite confrontation?
The time to get answers to these and other questions has not come yet, but we can already say with confidence that the elections will take place in the situation of fierce competition. The West is going to make every effort to push through their own candidate, while the Islamic Republic is mostly interested in maintaining its values and continuity. Iran is a country in which democracy works in the Eastern way, and there is every chance to expect that the elections will be democratic as the East understands democracy.
Already now, more than 75 politicians, economists and intellectuals have put forward their candidacies for the elections. Among them, the first woman candidate has also filed an application for registration to participate in the Presidential elections. According to 46 year old Razia Omidvar, her objectives are to improve the overall situation in the country and to serve the society.
But the political system of Iran in 34 years of its existence has developed a pretty reliable screening mechanism and will not allow for the election of the candidate, from whose actions it could suffer. Whoever comes to power, the new President will lead virtually the same policy as the team of Ahmadinejad did, though with some its own features. At this, any radical changes, such as change of policy as to Iran’s nuclear program, should not be expected. On the agenda is one of the major issues - a way out of the dead end in the negotiations on the nuclear program and weakening, or better still - partial, and then complete cancelling, of the sanctions. With these problems is connected normalization of relations with the Western world, and possibly the start of negotiations with the United States.
An important aspect of foreign policy of Iran, as is expected, will be defending its interests in the Middle East, as there has been a recent strengthening of negative perception of Iran in the light of the worsening of the Sunni-Shiite contradictions.
Tehran will have to defend its position in the Islamic world, where it has become a regional leader after the military defeat of Iraq and to try to break the isolation caused by a number of challenges of the imposed on it status of a "troublemaker to provocateur" of the nuclear arms race.
Characteristic of Iran alternate domination in government structures of representatives of conservative or more liberal direction ( like Democrats and Republicans in a number of Western countries), gave a certain stability to the whole political system of government in the country. In the most critical moments, the interference of the Supreme Leader would balance the situation. Concentration of all institutions of power in the hands of one political movement - the Conservatives - at dominance of radical elements which took place after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s coming to power in 2005, ended in a sharp conflict of interests and confrontation of forces in the Presidential elections in 2009, which led to the emergence of protesting moods in the society, actively fueled by the West.
The suppression of the "green movement", the defeat of the reformers' camp apparently stabilized the internal situation, but could not stop the development of the process of disengagement of forces that involved almost all the strata and groups of population. Got activated processes of confrontation between political elites, institutions and parties, which is vividly manifested today in the unfolding pre-election campaign.
At the initiative of Majlis, in the summer of 2012 was raised a question of amending the Law on Presidential elections in Iran. In the course of numerous debates of the discussion of the project, numerous amendments had been made, but not all of them have been approved by majority and adopted by the Supervisory Board. For example, have not been changed the voting age, level of education and other demands to a candidate.
However, the new version of the Law has only a little limited activity of the executive power in the elections. According to the new document, the Central Executive Commission controls the Ministry of Internal Affairs’ activities in holding elections. The Commission, apart from the Minister of Internal Affairs, the Minister of information (Intelligence) and the Prosecutor General, includes a representative of the Presidium of Majlis and the most respected religious, political, social or cultural figures (seven persons). This Commission will approve the results of the vote and deal with complaints.
Thus, the legislative power and public in the country have been involved in the mechanism of control over the elections. However, the body that ultimately approves the vote remains the Supervisory Board.
This institution has a special role in the electoral system of the country. It is worth reminding that the system of government of Iran combines in itself religious and democratic principles. Although Presidential elections are held every four years on a competitive basis and the chief of the executive power is elected by direct and secret ballot, the Supervisory Board has to let candidates to the Elections.
At the same time, speaking about Iran's election system, it is necessary to emphasize its democratic component – an active participation of the population in election campaigns. Virtually in all Presidential elections the turnout of the population was quite high, and in some years it exceeded 70%. In 2009, in the voting participated 85% of the population eligible to vote. Even in the Parliamentary elections of 2012, when the opposing to the regime forces inside and outside the country were actively calling for a boycott of the elections, the population of the country responded to the calls of the country’s leaders to express patriotic feelings, to come to the polls, thereby to demonstrate their support for the regime and to give a decisive answer to foreign enemies of the Republic. The turnout then was 64%.
So, back to our elections. This year, the official registration of candidates was held from the 7th to the 11th of May. At the same time the documents of all registered persons were studied by special commissions formed by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Iran.
The results of this test have been sent to the Supervisory Board, which in the period from 12 to 16 May will confirm reliability and piety of all the candidates assess their loyalty to the Islamic revolution and compliance with other requirements imposed on the applicant in accordance with the Law on the Elections of the President.
Note:
All candidates must:
- - have Iranian origin;
- -be citizens of Iran;
- - have organizational skills;
- - have a decent biography and piety;
- - recognize the foundations of the Islamic Republic (to accept the principle of Velayat-e Faghih - rule of Islam and of the Supreme Leader);
- - belong to the official religion of the country.
This body, in fact, can reject candidates who do not suit it due to their political views or any other reasons. In most difficult cases, the final word rests with the Supreme Leader.
On the 22nd - 23d of May, the Iranian Ministry of Internal Affairs will publish the names of candidates for President. From May 24, it will officially begin the campaign, which will end on the 12th of June. The elections will be held on the 14th of June.
Before the final approval of the candidates, no forecasts can be made, even about the number of participants in the presidential race. However, it is clear that these elections differ from previous ones by a larger number of candidates for the Presidency. Moreover, most of the candidates are high rank politicians. Iranian media state that almost four dozen former Ministers, Members of Parliament, heads of public organizations are ready to begin the struggle. Many of them have already formed their headquarters, are conducting propaganda activities, traveling around the country and meeting with voters.
Unfortunately, the majority of applicants enter the competition without giving a reasonable program of actions, having sketched only the main slogans and having determined general tasks. Their speeches are full of criticism of the Government, lists of problems and promises to improve the situation as soon as possible. All candidates pay great attention to foreign policy and economy. There is understanding that in the coming year it will be necessary to find ways of reaching agreements on the nuclear program and to stabilize the economic situation. But how? The answer to this question is not yet visible in the statements of the candidates. Raised is the question of negotiations with the United States. However, most agree that negotiations should not be the main goal in themselves, but should be conducted as a part of a complex for protection of national interests in all spheres.
This year, many applicants say they are ready to include into the government representatives of various forces, relying on the expertise and professionalism, not on political preferences. At the discussion was the question of a government of "national unity" or "coalition government." It appears that in the situation of a strong domestic confrontation, the idea of involving representatives of various political forces in the structure of the executive branch at the condition of their supporting basic ideas and programs of the President and a complete coherence will be able to work on the consolidation of society. However, so far the pre-election struggle is reduced only to blaming each other, revelations, denials, and not to reasonable criticism of an opponent’s positions.
Intensification of the processes of confrontation in the society in recent years has led to the fact that in contrast to previous decades, when in the course of elections positions of each of the political camps were represented by a fairly strong united coalition, this time each of the above mentioned three competing forces is represented by several coalitions and a number of candidates. But it should still be taken into consideration that all the presidential candidates, as well as all more or less well-known and respected politicians, are divided into:
- - liberals- reformers;
- - conservatives - pragmatics;
- - right-wing radicals.
Each group has three categories:
- - the right;
- - the left;
- - centrists (the moderate).
The Iranian news agency Fars News (FNA) has published an interview with the Iranian Minister of Internal Affairs Mustafa Mohammad Najjar, in which he commented on some features of the upcoming Presidential elections and municipal elections of Iran. In particular, he said that the Ministry of the Internal Affairs has taken all necessary measures for implementation of electronic voting, adding that the presidential elections of 2013 will be fully computerized.
He also said that 92 polling stations and 70,000 branches have been set up all over the country. According to the Minister, the total number of polling stations has increased by 20,000, as compared with the Presidential elections of 2009, and about a million people have enrolled in the lists of candidates for the municipal elections, the registration of whom began on April 15. He added that the current election would be held under the slogan "The implementation of Laws" and "Trust and Justice."
We should remind that on the 19th of March the Central Election Commission began its work and started realizing a complex of measures for preparation and holding of the upcoming Presidential elections.
Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs for Security Affairs and activities of the Security Forces (Police), Ali Abdullahi in his interview to the IRIB agency added that the Police are currently monitoring the situation closely to prepare for the elections in provinces and large cities of Iran. "The situation is calm and there is no reason for concern," - he added.
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Already now, more than 75 politicians, economists and intelectuals have put forward their candidacies in the elections www.isna.ir/ |
So, let us consider the pre-alignment of political forces: the camp of conservative forces is represented by two main coalitions - "2 +1" and "Group 5".
The first association that has lately been called "Coalition of Progress" is represented by three candidates:
Ali Akbar Velayati - Advisor to the Spiritual Leader, Secretary General of the "Islamic Awakening" International Assembly and the former Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Qholam Ali Haddad Adel - Member of the Majlis, the Director of the Academy of the Persian Language and Literature, the Speaker of the Majlis of the 7th convocation, a well-known politician- practitioner.
Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf - the Mayor of Tehran, the former Commander of the Forces of Law and Order. He is known as a strong political practitioner, able to really make a difference in the country.
Three candidates emphasize loyalty to the ruling regime, the Islamic Republic, principles of conservatism, but represent different currents of the conservative camp: moderate, more radical and pragmatists - technocrats. Obviously, the goal of the association, whose members see themselves as a team, although they are far apart in their ambitions, has become a desire to attract different strata of the electorate in order to compete with the representative of the pro-government camp. At the same time, in the formation of this alliance of the "Three"(of which only one, chosen by the supporters of the coalition through agreements and the opinion polls, will participate in the elections, while the other two in case of his victory, will be able to get positions in the Government), one can see a willingness to use experts - representatives of various political views for the sake of interests of the country's progress.
The second coalition of conservatives represents interests of the moderate or traditionalists, based on one of the oldest political groups - the "Front of Supporters of the Imam and Spiritual Leader", which includes 16 parties and organizations. Social supports of the Front are representatives of private business, especially in finance and commerce spheres, the clergy, and traditional urban strata.
The main goal of this association in the elections is to return power into the hands of moderate conservatives and pragmatists, having not let the supporters of the current Government be elected.
This coalition, calling itself the "Coalition of the Majority" of Conservatives, is putting forward the following candidates:
Manouchehr Mottaki - Member of Parliament, former Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Mostafa Pourmohammadi – currently the government’s Inspector General, the former Minister of Interior and a member of the “Society of Combatant Clergy” religious organization.
Mohammad Reza Bahonar - Deputy Speaker of Majlis of the 8th and 9th convocations.
Mohammad Hassan Abutarabifard - Deputy Speaker of Majlis, a member of the "Society of Combatant Clergy".
Yahya Al Askhag - Minister of Trade in the Government of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
It is expected that by the time of submission of the documents, out of the five politicians only one candidate for the Presidency will have been determined.
Apart from the above mentioned coalitions, there is a participant of the previous election campaign, the Secretary of the Expediency Council, former Commander of the Revolutionary Guards Mohsen Rezaee, representing the "Resistance Front" (Istadegi), created on the eve of 2012 Parliamentary elections. The “Front” is composed of 11 organizations, mainly the newly established and not characterized by distinct ideological positions and experience in political activity. Among them - "The Party of Development and Justice", "The Front of Supporters of the Velayat-e Faghih", "Society of Young Creators," women’s society "Zeynat", " Society of Youth of the Islamic Revolution."
Mohsen Rezaee represents interests of more than one stream of conservative spectrum called in Iran conservatives-reformers. Its main support is government employees of the middle and lower ranks. Assessing low results of M.Rezaee in the previous election campaign, analysts point out that he has won the pre-election l debates, as he alone presented a clearly thought-out program and his answers to the questions from the opponent were exact. The presence of the economic component together with the idea of regionalization of Iran's economy and agricultural intensification program distinguishes him from other candidates in this campaign too.
Noticeable is the fact that in the course of this campaign have not yet expressed their positions "Combatant Clergy Society" and the "Society of the Teachers of the Qom Theological Centre”", who traditionally acted as leaders of conservative forces in previous election campaigns. Not making any statements in support of this or that candidate yet, they are making efforts in reducing the total number of applicants and are trying to negotiate with the two main coalitions on their nominating a single candidate after the registration of documents.
Not determined completely are candidates from pro-government forces. In this camp can be seen two streams. The first represents immediate President’s supporters in the Government and local bodies of executive power. Thus, the following candidacies have been put forward:
- Ali Nikzad - Minister of Roads and Urban Development;
- Ruhollah Ahmadzadeh Kermani – the leader of the Organization of Cultural Heritage and Tourism;
- Ali Akbar Salehi - Minister of Foreign Affairs;
- Gholam Hossein Elham - Speaker of the Government;
- Mohammad Reza Rahimi - First Vice-President.
However, not removed from the agenda is the question of the nomination of such an odious figure as Rahim Mashaie - relative and close friend of Ahmadinejad, who currently works as the Executive Secretary of Non-Aligned States Organization. Although most analysts agree that his candidacy will not be approved by the Supervisory Board due to his controversial statements, in the President’s environment many predict his victory at the elections.
The camp of pro-government forces includes the "Stability Front of Islamic Revolution ", also formed on the eve of Parliamentary elections in 2012, the spiritual leader of which is recognized Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi. This association has not made any declarations about support for a particular candidate.
The third center, getting prepared to take part in the elections, is the Reformers. After the events of 2009 - this is their first appearance in public. In the Parliamentary elections, they did not participate as an organized force. However, the change of the situation in the society over the last year, the reassessment of the role of the reformers’ camp in the events of the latest Presidential elections, the position of the Reformers themselves as supporters of the foundations of the Islamic regime, have made it possible for them to return to political life. Their arrival is welcome by many Conservatives. They understand the need to involve the electorate of Reformers and see them as a force opposing the pro-Government camp. Several representatives of Moderate Reformers have announced about their participation in the elections:
- Mohammad Reza Aref - Vice-President in M. Khatami ‘s Government;
- Mohammad Shariatmadari - Minister of Trade;
- Mostafa Kavakebian - General Secretary of the “Democracy” Party.
However, these figures will not be able to get the support of all reformist forces and to make a strong competition to other candidates.
Among the supporters of the Liberals is growing a movement in support of Mohammad Khatami, who so far has not expressed a desire to go back to the polls. However, headquarters have been formed, which are collecting votes for his nomination and still hope to persuade the former President to participate in the elections as a Presidential candidate.
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| The Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei (right) blessed Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to participate in the Presidential elections |
Announced about his participation in elections a close to reformist circles Hassan Rouhani, who headed the Supreme National Security Council during the Presidency of M. Khatami, known as the leading negotiator with the West over the nuclear program. H.Rouhani positions himself as an independent candidate, nevertheless he can get the support of the electorate of both, the Reformers and (partially) of the Conservatives. The candidacy of H.Rouhani is supported by the most powerful figure of the Iranian political Olympus - Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, though talks about his possible participation in the elections do not stop. His name as of a candidate has recently emerged in the leading place in the governmental newspaper of Iran. It seems that in the current international situation around Iran and the large amount of internal problems, Rafsanjani, who has a great experience in political maneuvering and doing "backroom diplomacy," and preserving over the past few years, his "above-factional" position, might be the best pick for the Iranian people. However, he's old, but some analysts believe that he will take part in the elections and then will give up in favor of his protégée.
A lot of arguments and talks cause the candidacy of Saeed Jalili – the main negotiator on the nuclear program. He's a tough, uncompromising negotiator, a greatly respected defender of the interests of Iran. His intransigence and unwillingness to compromise lead Iran to confrontation. It is unlikely that he will be the President. This will be the worst option, worse than Ahmadinejad. Jalili feels strength, at talks he does not bluff, but he is leading the country to confrontation with the West.
While in the immediate vicinity of candidates and in political circles there is excitement, the level of political activity of the population is low as compared with previous periods. Everyday household problems distract people from monitoring of the Presidential race. A large number of candidates make the choice more difficult, especially because their competition does not reflect the struggle of ideas, but shows only the fragmentation of the political elite and its internal contradictions and ambitions. Perhaps voters are aware that the main contenders have not been determined yet and it is still a bit too early to think about the choice.
Return of Moderate Reformers into the political arena, given the "healthy" elections will consolidate the society, raise the political activity of the population and help to restore the balance of forces. The analyzed above peculiarities of the inner political situation of the country determine the specificity of the current election campaign. This year, we can talk about the participation of representatives of three forces: the Conservatives, Moderate Reformers and supporters of the Government - "Doulatih." The latter are sometimes referred to as Radicals. However, attempts to rank political parties on the basis of their ideological views, in Iran are actually quite a difficult task. Most of them have no clearly stated program of action. Their positions often get adjusted according to the situation and tactical goals. Since most organizations do not conduct regular activities, and get activated only during election campaigns and form pre-election coalitions around well-known political figures, we can estimate their views only through watching the reaction of leaders at these or those events. At this, radical slogans in the sphere of foreign policy or morality can coexist with relatively liberal views on economic issues and vice versa.
It is assumed that the situation in Iran and around it will change after September, at least before September nothing will happen. War and the escalation of the conflict no one wants, neither Iran nor the West.
The new President will continue the policy in the sphere of nuclear programs, policy regarding Israel, otherwise he will not win the elections. But the willingness to compromise will bring Iran out of the crisis. The USA will negotiate with such a President. Both, the USA and the West are tired of the rigid confrontation; moreover, to international corporations this confrontation brings substantial losses.
If Washington hears a different tone, Iran will come out of the crisis very quickly.
As a conclusion, we may say that a pro-Western candidate will not win. A tough radical will not win either. Most likely it will be a moderate pragmatist who will win.
Time will tell.
Our next publication will be released after the announcement of the candidates.
