The Upcoming Parliamentary Elections in the Federal Republic of Germany as a Key Factor in the German and European Policy towards Ukraine

What Is in Store for Ukraine?

In the nearest future one of the main factors of influence on the position of the European Union and individual European countries regarding Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine may be general parliamentary elections in Germany in 2017. As a result of these elections, a new ruling coalition in the German Bundestag (Parliament) will elect a new Federal Chancellor of Germany.

In fact, the winners of these elections will determine the future policy of Germany over the “Ukrainian issue”. As the leading role in the European Union belongs to Germany, the EU's attitude to Ukraine and Russia will depend on it, including in terms of providing assistance and support to the sovereign Ukrainian state and further pressure on the Russian Federation.

Today, in Germany's political field, the main “players” participating in the election campaign, are the parliamentary parties (blocks) from the ruling coalition (the party union of the current German Chancellor A. Merkel — the CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic Party of Germany), as well as of moderate (“Green”) and of more intransigent (“Left”) opposition. Besides, in recent years against the background of deterioration of the situation in Germany due to the economic problems of the EU and the “immigration crisis” in Europe, increasingly popular is becoming the right-wing-populist and Eurosceptic party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD).

At this, the pro-government and opposition parties of the FRG (in the first place, CDU and AfD) demonstrate a fundamentally different attitude to the whole range of issues related to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, and this determines the crucial importance of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Germany for Ukraine's national interests and security.

Thus, despite the losses of the German economy due to “the sanctions war” with Russia, as well as pressure from the opposition and their political partners, A. Merkel and her political forces continue the consistent policy of supporting Ukraine and containment of the Russian Federation. This question is one of the main components of the political program of the CDU/CSU, really put into practice.

In particular, in September 2015 the Union parties of the CDU/CSU adopted a conceptual political document “Strategy of Support for Ukraine”. Its main idea is reckoning of the situation in and around Ukraine to the vital interests of the Federal Republic of Germany and the whole European Union. The essence of this concept is recognizing Ukraine not a sphere of Moscow's geopolitical influence, but a historical part of the European and Euro-Atlantic space.

In this context, the main content of the FRG's policy towards Ukraine is to support the European integration of the Ukrainian State, its economic development and internal reforms. At the same time, Russia's attempts to prevent these processes, including by the occupation and annexation of the Crimea, Russia's aggression in the Donbas are perceived as principal security challenges for Germany and the whole European Union.

At this, German Chancellor A. Merkel and the led by her alliance of the CDU/CSU do not just declare the policy of supporting Ukraine and containing Russia, but put it into practice. This is evidenced by Germany's successive steps (actions) to impose sanctions against Russia and the consolidation of the EU position on this issue, the leading role of Germany in the work of the “Normandy format”, as well as Berlin's financial and economic assistance to Ukraine as part of various government's programs.

In contrast to the current German leadership, most opposition forces in Germany adhere to pro-Russian views, while resorting to populist thesis on “losses of German businesses due to the use of sanctions against Russia” and “impossibility of solving the problems of European security without the Russian Federation's participation”. The main advocate of these ideas is the right-wing populist and Eurosceptic party “Alternative for Germany”, actually directly supported by V. Putin's regime.

The essence of the political program of AfD was stated by Vice-Chairman of the Party A. Gauland at the beginning of 2016, when A. Merkel was making tremendous efforts to restore peace in the Donbas. According to A. Gauland, “Alternative for Germany” has been and will be against any anti-Russian sanctions, including those imposed against Russia by the European Union after the RF had annexed the Ukrainian Crimea. At this he “justified” his position “by... unlawfulness by N. Khrushchev's transferring to Ukraine of the Crimean Peninsula, once conquered by Russia's Catherine the Great, and which today must belong to the Russian Federation”, in fact repeating V. Putin and his apologists' statements. Based on this approach, A. Gauland stands for “... the need to solve the Crimean issue solely with Russia”.

The AfD demonstrates its openly pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian positions at public party events (actions), in which next to Russian flags are hung symbols of the breakaway republics in the East of Ukraine — the so-called DPR and LPR. Similar views are expressed by some other opposition parties of Germany.

Based on the positions of Germany's leading political forces, and on the results of the upcoming parliamentary elections of 2017, most possible are the following three options for further policy and practice in Germany regarding Russia's aggression against Ukraine:

- if most of the parties of the current ruling coalition remain in the Bundestag of Germany, A. Merkel and her party alliance will continue supporting Ukraine and curbing Russia through international political and economic sanctions. However, even in such an optimal for Ukraine situation, A. Merkel will be forced to take into account the interests of big businesses in Germany, the opposition and even her own party allies, demanding the lifting of sanctions against Russia and resuming Germany's full cooperation with the Russian Federation;

- in case of parity between pro-government and opposition parties of Germany, these political forces will be forced to seek some compromises in terms of creation of a new ruling coalition in the Germany's Parliament. One of such compromises can be a change of orientation of Germany's policy towards Russia and Ukraine in Moscow's favor in the interests of the pro-Russian forces present in the German political establishment. In spite of this, and taking into account its strategic interests, Germany will continue to support Ukraine and to put pressure on Russia, although this pressure will be less severe;

- if the list of political forces in the Federal Republic of Germany is completely transformed, in particular, the ruling coalition led by A. Merkel loses to the opposition forces, Germany's attitude to Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine can change significantly. Of course, even in this case, Germany's leadership, most likely, will not explicitly recognize the “Crimea's Russian identity” and will not deny Moscow's leading role in provoking the armed conflict in the Donbas. However, the settlement of the conflict over Ukraine can be quickly transferred from the plane of political and economic sanctions against Russia into direct pressure on Ukraine in order to make it accept Russian conditions of ending the armed conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The actual “rehearsal” of the general parliamentary elections of 2017 in Germany were local elections in three German Länder (regions — subjects of the Federation) March 13 this year, namely, in Rhineland-Palatinate, Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt. These elections were special, as they demonstrated public moods of the German society. In particular, almost 13 million voters live in that territory, representing approximately 20 % of the German electorate.

According to the German political experts' estimates, “... the results of voting have become a major setback for the political forces that support the Federal Chancellor A. Merkel.” For example, the led by her Christian Democratic Union received the highest number of votes only in Saxony-Anhalt — about 30 %. In turn, in the Rhineland-Palatinate the winner was the CDU's situational ally in the Bundestag — the Social Democratic Party of Germany, in Baden-Württemberg — the moderate oppositional “Green”.

However, the most unpleasant fact for the current leadership of the German Federative Republic (and, respectively, for Ukraine) was the success of the “Alternative for Germany”, which received a sufficient number of votes, became part of the local parliaments of all the three above-mentioned German lands. This way the AfD increased its representation to 8 of the existing 16 land parliaments in Germany. The next step the German Eurosceptic and right-wing radicals' entering the political establishment of Germany can be a series of upcoming local elections in September 2016 in Macklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin that has the status of a subject of the Federation.

Even without the results of the upcoming elections for the German Bundestag, one can argue that the party “Alternative for Germany” has already reserved a number of seats in the German Parliament with the help of Landtags' quotas. This will give it some advantage over the foreign policy of Germany, including towards Ukraine and Russia.

At the same time, according to the majority of European political scientists, strengthening of positions of Eurosceptic and right-wing forces in local parliaments of Germany and in the highest legislative body in Germany — the Bundestag — does not mean radical changes in the external and internal Germany's policies. It is believed in Berlin, that none of the German parties, including the opposition, is going to create a full and long-term coalition with the party “Alternative for Germany”.

The reason for this is the purely populist (right-wing and Eurosceptic) nature of the AfD, which, using exclusively temporary difficulties of Germany, aims to improve its rating and, in contrast to the current parliamentary parties, has no deep political and social base. Moreover, some German experts are convinced that the AfD has already passed its peak of popularity and begins losing it, as the passions around the “migration crisis” in Europe are calming down.

In particular, a truce in Syria, as well as a partial withdrawal of Russian troops from there contribute to solving this problem. Besides, positive effect may have the practical implementation of the agreement between the European Union and Ankara, signed on the initiative of the Federal Chancellor of Germany A. Merkel, and providing for the return of refugees from European countries to Turkey with the European Union's compensation to Turkey for the expenses for their support and settlement.

All this has provided growth of A. Merkel and her political allies' rating. German sociologists predict that as a result of the general parliamentary elections in Germany in 2017, the ruling coalition will retain a majority in the German Bundestag. And this will allow A. Merkel to remain the head of the German government. This conclusion has been drawn by experts of one of the most respected magazines in the world — Forbes, which called A. Merkel “the most powerful woman in the world”. In this category, she surpassed even Hillary Clinton a real candidate for future US President.

However, in order to guarantee a victory in the upcoming parliamentary elections, A. Merkel and her political forces need effective and impressive achievements in addressing Germany's key problems. As noted above, A. Merkel's efforts have already resulted in certain positive developments in the settlement of the “immigration crisis” in Europe. However, so far has not been solved the problem of Ukraine, which is also very important for Germany, especially for the German business.

In fact, this problem makes the German leadership take active steps in the Ukrainian direction. At the same time, actions taken by Berlin to Ukraine are rather ambiguous and do not always correspond to its national interests.

So, on the one hand, Germany is increasing the pressure on Russia, forcing it to implement the Minsk Agreements. On the other hand, it actually insists on Ukraine's fulfilling its obligations to make changes in its Constitution relating to the decentralization of the Ukrainian authorities, the elections in the Donbas before the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied Ukrainian territory and the transfer of control of its eastern border to Ukraine.

Such Germany's approaches pacify Russia, and this meets the interests of both Ukraine and the European Union. At the same time, such a position of Germany does not guarantee an immediate end to the armed conflict in the Donbas. On the contrary — it translates it into a protracted (“frozen”) conflict, following the example of Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria.

German Chancellor A. Merkel has already entered the History. However, if she does not abandon her really hard, strong and uncompromising position towards V. Putin's regime, she will remain in the historical memory as the first and actually the only German leader, who managed to curb Moscow's neo-imperial ambitions.