LAST WEEK'S KEY FACTORS AND MAIN TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SITUATION AROUND UKRAINE
(October 03-09, 2016)
I. Major-Profile Events in the Development of the Situation around Ukraine
Against the background of the tension in the Donbas and disruption of the truce in Syria, as well as of de facto recognition by the Netherlands' Special Investigation Commission of the Russian Federation's involvement in the destruction of the Malaysian Boeing-777 in July 2014 over the conflict zone in the East of Ukraine, there is a further aggravation of confrontation between Russia and the West, which is becoming more and more critical.
Thus, after Russia's September strategic command and staff exercises “Caucasus-2016”, in which a scenario of a large-scale war between Russia and NATO/USA was mastered, on 3 October 2016, President V. Putin submitted to the State Duma of Russian a draft law on the suspension of the agreement with the United States on the disposal of weapons-grade plutonium (was concluded in 2000 and provides for the processing of 34 tons of plutonium from each side into the fuel for nuclear power plants).
The Russian side says the reason for that step was “...the emergence of a threat to strategic stability as a result of the USA's hostile actions against the Russian Federation”. At this, representatives of the Russian leadership in their comments point out the possibility of resuming the agreement only if the USA cancel the sanctions against Russia and compensate for the damages caused by them. Besides, Russia puts forward a demand that Washington should give up the plans to strengthen the US military presence near the Russian border.
In a word, the above mentioned circumstances confirm the approach of a deep crisis in the Russian Federation as a result of Western sanctions, which makes V. Putin's regime use the last available means to exert pressure on the United States and Europe.
The evidence of deepening of crisis processes in Russia have already been mentioned in previous publications of “Borysfen Intel” and other analytical centres. According to experts, to date, such processes are already threatening not only Russia's economy and are causing the possibility of the spread of social unrest in the country, but also are posing a danger personally to V. Putin as a result of his environment's dissatisfaction with the negative effects of Western sanctions on their businesses.
These trends may become even more acute in case if the US administration and the EU introduce new sanctions against Russia over Ukraine and Syria, and especially, if the International Court in the Hague starts proceedings on Moscow's involvement in the death of the passengers of the Malaysian aircraft Boeing-777 Flight MH-17 over the Donbas. Now the responsibility will entirely be on the Putin regime as war criminals.
In particular, Malaysia has spread in the UN Security Council a draft resolution on the need to establish an international tribunal to prosecute those responsible for the destruction of the Boeing-777 of Malaysian airlines.
In general, the above–mentioned situation has determined all the key aspects in the development of the military-political situation in the world and around Ukraine. First of all, in this regard, we should point out a real threat of an armed incident between Russia and the United States and other members of the antiterrorist coalition in Syria, which could develop into a wider conflict, and even, it is possible, into a full war with using nuclear weapons and Ukraine's getting inevitably involved in.
On October 7, 2016, the Russian State Duma ratified the agreement on the indefinite placing of the Russian aviation group in Syria. At the same time, despite the increasing pressure from the West, Russia continued active combat operations in Syria. The Aerospace Forces' bombers together with B. Assad's regime's Air Force applied missile and bomb strikes on rebel positions in Aleppo. As before, the strikes caused destruction of civilian objects and civilian casualties.
At the same time, under the pretext of “covering” Russia's naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus, Russians redeployed into Syria an S-300VM air defense system (it was for the first time that a complex of that modification was taken abroad). At this, the official representative of the RF Ministry of Defense Major-General I. Konashenkov expressed Russia's intentions “...to shoot down all unidentified aerial targets over Syria”.
It is significant that none of the rebel or terrorist groups in Syria has cruise missiles or aircraft. Only Russia, B. Assad's regime and the Coalition headed by the USA have them. In this context, quite revealing are the Russian politicians and media's statements about “US forces preparing an attack against B. al-Assad's forces in Syria”. Besides, after the mortar attack on the Russian Embassy in Syria, the Russian side has directly accused the United States of “supporting Syrian terrorists”.
In response, the US Department of Defense addressed Russia with the demand to explain the purpose of the redeployment of its anti-missile system into Syria. At this, taking into consideration the Russian side's above-mentioned statements, the United States expressed the intentions “...to do everything possible to ensure the safety of its aircraft crews who have the right to self-defense”. All the parties perceived the said as “providing the US Air Force with a permission to strike at the Russian air defense system in case the need arises”.
In view of the above-mentioned circumstances, the US military leadership points out a high likelihood of an armed conflict with Russia. Thus, according to the Chief of the Staff of the US Army General M. Milli at the seminar at the Pentagon, “...the war between Russia and the United States is actually guaranteed”.
II. Russia's Armed Aggression against Ukraine
The sharpening of the conflict between Russia and the West over Syria has a direct impact on the situation around Ukraine. Thus, V. Putin's regime makes regular attempts to “exchange” Ukraine for Syria by the aggravation of the situation around the armed conflict in the Donbas and the “Crimean-Tartars issue” in the Crimea, which is intended to exert pressure both on Ukraine and on its Western allies.
2.1. The East of Ukraine (The ATO Zone)
Despite the ceasefire agreement and the beginning of separation of forces in certain parts of the front line, last week the Russian-terrorist forces dramatically stepped up their attacks on the ATO forces' positions and civilian settlements with a peak intensity — up to 60 times per day. It is significant that this peak was exactly on 5 October — the day of the meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk, as well as the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs V. Nuland's visit to Moscow.
At the same time, Russia continued activities to build up the grouping of its forces in the occupied territories of Ukraine. In particular, within the week it redeployed to the Donbas a unit of the 76th Air Assault Division, and a special train of T-64 tanks. Besides, in order to mislead the OSCE Special Observers Monitoring Mission, they are thoroughly masking the Russian troops and mercenaries' positions and military equipment.
Apart from this, Russia and the leaders of the “DPR”/“LPR” have demonstrated the possibility of their independent conduct of elections in the occupied territories of Donbas ignoring the Ukrainian legislation. In particular, on 2 October 2016, in the self-proclaimed republics were held the so-called “primaries” — namely, the surveys of the local population regarding the candidates for positions in the bodies of the occupying government. Ukraine considers these so-called “primaries” in the occupied Donbas as yet another attempt of a brazen disruption of the Minsk negotiation process, as the above-mentioned was a direct violation of the Minsk Agreements in the part of the political aspects of the settlement of the conflict.
Against the background of all these events, on 5 October 2016, in Minsk there was a regular meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group. They discussed the implementation of the agreement of 21 September 2016 on the ceasefire and separation of the forces, determining the new points of the separation of forces, conditions and the format of the elections in the occupied territories, amnesty opportunities for militants, as well as hostage exchange issues. As expected, in the situation around Russia, no decisions were taken.
2.2. The Crimean Peninsula
As the West's pressure on Russia grows, Moscow is making efforts to demonstrate “the international recognition of the Crimea's belonging to Russia”. Thus, at the invitation of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, in the near future the Crimea will be visited by a group of deputies of regional parliaments of the Italian provinces of Veneto, Liguria, Tuscany and Lombardy, which have recognized the “legality” of Russia's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.
At the same time, Russia continues militarizing the Crimea. In particular, an S-400 “Triumph” regimental anti-aircraft missile system is on alert in the Peninsula now.
However, the complication of relations between Russia and the USA/NATO and the EU causes Western countries and international organizations' closer attention to the “Crimean issue”. Thus, the leadership of the EU is considering sanctions against deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, who were “elected” in the occupied Crimea.
2.3. Other Aspects of the Russian Federation's Action against Ukraine and the West
As part of a demonstration of force to the USA/NATO and the EU, a new series of the RF Armed Forces' exercises began on the Western and Arctic directions of Russia. In particular, in October this year on the Russian and Belarusian territory they are going to hold two joint exercises of the Airborne Troops (VDV) of Russia and Belarus. In the exercises will participate more than 1.2 thousand people and 100 pieces of military equipment. In 2016, the number of joint Russian-Belarusian exercises of the VDV has grown by almost a third compared to 2015 — that is almost to 40 per year.
In turn, with the beginning of October 2016, units of the Separate Arctic Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Northern Fleet (NF) of the Russian Federation held the first exercises on landing on the coast of the island of Alexandra Land — the northernmost archipelago of Franz Josef Land. The landing was carried out on board the large landing ship “Kondopoga” with a support of the hydrographic vessel “Vizir”. Besides, during the Arctic march of the ships of the RF’s Northern Fleet, some reconnaissance groups landed from Ka-27 helicopters onto the island of the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago and onto the coast of Cape Chelyuskin. By this, Russia once again demonstrated the existence of its interests in the Arctic and the ability to defend them militarily.
At the same time, Russia continues actions to build up its forces on the Western strategic direction, including strike weapons systems. Thus, under the guise of logistic exercises of the RF Navy's Baltic Fleet, from the area of the city of Ust-Luga to Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation on the civilian ship “Ambal” was thrown an “Iskander-M” operational-tactical missile complex. Its redeployment was followed by Russia's regular provocations in the Baltic region. For example, 5 October 2016, Russian Su-27 fighter planes violated the airspace of Finland, and on October 6, 2016 — that of Estonia.
Along with this, Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the USA in the Asia-Pacific region as well. In particular, in the Far East it is completing the formation of a new Long-Range Bomber Aviation Division consisting of Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS planes. The Division will carry out the task of patrolling the airspace over the Pacific Ocean near Japan, Hawaii and Guam (the places of deployment of the US military bases, including Strategic Air Force).
According to the RF President's Press Secretary D. Peskov, “due to changes in the international situation”, are being discussed the plans to return Russian military bases in Cuba and Vietnam.
III. Ukraine, International Organizations and Leading Western Countries
3.1. International Organizations
The Council of Europe and the EU. Against the background of continuing pressure on Russia, the leadership of the Council of Europe and the EU increase the volume of financial and economic assistance to Ukraine. In particular, within the framework of the Council of Europe Plan of Action for Ukraine, the Council of Europe plans to allocate to our State 45 million Euros for the implementation of reforms. In turn, the European Investment Bank will provide Ukraine with 200 million Euros to upgrade public transport in medium-sized cities (total project cost is estimated at 400 million Euros).
NATO. The leadership of the Alliance has demonstrated firm intentions to continue pressure on Russia. According to the NATO Deputy Secretary General A. Vershbow, during a press conference in the OSCE on 3 October, 2016, the Alliance will not make concessions to Moscow on fundamental issues of global and European security. He pointed out the significant deterioration of the situation in Europe after the Russian annexation of the Crimea and Russia's troops' invasion of the Donbas. Taking this into consideration, A. Vershbow spoke about the need to strengthen the OSCE's role in ensuring security on the European continent, and called on Russia to ensure the Organization's observers' full access in the conflict zone in the East of Ukraine.
3.2. Leading Western Countries
The USA. The firmness and consistency of the United States' position with regard to Russia, Ukraine and Syria, were confirmed by US Secretary of State J. Kerry in his speech themed “The Future of Transatlantic Relations” on October 4, 2016, in Brussels.
According to J. Kerry, the West would like to find a common language with Russia, it is not going to do this at the expense of its own principles, which stipulate the supremacy of international law and freedoms. In this regard, the United States, NATO and the EU will continue to firmly support a stable, unified and democratic Ukraine, and will not lift the sanctions from Russia before the problems of Russia's annexation of the Crimea and occupation of the Donbas are resolved.
At the same time, J. Kerry did not rule out the possibility of introduction of additional sanctions against Russia in response to its actions in Syria, and stressed the need for an international investigation of Russia's actions as a war crime. However, according to him, despite the failure of the agreements with Russia on “the Syrian issue,” the United States will continue efforts to establish peace in Syria.
J. Kerry's statement had preceded, and in fact became the background for the visit to Moscow on October 5 of Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs V. Nuland (accompanied by representatives of the US National Security Council C. Wallander and C. Kupchan), which, in fact, had to put pressure on Russia on the “Ukrainian issue” in the situation of the continuing hostilities in the Donbas. This question was raised by them during the meeting with the Russian President's Assistant for foreign policy Yu. Ushakov and RF President's Assistant V. Surkov (in charge of the self-proclaimed republics in the Donbas).
Due to the position of Russia, which had previously stated “the impossibility of making any breakthrough decisions”, the negotiations actually ended without result. The parties stated the positive nature of the agreement on separating the forces in the Donbas. At the same time, commenting on the results of the meeting, RF President's Press Secretary D. Peskov said, “...the agreement between V. Nuland and V. Surkov to put joint pressure on Ukraine in order to force it to fulfill its obligations under the Minsk Agreements” . Despite the denials of the statement by the US State Department, it is being widely spread and speculatively interpreted by Russian and other media.
Such Moscow's actions, which have led to a further worsening of relations between Russia and the West, have also caused the changes of positions of the Republican presidential candidate D. Trump who had previously been expressing openly pro-Russian views. Thus, in his latest statement, he accused Russia of violating the ceasefire in Syria and of the cyber attacks against the USA, and also pointed out the need to strengthen and enhance the security of NATO countries in Central and Eastern Europe.
Germany. For its part, the leadership of Germany also plans to step up pressure on Russia on “the Syrian issue”. Thus, the country's leadership is considering the question of introducing new sanctions against the Russian Federation. In particular, such sanctions could include introduction of visa and economic restrictions for the persons involved in Russia's actions in Syria. Commenting on the issue, the head of the Bundestag Committee on Foreign Affairs N. Rettgen called the actions in Syria “war crime” and urged the EU countries to strengthen sanctions against the Russian Federation.
France. Russia's actions in Syria were condemned by France too. At the same time, the leadership of France has developed a draft of a new UN Security Council resolution for a ceasefire in Aleppo and delivery of humanitarian assistance to the city.
October 6 , 2016, Moscow was visited by Foreign Minister of France Jean Herault, who handed the document to Russia's Foreign Minister S. Lavrov. At this, J. Herault called the events in the city of Aleppo “...barbarism, which only generates jihadism”.
IV. Other Important Trends and Developments Concerning Ukraine's National Interests
Georgia. According to the results of elections, the Parliament of Georgia consists of the three parties: the ruling party “Georgian Dream”; the party created by the ex-President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili — “United National Movement” and the pro-Russian “Alliance of Patriots of Georgia” party.
The results became known after 99.9 % of votes on proportional lists in parliamentary elections had been counted.
According to the CEC, the first place in the elections was won by the ruling party — “Georgian Dream” — 48.67 %, followed by the former ruling party — “United National Movement” — 27.11 %. The “Georgian Patriots Alliance” party won 5.01 % of votes needed to overcome the entry barrier to the Parliament.
At this, it is pointed out that the OSCE has recognized elections in Georgia competitive and well-organized.
How events in Georgia will develop in the future and how they will influence Ukraine's national interests — we will see very soon.
V. Main Trends in the Development of the Situation around Ukraine in the Future
5.1. Key Events and Trends that Will Be Most Important for Ukraine
Given the intransigence of Russia's positions, Western countries and international organizations to defend their interests, should expect an increase in mutual pressure of sides using political and economic, as well as military methods.
In particular, Russia can completely give up the peaceful settlement of the situation in the Donbas and to intensify the armed confrontation in the conflict zone, as well as to expand the scale of the fighting in Syria on the side of the Assad regime. At this, against the rebels it can use both, the Russian Federation's VKS and groups of Russian mercenaries (from 3 to 5 thousand people), located in Syria. Russian troops' actions in Syria will secured by the S-300VM air defense complex, which has recently been delivered to Tartous.
In the nearest future the Russian Armed Forces' group in Syria and around it will be strengthened by the arrival in the Mediterranean Sea of the carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” heavy aircraft carrier of the Northern Fleet of the Russian Federation, as well as by two small missile ships — “Serpukhov” and “Zelyonyi Dol” from the Black Sea Fleet of the RF Navy.
These Russia's actions will be complemented by new large-scale activities within the framework of operational and combat training of the Russian Armed Forces. Besides, as a last means of influencing the USA/NATO and the EU, Moscow can go to withdrawing from the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (START) and Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF).
At the same time, in order to strengthen its international positions, Russia will intensify contacts with countries that it considers to be its potential partners. In particular, on 10 October 2016, on the sidelines of the World Energy Congress in Istanbul Russian President V. Putin will meet with the head of the Republic of Turkey R. Erdogan. Besides, in October 2016, there will be V. Putin's visit to France.
For its part, the USA and the EU will continue to tighten sanctions against Russia. In this context, the most negative value for Moscow will be an embargo on the import of Russian oil as it once was done against Iran and forced him to make concessions to the international community on the issue of Iran's nuclear program. Along with this, the USA and European countries may call into question the legitimacy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation that would be justified by holding Russian parliamentary elections in the occupied Ukrainian Crimea. The latter may call into question the legitimacy of the entire ruling regime in Russia and V. Putin personally.
5.2. Prospects for the Development of Events in the Conflict Zones in Ukraine
Within the framework of Russia's confrontation with the West, Moscow will continue provocations in the conflict zone in the East of Ukraine. At this, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the contact line, according to the agreements of 21 September this year, is likely to be used by Russia to extend the territory under the control of the “DPR” and “LPR”. After that, the Russian side will again activate to the most the armed conflict in the Donbas with simultaneous imposing on Ukraine and its Western allies regular talks on a ceasefire and separation of forces, this time on the new front line.
Besides, in case if the confrontation between Russia and the USA/NATO turns into the armed conflict, Putin's regime may begin a full-scale operation in the East of Ukraine, including in order to create a land corridor to the Crimea and Trans-Dniester. Such a scenario was mastered by Russia during the “Caucasus-2016” SCPE. Evidence of this possibility is Moscow's build up of the grouping of its troops in the occupied territories of Ukraine (primarily by the airborne, tank, sabotage and reconnaissance units), as well as the deployment of new units of the RF Armed Forces near the Ukrainian border.
5.3. Other Important Events that Will Have an Impact on Ukraine's Interests and Security
Within the framework of Ukraine's European integration, of great importance for our State will be the “Ukraine-EU” summit, which is tentatively scheduled for November 24 this year. In particular, one of the items on the agenda of the meeting should be the issue of simplifying the visa regime between the European Union and Ukraine. Previously this issue will be discussed on 27 October, 2016, at the level of the EU Ambassadors.
According to European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy J. Hahn, “...the situation on simplification of visa regime with Ukraine will be the same as in the case of Georgia. Both countries have met all the EU requirements. Nobody from the European Parliament or representatives of the countries have spoken against the simplifying of the visa regime, so there should be no problems”.
