May 27, 2014

Iranian Crossroads: Where to go? Part 1. Iran: the geopolitical factor

The Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel” affords ground to the analysts generation for expressing their point of view regarding the political, economic, security, information situation in Ukraine and in the world in general, according to their personal geopolitical studies and analyses.

 

Note that an authors’ point of view
can disagree with the editor’s one

Konstantynova Vira

Born in Mariupol. In 2012 graduated from Mariupol State University, Bachelor Degree in International Relations.

In 2013 graduated from Odesa I. Mechnikov National University, international relations analyst with in-depth knowledge of Greek and English.

Since December 1, 2013 — a PhD student at Mariupol State University.

 

Iranian Crossroads: Where to go? Part 1 Iran: the geopolitical factor

The Ukrainian-Russian crisis has not only significantly shaken positions of the international law, but has actually confirmed the existence of a deep crisis in the system of international relations. Significant structural changes in the global system, observed since the collapse of the Soviet Union, have created an illusion that the «cold war» is over, and thus there will be no drastic changes in the political map of the world any more. But local conflicts, creating new and new forms of threats to national security, have become an integral component of the first decade of the 21st century. The situation in Georgia in 2008 openly showed such tendencies, which are not mentioned aloud in public on the diplomatic level, but which were apparent in the foreign policy of individual states for quite some time.

The internal political conflict has gone beyond the borders of the state and provoked a confrontation on the world stage, already called by experts the most threatening to international security since the end of the «cold war»

What has happened in Ukraine has already been given a broad expert estimation. This page of the modern Ukrainian history will be studied throughout the world. Of course, it is impossible to invalidate the meaning of the Maidan for Ukrainian and international community. But it was the Crimean crisis that dotted all «i»s. The internal political conflict has gone beyond the borders of the state and provoked a confrontation on the world stage, already called by experts the most threatening to international security since the end of the «cold war».

Forecasting possible future scenarios of the development of the situation before and after the presidential elections of May 25, we should take into consideration the fact that on the deliberateness of this or that step of the Ukrainian leadership depends not only Ukraine's unity, but also its very existence as a state. At this stage, the broad support of the world community is one of the essential factors in preserving Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Ukrainian side's focus on a diplomatic solution to the situation and readiness for dialogue should be complemented by using other significant factors. According to the author of these lines, along with the People's Republic of China, which is able to adjust the global configuration of forces, the role of an influential player at this stage fits the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The victory of the liberal politician H. Rouhani in the presidential elections in 2013 was perceived in Washington with cautious optimism
The victory of the liberal politician H. Rouhani in the presidential elections in 2013 was perceived in Washington with cautious optimism

Of course, changes in Ukraine are not directly related to Iran, but processes determined by these changes will certainly be felt by Tehran. In relation to the Ukrainian crisis, Iran on a diplomatic level sticks to the neutral position, but the question is: whose side will Iran take in this confrontation between the East and West? First of all, you need to take into consideration the fact that the Iranian political circles are unspoken adherents of the Russian Federation's course and of pragmatic economic cooperation with Europe. The United States, acting as a global center of gravity, so far are not considered a partner by Iran. Taking into consideration the fact that the Islamic Republic of Iran since 1979 has no diplomatic relations with the United States, the victory of the liberal politician H. Rouhani in the presidential elections in 2013 was perceived in Washington with cautious optimism. Precautions perceived him as a candidate and also Russia. After coming to power H. Rouhani were observed positive developments in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, so American diplomacy seriously took it possible normalization of political relations between the two countries. The first telephone conversation between the two presidents in September 2013 was a landmark event in bilateral relations over the past thirty years. But it does not mean that disappear hostile rhetoric, dominant since the Islamic revolution, and mutual suspicion in relation to each other. Also, definitely affects the situation priority US-Israeli relations.

Launching of Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant
Launching of Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant
 http://ria.ru/atomtec_news/

Since the inauguration of the new president of Iran in August 2013 before the confrontation in Ukraine in November 2013 took almost four months. Made after the flight from the country Yanukovych official policy statements by the representatives of Iran indicate their cautious support for the right of the Ukrainian people to determine their own future.

(Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Ukraine: the position of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the current developments in Ukraine from 24.02.2014.: Http://www.iranembassy.com.ua/Ua/politic/ir-ukr/355-iruarevannonc.html ).

However, on the one hand, the close economic and cultural relations between Iran and Russia, and, on the other hand, the confrontation with the «imperialist world» led by the U.S. as a permanent imperative of post-revolutionary Iranian society, do not allow the Iranian leadership to openly support the integrity of Ukraine. At the same time, a «thaw» in US-Iranian relations, especially on the issue of Iran's nuclear program, Iran does not give the opportunity to support acts of the Russian Federation. According to this author, Tehran will not neglect provided consistent support of Russia regarding its nuclear program. In addition, Russia has proved itself a reliable partner in realization of the Bushehr project, which was completed with the help of the Russians in an unfavorable situation around Iran's foreign policy and reinforced sanctions regime against him in the last decade. By the way, Ukraine was able to join the project, but abandoned it under pressure from the U.S. because of what time of commissioning of the Bushehr plant were pushed several times. Therefore Russia for Iran is still a more predictable and time-tested partner. And if Tehran faced with excessive demands and extremely strong pressure from the West during the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, he can resort to the use of the Russian factor. In turn, Russia and Iran giving away the nuclear card in the arrangement with the Syrian trump card against the United States and Europe, hoping to influence the position of the latter in relation to the actions of the Russians in Ukraine.

Friends and enemies of Ukraine: results of the UN General Assembly vote
Friends and enemies of Ukraine: results of the UN General Assembly vote.
A resolution against the outcome of the referendum in the Crimea have supported 100 countries, 58 abstentions. Armenia, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, North Korea, Nicaragua, Russia, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela and Zimbabwe  voted for the resolution against the outcome of the referendum in the Crimea
.
http://obozrevatel.com/

Iran's policy of «active neutrality» on the Ukrainian question dictated, according to the author, not allied relations with Russia, and with the interests of national security of Iran

In fact, Iran now expectant position. Notable is the fact that Iran has not participated in the vote on March 27 by UN General Assembly resolution A/RES/68/262 in support of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, by the way, as well as its regional enemy Israel. Although, if you look better, the question of the territorial integrity of Iran is also relevant because of living in many communities within its Kurds and Azerbaijanis. Kurdish issue could induce Iran to vote «for» the territorial integrity of our country. But that's why he did not participate in the voting on such an important issue, the question remains open. Do not take this as a manifestation of pro-Russian stance of Iran. According to the author, the reality is that Iran is a rapidly growing regional power trying to pursue an independent foreign policy, proceeding from its national interests. Iranian leadership attaches great importance to the establishment of close relations with its regional environment in the Persian Gulf, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, South and Central Asia, the Caspian and Caucasus regions. In this respect, the power of gravity to the East or West «block» depends on the role of these two units in the above mentioned regions. From this perspective, Tehran's policy in respect of the Ukrainian crisis should prevent the escalation of tensions between Russia and the West’s vital interests in the regions of Iran. So Iran's policy of «active neutrality» on the Ukrainian question dictated, according to the author, not allied relations with Russia, and with the interests of national security of Iran.

U.S. military bases in the UK and the Middle East
U.S. military bases in the UK and the Middle East
 http://www.odnako.org/

Realizing that a partnership with Russia will definitely affect the decisions of Iran, Iranian pro researchers note that although Iran and will officially remain neutral with regard to Ukraine, however, they tend to believe that the outcome of the crisis may indicate how the weakening of relations and on strengthening ties with Russia. Since both countries have many common strategic interests. This thesis argues that the possible return to Afghanistan Taliban leadership can revive in this country of Al-Qaeda, which is a direct threat to the security of both countries. In addition, over the past two decades, Russia and Iran closely monitor the actions of expanding to the east of Europe and the United States, NATO, almost insensitive to the security of either Moscow or Tehran. As a threat to the security of Iran and Russia considered instability and creation of U.S. military bases in Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf. These geopolitical sensitive points form a natural basis for cooperation between Iran and Russia. But that's changing the secular components of the political system of Iran for a more liberal, and a statement of pragmatism in approaches suggest a possible slight revision of foreign policy priorities and their adjustment, based on the situation.

To be continued.